Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?

Abstract. Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning. Practitioners traditionally coped with variabilities in the hydrological processes by assuming stationarity in the probability distributions and attempted to address non-stationarity by revising this probabilistic properties via continued hydro-climatological observations. Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative for water management plannig. This paper takes a brief assessment of the state of Global Circulation Models (GCM) and their applications by presenting case studies over Global, European and African domains accompanied by literature examples. Our paper demonstrates core deficiencies in GCM based water resources assessments and articulates the need for improved Earth system monitoring that is essential not only for water managers, but to aid the improvements of GCMs in the future

Scaling gridded river networks for macroscale hydrology: Development, analysis, and control of error

A simple and robust river network scaling algorithm (NSA) is presented to rescale fine‐resolution networks to any coarser resolution. The algorithm was tested over the Danube River basin and the European continent. Coarse‐resolution networks, at 2.5, 5, 10, and 30 min resolutions, were derived from higher‐resolution gridded networks using NSA and geomorphometric attributes, such as river order, shape index, and width function. These parameters were calculated and compared at each resolution. Simple scaling relationships were found to predict decreasing river lengths with coarser‐resolution data. This relationship can be used to correct river length as a function of grid resolution. The length‐corrected width functions of the major river basins in Europe were compared at different resolutions to assess river network performance. The discretization error in representing basin area and river lengths at coarser resolutions were analyzed, and simple relationships were found to calculate the minimum number of grid cells needed to maintain the catchment area and length within a desired level of accuracy. This relationship among geomorphological characteristics, such as shape index and width function (derived from gridded networks at different resolutions), suggests that a minimum of 200–300 grid cells is necessary to maintain the geomorphological characteristics of the river networks with sufficient accuracy

Global system of rivers: Its role in organizing continental land mass and defining land‐to‐ocean linkages

The spatial organization of the Earth\u27s land mass is analyzed using a simulated topological network (STN‐30p) representing potential flow pathways across the entire nonglacierized surface of the globe at 30‐min (longitude × latitude) spatial resolution. We discuss a semiautomated procedure to develop this topology combining digital elevation models and manual network editing. STN‐30p was verified against several independent sources including map products and drainage basin statistics, although we found substantial inconsistency within the extant literature itself. A broad suite of diagnostics is offered that quantitatively describes individual grid cells, river segments, and complete drainage systems spanning orders 1 through 6 based on the Strahler classification scheme. Continental and global‐scale summaries of key STN‐30p attributes are given. Summaries are also presented which distinguish basins that potentially deliver discharge to an ocean (exorheic) from those that potentially empty into an internal receiving body (endorheic). A total of 59,122 individual grid cells constitutes the global nonglacierized land mass. At 30‐min spatial resolution, the cells are organized into 33,251 distinct river segments which define 6152 drainage basins. A global total of 133.1 × 106 km2 bear STN‐SOp flow paths with a total length of 3.24 × 106 km. The organization of river networks has an important role in linking land mass to ocean. From a continental perspective, low‐order river segments (orders 1‐3) drain the largest fraction of land (90%) and thus constitute a primary source area for runoff and constituents. From an oceanic perspective, however, the small number (n=101) of large drainage systems (orders 4‐6) predominates; draining 65% of global land area and subsuming a large fraction of the otherwise spatially remote low‐order rivers. Along river corridors, only 10% of land mass is within 100 km of a coastline, 25% is within 250 km, and 50% is within 750 km. The global mean distance to river mouth is 1050 km with individual continental values from 460 to 1340 km. The Mediterranean/Black Sea and Arctic Ocean are the most land‐dominated of all oceans with land:ocean area ratios of 4.4 and 1.2, respectively; remaining oceans show ratios from 0.55 to 0.13. We discuss limitations of the STN‐30p together with its potential role in future global change studies. STN‐30p is geographically linked to several hundred river discharge and chemistry monitoring stations to provide a framework for calibrating and validating macroscale hydrology and biogeochemical flux models

An Algorithmic Study of Manufacturing Paperclips and Other Folded Structures

We study algorithmic aspects of bending wires and sheet metal into a specified structure. Problems of this type are closely related to the question of deciding whether a simple non-self-intersecting wire structure (a carpenter's ruler) can be straightened, a problem that was open for several years and has only recently been solved in the affirmative. If we impose some of the constraints that are imposed by the manufacturing process, we obtain quite different results. In particular, we study the variant of the carpenter's ruler problem in which there is a restriction that only one joint can be modified at a time. For a linkage that does not self-intersect or self-touch, the recent results of Connelly et al. and Streinu imply that it can always be straightened, modifying one joint at a time. However, we show that for a linkage with even a single vertex degeneracy, it becomes NP-hard to decide if it can be straightened while altering only one joint at a time. If we add the restriction that each joint can be altered at most once, we show that the problem is NP-complete even without vertex degeneracies. In the special case, arising in wire forming manufacturing, that each joint can be altered at most once, and must be done sequentially from one or both ends of the linkage, we give an efficient algorithm to determine if a linkage can be straightened.Comment: 28 pages, 14 figures, Latex, to appear in Computational Geometry - Theory and Application

River Discharge, in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

U.S. River Discharge for 2008 in State of the Climate in 2008

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland

Algorithms for Rapidly Dispersing Robot Swarms in Unknown Environments

We develop and analyze algorithms for dispersing a swarm of primitive robots in an unknown environment, R. The primary objective is to minimize the makespan, that is, the time to fill the entire region. An environment is composed of pixels that form a connected subset of the integer grid. There is at most one robot per pixel and robots move horizontally or vertically at unit speed. Robots enter R by means of k>=1 door pixels Robots are primitive finite automata, only having local communication, local sensors, and a constant-sized memory. We first give algorithms for the single-door case (i.e., k=1), analyzing the algorithms both theoretically and experimentally. We prove that our algorithms have optimal makespan 2A-1, where A is the area of R. We next give an algorithm for the multi-door case (k>1), based on a wall-following version of the leader-follower strategy. We prove that our strategy is O(log(k+1))-competitive, and that this bound is tight for our strategy and other related strategies.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, Latex, to appear in Workshop on Algorithmic Foundations of Robotics, 200

Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records

We describe the contemporary hydrography of the pan‐Arctic land area draining into the Arctic Ocean, northern Bering Sea, and Hudson Bay on the basis of observational records of river discharge and computed runoff. The Regional Arctic Hydrographic Network data set, R‐ArcticNET, is presented, which is based on 3754 recording stations drawn from Russian, Canadian, European, and U.S. archives. R‐ArcticNET represents the single largest data compendium of observed discharge in the Arctic. Approximately 73% of the nonglaciated area of the pan‐Arctic is monitored by at least one river discharge gage giving a mean gage density of 168 gages per 106 km2. Average annual runoff is 212 mm yr−1 with approximately 60% of the river discharge occurring from April to July. Gridded runoff surfaces are generated for the gaged portion of the pan‐Arctic region to investigate global change signals. Siberia and Alaska showed increases in winter runoff during the 1980s relative to the 1960s and 1970s during annual and seasonal periods. These changes are consistent with observations of change in the climatology of the region. Western Canada experienced decreased spring and summer runoff

Horizontal cooling towers: riverine ecosystem services and the fate of thermoelectric heat in the contemporary Northeast US

The electricity sector is dependent on rivers to provide ecosystem services that help regulate excess heat, either through provision of water for evaporative cooling or by conveying, diluting and attenuating waste heat inputs. Reliance on these ecosystem services alters flow and temperature regimes, which impact fish habitat and other aquatic ecosystem services. We demonstrate the contemporary (2000–2010) dependence of the electricity sector on riverine ecosystem services and associated aquatic impacts in the Northeast US, a region with a high density of thermoelectric power plants. We quantify these dynamics using a spatially distributed hydrology and water temperature model (the framework for aquatic modeling in the Earth system), coupled with the thermoelectric power and thermal pollution model. We find that 28.4% of thermoelectric heat production is transferred to rivers, whereas 25.9% is directed to vertical cooling towers. Regionally, only 11.3% of heat transferred to rivers is dissipated to the atmosphere and the rest is delivered to coasts, in part due to the distribution of power plants within the river system. Impacts to the flow regime are minimal, while impacts to the thermal regime include increased river lengths of unsuitable habitats for fish with maximum thermal tolerances of 24.0, 29.0, and 34.0 ° C in segments downstream of plants by 0.6%, 9.8%, and 53.9%, respectively. Our analysis highlights the interactions among electricity production, cooling technologies, aquatic impacts, and ecosystem services, and can be used to assess the full costs and tradeoffs of electricity production at regional scales