Retrievals of Arctic Sea-Ice Volume and Its Trend Significantly Affected by Interannual Snow Variability

We estimate the uncertainty of satellite-retrieved Arctic sea-ice thickness, sea-ice volume, and their trends stemming from the lack of reliable snow-thickness observations. To do so, we simulate a Cryosat2-type ice-thickness retrieval in an ocean-model simulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis, pretending that only freeboard is known as model output. We then convert freeboard to sea-ice thickness using different snow climatologies and compare the resulting sea-ice thickness retrievals to each other and to the real sea-ice thickness of the reanalysis-forced simulation. We find that different snow climatologies cause significant differences in the obtained ice thickness and ice volume. In addition, we show that Arctic ice-volume trends derived from ice-thickness retrievals using any snow-depth climatology are highly unreliable because the estimated trend in ice volume can strongly be influenced by the neglected interannual variability in snow volume. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

The effects of mixing on age of air

Mean age of air (AoA) measures the mean transit time of air parcels along the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) starting from their entry into the stratosphere. AoA is determined both by transport along the residual circulation and by two-way mass exchange (mixing). The relative roles of residual circulation transport and two-way mixing for AoA, and for projected AoA changes are not well understood. Here effects of mixing on AoA are quantified by contrasting AoA with the transit time of hypothetical transport solely by the residual circulation. Based on climate model simulations, we find additional aging by mixing throughout most of the lower stratosphere, except in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere where mixing reduces AoA. We use a simple Lagrangian model to reconstruct the distribution of AoA in the GCM and to illustrate the effects of mixing at different locations in the stratosphere. Predicted future reduction in AoA associated with an intensified BDC is equally due to faster transport along the residual circulation as well as reduced aging by mixing. A tropical leaky pipe model is used to derive a mixing efficiency, measured by the ratio of the two-way mixing mass flux and the net (residual) mass flux across the subtropical boundary. The mixing efficiency remains close to constant in a future climate, suggesting that the strength of two-way mixing is tightly coupled to the strength of the residual circulation in the lower stratosphere. This implies that mixing generally amplifies changes in AoA due to uniform changes in the residual circulation

The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the occurrence of extreme winter cold spells over northern Europe

Extreme cold spells over Northern Europe during winter are examined in order to address the question to what degree and in which ways stratospheric dynamics may influence the state of the troposphere. The study is based on 500 years of a pre-industrial control simulation with a comprehensive global climate model which well resolves the stratosphere, the MPI Earth System Model. Geopotential height anomalies leading to cold air outbreaks leave imprints throughout the atmosphere including the middle and lower stratosphere. A significant connection between tropospheric winter cold spells over Northern Europe and erosion of the stratospheric polar vortex is detected up to 30 hPa. In about 40 percent of the cases, the extreme cold spells are preceded by dynamical disturbances in the stratosphere. The strong warmings associated with the deceleration of the stratospheric jet cause the tropopause height to decrease over high latitudes. The compression of the tropospheric column below favors the development of high pressure anomalies and blocking signatures over polar regions. This in turn leads to the advection of cold air towards Northern Europe and the establishment of a negative annular mode pattern in the troposphere. Anomalies in the residual mean meridional circulation during the stratospheric weak vortex events contribute to the warming of the lower stratosphere, but are not key in the mechanism through which the stratosphere impacts the troposphere

Metabolism of Foodborne Heterocyclic Aromatic Amines by <i>Lactobacillus reuteri</i> DSM 20016

The heterocyclic aromatic amine (HAA) 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo­[4,5-<i>b</i>]­pyridine (PhIP) is converted into 7-hydroxy-5-methyl-3-phenyl-6,7,8,9-tetrahydropyrido­[3′,2′:4,5]­imidazo­[1,2-<i>a</i>]­pyrimidin-5-ium chloride (PhIP-M1) via a chemical reaction with 3-hydroxypropionaldehyde or acrolein derived from glycerol by reuterin producing gut bacteria. Because it is unknown whether this reaction also applies to other HAAs, seven foodborne HAAs (2-amino-9<i>H</i>-pyrido­[2,3-<i>b</i>]­indole (AαC), 3-amino-1,4-dimethyl-5<i>H</i>-pyrido­[4,3-<i>b</i>]­indole (Trp-P-1), 2-amino-3-methyl-3<i>H</i>-imidazo­[4,5-<i>f</i>]­quinoline (IQ), 2-amino-3,4-dimethyl-3<i>H</i>-imidazo­[4,5-<i>f</i>]­quinoline (MeIQ), 2-amino-3,8-dimethyl-3<i>H</i>-imidazo­[4,5-<i>f</i>]­quinoxaline (MeIQx), 9<i>H</i>-pyrido­[3,4-<i>b</i>]­indole (norharman), and 1-methyl-9<i>H</i>-pyrido­[3,4-<i>b</i>]­indole (harman)) were anaerobically incubated with <i>Lactobacillus reuteri</i> DSM 20016 in the presence of glycerol. The extent of conversion, as analyzed by HPLC-DAD/FLD, was dependent on both the studied HAAs and the glucose/glycerol ratio, indicating reuterin to be involved in HAA metabolism. Based on HRMS analyses, PhIP-M1-type metabolites were detected for AαC, Trp-P-1, IQ, MeIQ, MeIQx, harman, and norharman. In the case of AαC, this was confirmed by metabolite isolation (AαC-M8, 2,3,4,10-tetrahydro-1<i>H</i>-indolo­[2,3-<i>b</i>]­[1,8]­naphthyridin-2-ol) and one- (¹H) and two-dimensional (HSQC, HMBC, COSY, DOSY) NMR spectroscopy. In addition, based on HRMS and/or NMR spectroscopy, a new type of HAA metabolite, resulting from the reaction with two molecules of 3-hydroxypropionaldehyde or acrolein, is hypothesized for AαC, Trp-P-1, IQ, MeIQ, and MeIQx

Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter

Climate and weather variability in the North Atlantic region is determined largely by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The potential for skillful seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO using an ensemble‐based dynamical prediction system has only recently been demonstrated. Here we show that the winter predictability can be significantly improved by refining a dynamical ensemble through subsampling. We enhance prediction skill of surface temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure over essential parts of the Northern Hemisphere by retaining only the ensemble members whose NAO state is close to a “first guess” NAO prediction based on a statistical analysis of the initial autumn state of the ocean, sea ice, land, and stratosphere. The correlation coefficient between the reforecasted and observation‐based winter NAO is significantly increased from 0.49 to 0.83 over a reforecast period from 1982 to 2016, and from 0.42 to 0.86 for a forecast period from 2001 to 2017. Our novel approach represents a successful and robust alternative to further increasing the ensemble size, and potentially can be used in operational seasonal prediction systems. Plain Language Summary Predicting Northern Hemisphere winter conditions, which are controlled largely by fluctuations in the pressure filed over the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), for the next season is a major challenge. Most state‐of‐the‐art seasonal prediction systems show a correlation between observed and predicted NAOs of less than 0.30. Our novel approach uses dynamical links (teleconnections) between the autumn state of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, Arctic sea ice, snow in Eurasia, and stratosphere temperature over the Northern Hemisphere as predictors of the NAO in the subsequent winter to subsample a dynamical reforecast ensemble. We select only the ensemble members that consistently reproduce winter NAO states that evolve in accordance with the autumn state of these predictors. As a result the winter NAO prediction skill increases to a correlation value of 0.83. Considering these well established NAO teleconnections in our Earth system model leads to an improved prediction skill of European winter conditions, that is, surface temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure. Our results advance seasonal prediction of European weather to a level that is usually limited to tropical regions and are relevant for a variety of societal sectors, such as global and national economies and energy and water resources