Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

ACVIM consensus statement on the treatment of immune-mediated hemolytic anemia in dogs

Immune‐mediated hemolytic anemia (IMHA) causes severe anemia in dogs and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Treatment with various immunosuppressive and antithrombotic drugs has been described anecdotally and in previous studies, but little consensus exists among veterinarians as to the optimal regimen to employ and maintain after diagnosis of the disease. To address this inconsistency and provide evidence‐based guidelines for treatment of IMHA in dogs, we identified and extracted data from studies published in the veterinary literature. We developed a novel tool for evaluation of evidence quality, using it to assess study design, diagnostic criteria, explanation of treatment regimens, and validity of statistical methods. In combination with our clinical experience and comparable guidelines for humans afflicted with autoimmune hemolytic anemia, we used the conclusions of this process to make a set of clinical recommendations regarding treatment of IMHA in dogs, which we refined subsequently by conducting several iterations of Delphi review. Additionally, we considered emerging treatments for IMHA in dogs and highlighted areas deserving of future research. Comments were solicited from several professional bodies to maximize clinical applicability before the recommendations were submitted for publication. The resulting document is intended to provide clinical guidelines for management of IMHA in dogs. These guidelines should be implemented pragmatically, with consideration of animal, owner, and veterinary factors that may vary among cases

Precipitation control over inorganic nitrogen import-export budgets across watersheds: a synthesis of long-term ecological research

ABSTRACT We investigated long-term and seasonal patterns of N imports and exports, as well as patterns following climate perturbations, across biomes using data from 15 watersheds from nine Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in North America. Mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) import-export budgets (N import via precipitation-N export via stream flow) for common years across all watersheds was highly variable, ranging from a net loss of 0Ð17 š 0Ð09 kg N ha 1 mo 1 to net retention of 0Ð68 š 0Ð08 kg N ha 1 mo 1 . The net retention of DIN decreased (smaller import-export budget) with increasing precipitation, as well as with increasing variation in precipitation during the winter, spring, and fall. Averaged across all seasons, net DIN retention decreased as the coefficient of variation (CV) in precipitation increased across all sites (r 2 D 0Ð48, p D 0Ð005). This trend was made stronger when the disturbed watersheds were withheld from the analysis (r 2 D 0Ð80, p < 0Ð001, n D 11). Thus, DIN exports were either similar to or exceeded imports in the tropical, boreal, and wet coniferous watersheds, whereas imports exceeded exports in temperate deciduous watersheds. In general, forest harvesting, hurricanes, or floods corresponded with periods of increased DIN exports relative to imports. Periods when water throughput within a watershed was likely to be lower (i.e. low snow pack or El Niño years) corresponded with decreased DIN exports relative to imports. These data provide a basis for ranking diverse sites in terms of their ability to retain DIN in the context of changing precipitation regimes likely to occur in the future

Accounting fraud, business failure and creative auditing: A microanalysis of the strange case of the Sunbeam Corporation

This article closely examines the Sunbeam Corporation’s path to failure and explores the reasons for its singularity. From the analysis of US fraud cases included in the UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database, this corporate case appears as an outlier. For Sunbeam, the time-lapse between fraud disclosure and its final bankruptcy is the longest of the entire sample; it is unique because of its length. This article uses a historical microanalysis to evaluate different hypotheses about the Sunbeam Corporation’s path to failure. The relationships between acquisitions and fraud, ‘scapegoat dynamics’ and ‘creative auditing’ are identified as the most relevant issues to be examined against a changing institutional context. The resulting reconstruction of the events provides unexpected insights and recommendations for future research on auditing and accounting fraud

Twinning across the Developing World

Contains fulltext : 95481.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)5 p

Monitoring biological wastewater treatment processes: Recent advances in spectroscopy applications

Biological processes based on aerobic and anaerobic technologies have been continuously developed to wastewater treatment and are currently routinely employed to reduce the contaminants discharge levels in the environment. However, most methodologies commonly applied for monitoring key parameters are labor intensive, time-consuming and just provide a snapshot of the process. Thus, spectroscopy applications in biological processes are, nowadays, considered a rapid and effective alternative technology for real-time monitoring though still lacking implementation in full-scale plants. In this review, the application of spectroscopic techniques to aerobic and anaerobic systems is addressed focusing on UV--Vis, infrared, and fluorescence spectroscopy. Furthermore, chemometric techniques, valuable tools to extract the relevant data, are also referred. To that effect, a detailed analysis is performed for aerobic and anaerobic systems to summarize the findings that have been obtained since 2000. Future prospects for the application of spectroscopic techniques in biological wastewater treatment processes are further discussed.The authors thank the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the scope of the strategic funding of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, COMPETE 2020 (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006684) and the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and BioTecNorte operation (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000004) funded by the European Regional Development Fund under the scope of Norte2020 - Programa Operacional Regional do Norte. The authors also acknowledge the financial support to Daniela P. Mesquita and Cristina Quintelas through the postdoctoral Grants (SFRH/BPD/82558/2011 and SFRH/BPD/101338/2014) provided by FCT - Portugal.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference