Magma Pressure-Temperature-Time Paths During Mafic Explosive Eruptions

We have constrained syneruptive pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) paths of mafic magmas using a combination of short-timescale cooling and decompression chronometers. Recent work has shown that the thermal histories of crystals in the last few seconds to hours of eruption can be constrained using concentration gradients of MgO inside olivine-hosted melt inclusions, produced in response to syneruptive cooling and crystallization of olivine on the inclusion walls. We have applied this technique to the study of melt inclusions erupted by arc and ocean island volcanoes, including the 1974 subplinian eruption of Fuego volcano; the 1977 fire-fountain eruption of Seguam volcano; and three eruptions of Kilauea volcano (episode 1 of the 1959 Kilauea Iki fire-fountain eruption, the 1500 CE vigorous fire-fountain eruption, and the 1650 CE subplinian eruption). Of the eruptions studied so far, melt inclusions from the 1959 Kilauea Iki eruption record the highest syneruptive cooling rates (3–11°C/s) and the shortest cooling durations (4–19 s), while inclusions from the 1974 Fuego eruption record the slowest cooling rates (0.1–1.7°C/s) and longest cooling durations (21–368 s). The high cooling rates inferred for the Kilauea Iki and Seguam fire fountain eruptions are consistent with air quenching over tens of seconds during and after fragmentation and eruption. Melt inclusions sampled from the interiors of small (∼6 cm diameter) volcanic bombs at Fuego are found to have cooled more slowly on average than inclusions sampled from ash (with particle diameters < 2 mm) during the same eruption, as expected based on conductive cooling models. We find evidence for a systematic relationship between cooling rates and decompression rates of magmas, in which rapidly ascending gas-bearing magmas experience slower cooling during ascent and eruption than slowly ascending magmas. Our magma P-T-t constraints for the Kilauea Iki eruption are in broad agreement with isentropic models that show that the dominant driver of cooling in the conduit is adiabatic expansion of a vapor phase; however, at Fuego and Seguam, our results suggest a significant role for latent heat production and/or open-system degassing (both of which violate assumptions required for isentropic ascent). We thereby caution against the application of isentropic conduit models to magmas containing relatively high initial water concentrations (e.g., arc magmas containing ∼4 wt% water). We note that several processes that have been inferred to occur in volcanic conduits such as magma stalling, magma mingling, open- and closed-system degassing, vapor fluxing, and vapor accumulation (in foam layers or as slugs of gas) are associated with different implied vapor volume fractions during syneruptive ascent. Given the sensitivity of magma P-T-t paths to vapor volume fraction, the syneruptive thermometer presented here may be a means of identifying these processes during the seconds to hours preceding the eruption of mafic magmas

Does the revised cardiac risk index predict cardiac complications following elective lung resection?

Background: Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and Thoracic Revised Cardiac Risk Index (ThRCRI) score were developed to predict the risks of postoperative major cardiac complications in generic surgical population and thoracic surgery respectively. This study aims to determine the accuracy of these scores in predicting the risk of developing cardiac complications including atrial arrhythmias after lung resection surgery in adults. Methods: We studied 703 patients undergoing lung resection surgery in a tertiary thoracic surgery centre. Observed outcome measures of postoperative cardiac morbidity and mortality were compared against those predicted by risk. Results: Postoperative major cardiac complications and supraventricular arrhythmias occurred in 4.8% of patients. Both index scores had poor discriminative ability for predicting postoperative cardiac complications with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) for the RCRI score and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66) for the ThRCRI score. Conclusions: In our cohort, RCRI and ThRCRI scores failed to accurately predict the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing elective resection of lung cancer. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) recommendation to seek a cardiology referral for all asymptomatic pre-operative lung resection patients with > 3 RCRI risk factors is thus unlikely to be of clinical benefit

Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

Background: Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods: We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results: We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions: While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical

Liver transplantation for type I and type IV glycogen storage disease

Progressive liver failure or hepatic complications of the primary disease led to orthotopic liver transplantation in eight children with glycogen storage disease over a 9-year period. One patient had glycogen storage disease (GSD) type I (von Gierke disease) and seven patients had type IV GSD (Andersen disease). As previously reported [19], a 16.5-year-old-girl with GSD type I was successfully treated in 1982 by orthotopic liver transplantation under cyclosporine and steroid immunosuppression. The metabolic consequences of the disease have been eliminated, the renal function and size have remained normal, and the patient has lived a normal young adult life. A late portal venous thrombosis was treated successfully with a distal splenorenal shunt. Orthotopic liver transplantation was performed in seven children with type N GSD who had progressive hepatic failure. Two patients died early from technical complications. The other five have no evidence of recurrent hepatic amylopectinosis after 1.1–5.8 postoperative years. They have had good physical and intellectual maturation. Amylopectin was found in many extrahepatic tissues prior to surgery, but cardiopathy and skeletal myopathy have not developed after transplantation. Postoperative heart biopsies from patients showed either minimal amylopectin deposits as long as 4.5 years following transplantation or a dramatic reduction in sequential biopsies from one patient who initially had dense myocardial deposits. Serious hepatic derangement is seen most commonly in types T and IV GSD. Liver transplantation cures the hepatic manifestations of both types. The extrahepatic deposition of abnormal glycogen appears not to be problematic in type I disease, and while potentially more threatening in type IV disease, may actually exhibit signs of regression after hepatic allografting

The effect of Ku on telomere replication time is mediated by telomere length but is independent of histone tail acetylation

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Report 29: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study

The health care system in England has been highly affected by the surge in demand due to patients afflicted by COVID-19. Yet the impact of the pandemic on the care seeking behaviour of patients and thus on Emergency department (ED) services is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. In this report, we aimed to assess how the reorganisation of hospital care and admission policies to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic affected ED attendances and emergency hospital admissions. We performed time-series analyses of present year vs historic (2015-2019) trends of ED attendances between March 12 and May 31 at two large central London hospitals part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT) and compared these to regional and national trends. Historic attendances data to ICHNT and publicly available NHS situation reports were used to calibrate time series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting models. We thus predicted the (conterfactual) expected number of ED attendances between March 12 (when the first public health measure leading to lock-down started in England) to May 31, 2020 (when the analysis was censored) at ICHNT, at all acute London Trusts and nationally. The forecasted trends were compared to observed data for the same periods of time. Lastly, we analysed the trends at ICHNT disaggregating by mode of arrival, distance from postcode of patient residence to hospital and primary diagnosis amongst those that were subsequently admitted to hospital and compared these data to an average for the same period of time in the years 2015 to 2019. During the study period (January 1 to May 31, 2020) there was an overall decrease in ED attendances of 35% at ICHNT, of 50% across all London NHS Trusts and 53% nationally. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged younger than 65 and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport). Increasing distance (km) from postcode of residence to hospital was a significant predictor of reduced attendances, which could not be explained by weighted (for population numbers) mean index of multiple deprivation. Non-COVID emergency admissions to hospital after March 12 fell by 48% at ICHNT compared to previous years. This was seen across all disease areas, including acute coronary syndromes, stroke and cancer-related emergencies. The overall non-COVID-19 hospitalisation mortality risk did not differ (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19), also in comparison to previous years. Our findings suggest emergency healthcare seeking to hospitals drastically changed amongst the population within the catchment area of ICHNT. This trend was echoed regionally and nationally, suggesting those suffering a medical emergency may not have attended other (i.e. closer-to-home) hospitals. Furthermore, our time-series analyses showed that, even after COVID-19 cases and deaths decreased (i.e. from early April), non-COVID-19 ED attendances did not increase. The impact of emergency triaging systems (e.g. 111 calls) and alternative (e.g. private hospital, chemist) health services on these trends remains unknown. However, another recent report found increased non-COVID excess deaths in the community, which may be partially explained by people experiencing an emergency and not attending health services at all. Whether those that attended ED services have done so with longer delays from the moment of emergency onset also remains unknown. National analyses into the factors causing reduced attendances to ED services and strategies to revert these negative trends are urgently needed

Predicting Phenotypic Diversity and the Underlying Quantitative Molecular Transitions

During development, signaling networks control the formation of multicellular patterns. To what extent quantitative fluctuations in these complex networks may affect multicellular phenotype remains unclear. Here, we describe a computational approach to predict and analyze the phenotypic diversity that is accessible to a developmental signaling network. Applying this framework to vulval development in C. elegans, we demonstrate that quantitative changes in the regulatory network can render ~500 multicellular phenotypes. This phenotypic capacity is an order-of-magnitude below the theoretical upper limit for this system but yet is large enough to demonstrate that the system is not restricted to a select few outcomes. Using metrics to gauge the robustness of these phenotypes to parameter perturbations, we identify a select subset of novel phenotypes that are the most promising for experimental validation. In addition, our model calculations provide a layout of these phenotypes in network parameter space. Analyzing this landscape of multicellular phenotypes yielded two significant insights. First, we show that experimentally well-established mutant phenotypes may be rendered using non-canonical network perturbations. Second, we show that the predicted multicellular patterns include not only those observed in C. elegans, but also those occurring exclusively in other species of the Caenorhabditis genus. This result demonstrates that quantitative diversification of a common regulatory network is indeed demonstrably sufficient to generate the phenotypic differences observed across three major species within the Caenorhabditis genus. Using our computational framework, we systematically identify the quantitative changes that may have occurred in the regulatory network during the evolution of these species. Our model predictions show that significant phenotypic diversity may be sampled through quantitative variations in the regulatory network without overhauling the core network architecture. Furthermore, by comparing the predicted landscape of phenotypes to multicellular patterns that have been experimentally observed across multiple species, we systematically trace the quantitative regulatory changes that may have occurred during the evolution of the Caenorhabditis genus

A mechanism for the inhibition of DNA-PK-mediated DNA sensing by a virus

The innate immune system is critical in the response to infection by pathogens and it is activated by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) binding to pathogen associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). During viral infection, the direct recognition of the viral nucleic acids, such as the genomes of DNA viruses, is very important for activation of innate immunity. Recently, DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK), a heterotrimeric complex consisting of the Ku70/Ku80 heterodimer and the catalytic subunit DNA-PKcs was identified as a cytoplasmic PRR for DNA that is important for the innate immune response to intracellular DNA and DNA virus infection. Here we show that vaccinia virus (VACV) has evolved to inhibit this function of DNA-PK by expression of a highly conserved protein called C16, which was known to contribute to virulence but by an unknown mechanism. Data presented show that C16 binds directly to the Ku heterodimer and thereby inhibits the innate immune response to DNA in fibroblasts, characterised by the decreased production of cytokines and chemokines. Mechanistically, C16 acts by blocking DNA-PK binding to DNA, which correlates with reduced DNA-PK-dependent DNA sensing. The C-terminal region of C16 is sufficient for binding Ku and this activity is conserved in the variola virus (VARV) orthologue of C16. In contrast, deletion of 5 amino acids in this domain is enough to knockout this function from the attenuated vaccine strain modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA). In vivo a VACV mutant lacking C16 induced higher levels of cytokines and chemokines early after infection compared to control viruses, confirming the role of this virulence factor in attenuating the innate immune response. Overall this study describes the inhibition of DNA-PK-dependent DNA sensing by a poxvirus protein, adding to the evidence that DNA-PK is a critical component of innate immunity to DNA viruses

Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics

Biphasic investigation of contact mechanics in natural human hips during activities

The aim of this study was to determine the cartilage contact mechanics and the associated fluid pressurisation of the hip joint under eight daily activities, using a three-dimensional finite element hip model with biphasic cartilage layers and generic geometries. Loads with spatial and temporal variations were applied over time and the time-dependent performance of the hip cartilage during walking was also evaluated. It was found that the fluid support ratio was over 90% during the majority of the cycles for all the eight activities. A reduced fluid support ratio was observed for the time at which the contact region slid towards the interior edge of the acetabular cartilage, but these occurred when the absolute level of the peak contact stress was minimal. Over 10 cycles of gait, the peak contact stress and peak fluid pressure remained constant, but a faster process of fluid exudation was observed for the interior edge region of the acetabular cartilage. The results demonstrate the excellent function of the hip cartilage within which the solid matrix is prevented from high levels of stress during activities owing to the load shared by fluid pressurisation. The findings are important in gaining a better understanding of the hip function during daily activities, as well as the pathology of hip degeneration and potential for future interventions. They provide a basis for future subject-specific biphasic investigations of hip performance during activities