Prevention of non-communicable disease in a population in nutrition transition: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study phase II

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) is a long term integrated community-based program for prevention of non-communicable disorders (NCD) by development of a healthy lifestyle and reduction of NCD risk factors. The study begun in 1999, is ongoing, to be continued for at least 20 years. A primary survey was done to collect baseline data in 15005 individuals, over 3 years of age, selected from cohorts of three medical heath centers. A questionnaire for past medical history and data was completed during interviews; blood pressure, pulse rate, and anthropometrical measurements and a limited physical examination were performed and lipid profiles, fasting blood sugar and 2-hours-postload-glucose challenge were measured. A DNA bank was also collected. For those subjects aged over 30 years, Rose questionnaire was completed and an electrocardiogram was taken. Data collected were directly stored in computers as database software- computer assisted system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of lifestyle modification in preventing or postponing the development of NCD risk factors and outcomes in the TLGS population.</p> <p>Design and methods</p> <p>In phase II of the TLGS, lifestyle interventions were implemented in 5630 people and 9375 individuals served as controls. Primary, secondary and tertiary interventions were designed based on specific target groups including schoolchildren, housewives, and high-risk persons. Officials of various sectors such as health, education, municipality, police, media, traders and community leaders were actively engaged as decision makers and collaborators. Interventional strategies were based on lifestyle modifications in diet, smoking and physical activity through face-to-face education, leaflets & brochures, school program alterations, training volunteers as health team and treating patients with NCD risk factors. Collection of demographic, clinical and laboratory data will be repeated every 3 years to assess the effects of different interventions in the intervention group as compared to control group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This controlled community intervention will test the possibility of preventing or delaying the onset of non-communicable risk factors and disorders in a population in nutrition transition.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN52588395</p

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Waist circumference has heterogeneous impact on development of diabetes in different populations : Longitudinal comparative study between Australia and Iran

Aims : Comparing waist circumference (WC) role in diabetes risk prediction and diagnosis of metabolic syndrome (MS) in different populations.Methods : Population-based samples from Australia (n = 9026) and Iran (n = 8259) were studied in 2000 and followed for 4 years. Follow-up attendance was 58% and mean age was 51 vs. 47. Pearson correlations calculated between WC and other MS components. ROC for the role of WC in the prediction of incident diabetes was used.Results : Prevalences of MS (48% vs. 28%), an increased WC (58.5% vs. 54.5%), low HDL-C (35% vs. 11.2%), high triglyceride (52.2% vs. 29.6%) were significantly higher in Iran. Fasting glucose &ge;5.6 mmol/L was higher in Australia (26% vs. 23%). Hypertension was no different (38%). Pearson correlations between WC and other MS components were stronger in Australians: FPG (0.32 vs. 0.2), HDL (0.47 vs. 0.16), TG (0.38 vs. 0.30) and SBP (0.38 vs. 0.36). Among women, area under ROC curve for WC as a predictor for diabetes was significantly higher for Australians (0.76 vs. 0.68, p &lt; 0.001) with no difference among men (0.69 vs. 0.71, p = 0.4).Conclusion : WC was more strongly related to other components of MS in Australia. Association between WC and MS or incident diabetes varies between ethnicities.<br /