9,758 research outputs found

    Decision Support Software for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Networks

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    Thermal fluctuations in moderately damped Josephson junctions: Multiple escape and retrapping, switching- and return-current distributions and hysteresis

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    A crossover at a temperature T* in the temperature dependence of the width s of the distribution of switching currents of moderately damped Josephson junctions has been reported in a number of recent publications, with positive ds/dT and IV characteristics associated with underdamped behaviour for lower temperatures T<T*, and negative ds/dT and IV characteristics resembling overdamped behaviour for higher temperatures T>T*. We have investigated in detail the behaviour of Josephson junctions around the temperature T* by using Monte Carlo simulations including retrapping from the running state into the supercurrent state as given by the model of Ben-Jacob et al. We develop discussion of the important role of multiple escape and retrapping events in the moderate-damping regime, in particular considering the behaviour in the region close to T*. We show that the behaviour is more fully understood by considering two crossover temperatures, and that the shape of the distribution and s(T) around T*, as well as at lower T<T*, are largely determined by the shape of the conventional thermally activated switching distribution. We show that the characteristic temperatures T* are not unique for a particular Josephson junction, but have some dependence on the ramp rate of the applied bias current. We also consider hysteresis in moderately damped Josephson junctions and discuss the less commonly measured distribution of return currents for a decreasing current ramp. We find that some hysteresis should be expected to persist above T* and we highlight the importance, even well below T*, of accounting properly for thermal fluctuations when determining the damping parameter Q.Comment: Accepted for publication in PR

    Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors

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    It is well known that Bayes’ theorem (with likelihood ratios) can be used to calculate the impact of evidence, such as a ‘match’ of some feature of a person. Typically the feature of interest is the DNA profile, but the method applies in principle to any feature of a person or object, including not just DNA, fingerprints, or footprints, but also more basic features such as skin colour, height, hair colour or even name. Notwithstanding concerns about the extensiveness of databases of such features, a serious challenge to the use of Bayes in such legal contexts is that its standard formulaic representations are not readily understandable to non-statisticians. Attempts to get round this problem usually involve representations based around some variation of an event tree. While this approach works well in explaining the most trivial instance of Bayes’ theorem (involving a single hypothesis and a single piece of evidence) it does not scale up to realistic situations. In particular, even with a single piece of match evidence, if we wish to incorporate the possibility that there are potential errors (both false positives and false negatives) introduced at any stage in the investigative process, matters become very complex. As a result we have observed expert witnesses (in different areas of speciality) routinely ignore the possibility of errors when presenting their evidence. To counter this, we produce what we believe is the first full probabilistic solution of the simple case of generic match evidence incorporating both classes of testing errors. Unfortunately, the resultant event tree solution is too complex for intuitive comprehension. And, crucially, the event tree also fails to represent the causal information that underpins the argument. In contrast, we also present a simple-to-construct graphical Bayesian Network (BN) solution that automatically performs the calculations and may also be intuitively simpler to understand. Although there have been multiple previous applications of BNs for analysing forensic evidence—including very detailed models for the DNA matching problem, these models have not widely penetrated the expert witness community. Nor have they addressed the basic generic match problem incorporating the two types of testing error. Hence we believe our basic BN solution provides an important mechanism for convincing experts—and eventually the legal community—that it is possible to rigorously analyse and communicate the full impact of match evidence on a case, in the presence of possible error

    Ireland’s Rural Environment: Research Highlights from Johnstown Castle

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    ReportThis booklet gives a flavour of the current research in Teagasc Johnstown Castle Research Centre and introduces you to the staff involved. It covers the areas of Nutrient Efficiency, Gaseous emissions, Agricultural Ecology, Soils and Water quality

    Multiple mechanisms of spiral wave breakup in a model of cardiac electrical activity

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    It has become widely accepted that the most dangerous cardiac arrhythmias are due to re- entrant waves, i.e., electrical wave(s) that re-circulate repeatedly throughout the tissue at a higher frequency than the waves produced by the heart's natural pacemaker (sinoatrial node). However, the complicated structure of cardiac tissue, as well as the complex ionic currents in the cell, has made it extremely difficult to pinpoint the detailed mechanisms of these life-threatening reentrant arrhythmias. A simplified ionic model of the cardiac action potential (AP), which can be fitted to a wide variety of experimentally and numerically obtained mesoscopic characteristics of cardiac tissue such as AP shape and restitution of AP duration and conduction velocity, is used to explain many different mechanisms of spiral wave breakup which in principle can occur in cardiac tissue. Some, but not all, of these mechanisms have been observed before using other models; therefore, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate them using just one framework model and to explain the different parameter regimes or physiological properties necessary for each mechanism (such as high or low excitability, corresponding to normal or ischemic tissue, spiral tip trajectory types, and tissue structures such as rotational anisotropy and periodic boundary conditions). Each mechanism is compared with data from other ionic models or experiments to illustrate that they are not model-specific phenomena. The fact that many different breakup mechanisms exist has important implications for antiarrhythmic drug design and for comparisons of fibrillation experiments using different species, electromechanical uncoupling drugs, and initiation protocols.Comment: 128 pages, 42 figures (29 color, 13 b&w

    Evaluation of omniweave reinforcement for composite fabrication

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    Molded composites made from type-2 Morganite and/or boron are suitable for structural skins. Layered-in-depth omniweave construction yields higher in-plane strength characteristics than fiber-pitch angle construction, and strength and moduli data vary with fiber orientation

    Keynote Speaker: Taking Charge of Our Energy Future

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    Keynote Address: Taking Charge of Our Energy Future Introductions: George Tyson, General Chairman Speaker: Dr. James M. Fenton, Director Florida Solar Energy Cente

    Aid, Marginalization and Indigenous People in Guatemala

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    While there are all of these programs and organizations currently operating in Guatemala, it is clear that they are not functioning as they should for Guatemala’s indigenous population. This is clear from the lack of improvement in any of the economic markers noted above, such as poverty, health and education. Furthermore, these same programs are functioning for Guatemala’s ladino population, which has seen an improvement in their living conditions. The difference in the results between these two groups naturally raises the question of why this type of program is significantly less effective for Guatemala’s indigenous population than it is for its ladino population. Why are these programs not reaching this portion of Guatemala’s population? Additionally, there are some programs that are beginning to see some initial success on a local level, such as Qachuu Aloom, a garden project in Rabinal, Guatemala. Why might this project be succeeding, when other similar projects are not

    Operation Transition: Post-9/11 Combat Marines Transitioning to Civilian Life and the Role of Higher Education in their Identity Formation

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    Operation Transition is an excavation of the experiences of Post-9/11 combat Marines, who have been Honorably Discharged, as their transition to civilian and student life. The work of Operation Transition was conducted with a group of Marines, called The Unit, and presents the variety of stories that exist among Veterans, beyond the highly publicized and limiting narratives of Hero, Wounded Warrior, or Killer. The fictive piece represents the experiences of transition that illuminate a civilian privileged higher education system and society-at-large. Operation Transition exemplifies and acknowledges that value of stories for understanding and community building. As such, Operation Transition, which includes critical pedagogy and narrative inquiry, concludes that in order for improvements to be made in higher education, both those in the academy and Veterans need to listen to each other’s stories, with humility and respect, so they can understand each other, honor each other, and work together to make change
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