Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

Breakdown of weak-field magnetotransport at a metallic quantum critical point

We show how the collapse of an energy scale in a quantum critical metal can lead to physics beyond the weak-field limit usually used to compute transport quantities. For a density-wave transition we show that the presence of a finite magnetic field at the critical point leads to discontinuities in the transport coefficients as temperature tends to zero. The origin of these discontinuities lies in the breakdown of the weak field Jones-Zener expansion which has previously been used to argue that magneto-transport coefficients are continuous at simple quantum critical points. The presence of potential scattering and magnetic breakdown rounds the discontinuities over a window determined by tau Delta < 1 where Delta is the order parameter and tau is the quasiparticle elastic lifetime.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures RevTeX forma

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences

Objectives: Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision

Spectroscopy of Seven Cataclysmic Variables with Periods Above Five Hours

We present spectroscopy of seven cataclysmic variable stars with orbital periods P(orb) greater than 5 hours, all but one of which are known to be dwarf novae. Using radial velocity measurements we improve on previous orbital period determinations, or derive periods for the first time. The stars and their periods are TT Crt, 0.2683522(5) d; EZ Del, 0.2234(5) d; LL Lyr, 0.249069(4) d; UY Pup, 0.479269(7) d; RY Ser, 0.3009(4) d; CH UMa, 0.3431843(6) d; and SDSS J081321+452809, 0.2890(4) d. For each of the systems we detect the spectrum of the secondary star, estimate its spectral type, and derive a distance based on the surface brightness and Roche lobe constraints. In five systems we also measure the radial velocity curve of the secondary star, estimate orbital inclinations, and where possible estimate distances based on the MV(max) vs.P(orb) relation found by Warner. In concordance with previous studies, we find that all the secondary stars have, to varying degrees, cooler spectral types than would be expected if they were on the main sequence at the measured orbital period.Comment: 25 pages, 2 figures, accepted for Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacifi

Zonal image analysis of tumour vascular perfusion, hypoxia, and necrosis

A number of laboratories are utilising both hypoxia and perfusion markers to spatially quantify tumour oxygenation and vascular distributions, and scientists are increasingly turning to automated image analysis methods to quantify such interrelationships. In these studies, the presence of regions of necrosis in the immunohistochemical sections remains a potentially significant source of error. In the present work, frozen MCa-4 mammary tumour sections were used to obtain a series of corresponding image montages. Total vessels were identified using CD31 staining, perfused vessels by DiOC7 staining, hypoxia by EF5/Cy3 uptake, and necrosis by haematoxylin and eosin staining. Our goal was to utilise image analysis techniques to spatially quantitate hypoxic marker binding as a function of distance from the nearest blood vessel. Several refinements to previous imaging methods are described: (1) hypoxia marker images are quantified in terms of their intensity levels, thus providing an analysis of the gradients in hypoxia with increasing distances from blood vessels, (2) zonal imaging masks are derived, which permit spatial sampling of images at precisely defined distances from blood vessels, as well as the omission of necrotic artifacts, (3) thresholding techniques are applied to omit holes in the tissue sections, and (4) distance mapping is utilised to define vascular spacing

Development of a Soil Carbon Index for Iowa Mineral Soils

A carbon index (Cl) is one of many soil quality indicators that depends on organic carbon concentration. One of the values of a soil carbon index is in determining the impact of agriculture practices (i.e., tillage, crop rotation, N management, etc.) on soil organic matter status of mineral soils. Interactions of climate, parent material, topography, time, and organisms including human activities influence soil organic carbon (SOC). This study developed a soil carbon index for mineral soil map units in Iowa using data collected by the Iowa Cooperative Soil Survey Laboratory and the USDA Soil Survey Laboratory for over 2,300 soil map units across the state in the past 20-30 years. The results show that the soil CI is highly influenced by soil forming factors. The highest soil carbon index was associated with soil map units of soils that are poorly drained, have moderately fine textures, and are on relatively flat topography as in the Clarion-Nicollet-Webster soils association area in north-central Iowa. Additionally, there was a negative correlation between the number of hectares of soils formed under deciduous forest vegetation and CI values within a county. The CI is also related to soil productivity in the state. Fifty five percent of the variability of the corn suitability ratings was explained by the CI. The CI is a valuable tool in evaluating soil organic matter status, productivity of Iowa soils, and land valu

Smart automotive technology adherence to the law: (de)constructing road rules for autonomous system development, verification and safety

Driving is an intuitive task that requires skill, constant alertness and vigilance for unexpected events. The driving task also requires long concentration spans, focusing on the entire task for prolonged periods, and sophisticated negotiation skills with other road users including wild animals. Modern motor vehicles include an array of smart assistive and autonomous driving systems capable of subsuming some, most, or in limited cases, all of the driving task. Building these smart automotive systems requires software developers with highly technical software engineering skills, and now a lawyer’s in-depth knowledge of traffic legislation as well. This article presents an approach for deconstructing the complicated legalese of traffic law and representing its requirements and flow. Our approach (de)constructs road rules in legal terminology and specifies them in ‘structured English logic’ that is expressed as ‘Boolean logic’ for automation and ‘Lawmaps’ for visualization. We demonstrate an example using these tools leading to the construction and validation of a ‘Bayesian Network model’. We strongly believe these tools to be approachable by programmers and the general public, useful in development of Artificial Intelligence to underpin motor vehicle smart systems, and in validation to ensure these systems are considerate of the law when making decisions.fals