A time-delay determination from VLA light curves of the CLASS gravitational lens B1600+434

We present Very Large Array (VLA) 8.5-GHz light curves of the two lens images of the Cosmic Lens All Sky Survey (CLASS) gravitational lens B1600+434. We find a nearly linear decrease of 18-19% in the flux densities of both lens images over a period of eight months (February-October) in 1998. Additionally, the brightest image A shows modulations up to 11% peak-to-peak on scales of days to weeks over a large part of the observing period. Image B varies significantly less on this time scale. We conclude that most of the short-term variability in image A is not intrinsic source variability, but is most likely caused by microlensing in the lens galaxy. The alternative, scintillation by the ionized Galactic ISM, is shown to be implausible based on its strong opposite frequency dependent behavior compared with results from multi-frequency WSRT monitoring observations (Koopmans & de Bruyn 1999). From these VLA light curves we determine a median time delay between the lens images of 47^{+5}_{-6} d (68%) or 47^{+12}_{-9} d (95%). We use two different methods to derive the time delay; both give the same result within the errors. We estimate an additional systematic error between -8 and +7 d. If the mass distribution of lens galaxy can be described by an isothermal model (Koopmans, de Bruyn & Jackson 1998), this time delay would give a value for the Hubble parameter, H_0=57^{+14}_{-11} (95% statistical) ^{+26}_{-15} (systematic) km/s/Mpc (Omega_m=1 and Omega_Lambda=0). Similarly, the Modified-Hubble-Profile mass model would give H_0=74^{+18}_{-15} (95% statistical) ^{+22}_{-22} (systematic) km/s/Mpc. For Omega_m=0.3 and Omega_Lambda=0.7, these values increase by 5.4%. ... (ABRIDGED)Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics (Figs 1 and 3 with degraded resolution

What drives basin scale spatial variability of snowpack properties in northern Colorado?

This study uses a combination of field measurements and Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) operational snow data to understand the drivers of snow density and snow water equivalent (SWE) variability at the basin scale (100s to 1000s km²). Historic snow course snowpack density observations were analyzed within a multiple linear regression snow density model to estimate SWE directly from snow depth measurements. Snow surveys were completed on or about 1 April 2011 and 2012 and combined with NRCS operational measurements to investigate the spatial variability of SWE near peak snow accumulation. Bivariate relations and multiple linear regression models were developed to understand the relation of snow density and SWE with terrain variables (derived using a geographic information system (GIS)). Snow density variability was best explained by day of year, snow depth, UTM Easting, and elevation. Calculation of SWE directly from snow depth measurement using the snow density model has strong statistical performance, and model validation suggests the model is transferable to independent data within the bounds of the original data set. This pathway of estimating SWE directly from snow depth measurement is useful when evaluating snowpack properties at the basin scale, where many time-consuming measurements of SWE are often not feasible. A comparison with a previously developed snow density model shows that calibrating a snow density model to a specific basin can provide improvement of SWE estimation at this scale, and should be considered for future basin scale analyses. During both water year (WY) 2011 and 2012, elevation and location (UTM Easting and/or UTM Northing) were the most important SWE model variables, suggesting that orographic precipitation and storm track patterns are likely driving basin scale SWE variability. Terrain curvature was also shown to be an important variable, but to a lesser extent at the scale of interest

Measuring gravitational lens time delays using low-resolution radio monitoring observations

Obtaining lensing time delay measurements requires long-term monitoring campaigns with a high enough resolution (< 1 arcsec) to separate the multiple images. In the radio, a limited number of high-resolution interferometer arrays make these observations difficult to schedule. To overcome this problem, we propose a technique for measuring gravitational time delays which relies on monitoring the total flux density with low-resolution but high-sensitivity radio telescopes to follow the variation of the brighter image. This is then used to trigger high-resolution observations in optimal numbers which then reveal the variation in the fainter image. We present simulations to assess the efficiency of this method together with a pilot project observing radio lens systems with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) to trigger Very Large Array (VLA) observations. This new method is promising for measuring time delays because it uses relatively small amounts of time on high-resolution telescopes. This will be important because instruments that have high sensitivity but limited resolution, together with an optimum usage of followup high-resolution observations from appropriate radio telescopes may in the future be useful for gravitational lensing time delay measurements by means of this new method.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted by MNRA

A shrinking Compact Symmetric Object: J11584+2450?

We present multi-frequency multi-epoch Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) observations of J11584+2450. These observations clearly show this source, previously classified as a core-jet, to be a compact symmetric object (CSO). Comparisons between these new data and data taken over the last 9 years shows the edge brightened hot spots retreating towards the core (and slightly to the west) at approximately 0.3c. Whether this motion is strictly apparent or actually physical in nature is discussed, as well as possible explanations, and what implications a physical contraction of J11584+2450 would have for current CSO models.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

The Effect of Environment on Shear in Strong Gravitational Lenses

Using new photometric and spectroscopic data in the fields of nine strong gravitational lenses that lie in galaxy groups, we analyze the effects of both the local group environment and line-of-sight galaxies on the lens potential. We use Monte Carlo simulations to derive the shear directly from measurements of the complex lens environment, providing the first detailed independent check of the shear obtained from lens modeling. We account for possible tidal stripping of the group galaxies by varying the fraction of total mass apportioned between the group dark matter halo and individual group galaxies. The environment produces an average shear of gamma = 0.08 (ranging from 0.02 to 0.17), significant enough to affect quantities derived from lens observables. However, the direction and magnitude of the shears do not match those obtained from lens modeling in three of the six 4-image systems in our sample (B1422, RXJ1131, and WFI2033). The source of this disagreement is not clear, implying that the assumptions inherent in both the environment and lens model approaches must be reconsidered. If only the local group environment of the lens is included, the average shear is gamma = 0.05 (ranging from 0.01 to 0.14), indicating that line-of-sight contributions to the lens potential are not negligible. We isolate the effects of various theoretical and observational uncertainties on our results. Of those uncertainties, the scatter in the Faber-Jackson relation and error in the group centroid position dominate. Future surveys of lens environments should prioritize spectroscopic sampling of both the local lens environment and objects along the line of sight, particularly those bright (I < 21.5) galaxies projected within 5' of the lens.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; 28 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

The Hubble Constant from the Gravitational Lens B1608+656

We present a refined gravitational lens model of the four-image lens system B1608+656 based on new and improved observational constraints: (i) the three independent time-delays and flux-ratios from VLA observations, (ii) the radio-image positions from VLBA observations, (iii) the shape of the deconvolved Einstein Ring from optical and infrared HST images, (iv) the extinction-corrected lens-galaxy centroids and structural parameters, and (v) a stellar velocity dispersion, sigma_ap=247+-35 km/s, of the primary lens galaxy (G1), obtained from an echelle spectrum taken with the Keck--II telescope. The lens mass model consists of two elliptical mass distributions with power-law density profiles and an external shear, totaling 22 free parameters, including the density slopes which are the key parameters to determine the value of H_0 from lens time delays. This has required the development of a new lens code that is highly optimized for speed. The minimum-chi^2 model reproduces all observations very well, including the stellar velocity dispersion and the shape of the Einstein Ring. A combined gravitational-lens and stellar dynamical analysis leads to a value of the Hubble Constant of H_0=75(+7/-6) km/s/Mpc (68 percent CL; Omega_m=0.3, Omega_Lambda=0.7. The non-linear error analysis includes correlations between all free parameters, in particular the density slopes of G1 and G2, yielding an accurate determination of the random error on H_0. The lens galaxy G1 is ~5 times more massive than the secondary lens galaxy (G2), and has a mass density slope of gamma_G1=2.03(+0.14/-0.14) +- 0.03 (68 percent CL) for rho~r^-gamma', very close to isothermal (gamma'=2). (Abridged)Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 5 tables; revised version with correct fig.6 and clarified text based on referee report; conclusions unchange

Probing dark matter substructure in the gravitational lens HE0435-1223 with the WFC3 grism

Strong gravitational lensing provides a powerful test of Cold Dark Matter (CDM) as it enables the detection and mass measurement of low mass haloes even if they do not contain baryons. Compact lensed sources such as Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are particularly sensitive to perturbing subhalos, but their use as a test of CDM has been limited by the small number of systems which have significant radio emission which is extended enough avoid significant lensing by stars in the plane of the lens galaxy, and red enough to be minimally affected by differential dust extinction. Narrow-line emission is a promising alternative as it is also extended and, unlike radio, detectable in virtually all optically selected AGN lenses. We present first results from a WFC3 grism narrow-line survey of lensed quasars, for the quadruply lensed AGN HE0435-1223. Using a forward modelling pipeline which enables us to robustly account for spatial blending, we measure the [OIII] 5007 \AA~ flux ratios of the four images. We find that the [OIII] fluxes and positions are well fit by a simple smooth mass model for the main lens. Our data rule out a $M_{600}>10^{8} (10^{7.2}) M_\odot$ NFW perturber projected within $\sim$1\farcs0 (0\farcs1) arcseconds of each of the lensed images, where $M_{600}$ is the perturber mass within its central 600 pc. The non-detection is broadly consistent with the expectations of $\Lambda$CDM for a single system. The sensitivity achieved demonstrates that powerful limits on the nature of dark matter can be obtained with the analysis of $\sim20$ narrow-line lenses.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS, 15 pages, 8 figure

adjuvant mitotane for adrenocortical cancer working through uncertainty

The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism recently published a commentary by Huang and Fojo (1) offering a skeptical view on the efficacy of mitotane as an adjunctive postsurgical measure in patients with adrenocortical cancer (ACC). Their commentary focused on outlining the limitations of our recent study which indicated that adjuvant mitotane may prolong recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with radically resected ACC (2). However, we do not agree with several of their conclusions and believe that it is of interest to present our view for a balanced and comprehensive coverage of this important matter. Inprinciple,weagreewithHuangandFojothatourstudysuffers from the important limitation of a retrospective analysis; thus our investigation should be considered as hypothesis generating and certainly does not provide conclusive evidence. This problem has been clearly acknowledged in the paper, and we cautiously concluded that our study should renew interest in adjuvant therapy, whereas prospective, randomized trials will be needed to confirm the efficacyof adjuvantmitotane treatment (2).However, the rarity of ACC precluded organization of a randomized trial either in an adjuvantsettingor inpatientswithadvancedACC(3).Nonetheless, mitotane has been used for treating patients with ACC since the 1960s and is the only drug approved for ACC by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Evaluation Agency (4). In this scenario, a study including all consecutive patients treated postoperatively with mitotane in some centers and all consecutive patients left untreated after operation in other centers is thebestway toobtainexplorativedataon theefficacyofadjuvant mitotane, provided that the two groups are comparable. In our study, in fact, mitotane was recommended on the basis of the treatmentpolicyof thecenter, independentof thecharacteristicsofeither the tumorsor thepatients, and this is amajoradvantageminimizing selection bias as compared with other studies that had less clear treatment assignments (5). The major criticism of Huang and Fojo (1) is that we did not demonstrate any benefit on overall survival (OS) for patients treated adjuvantly. However, this is not correct because the hazard ratio of death of the German cohort of nontreated patients was nonsignificantly higher than mitotane-treated patients in univariate analysis, but the difference became significant in multivariate analysis after adjusting for imbalances in prognostic factors (the German cohort included more patients with stage I and II ACC than the Italian cohort of mitotane-treated patients). Even when we accept that the effect of adjuvant mitotane on OS was less impressive than on RFS, we disagree that prolonging a disease-free status is not a clinically meaningful objective even without extending significantly duration of life. In addition, there is a long-standing debate on the most appropriate endpoint for adjuvant trials, and both OS and RFS have been suggested. Analysis of RFS has the advantage of needing a shorter follow-up and being directly related to the treatment tested. The most important disadvantage of RFS is its close relationship to the frequency and quality of evaluation. Bias in follow-up or ascertainment of outcome in observational retrospective series is well recognized, and we have acknowledged this potential limit of our study. However, the follow-up procedures were highly comparable among the different centers and included imaging evaluation of the chest and abdomen every 6 months until disease progression or the end of the study period (2). Even if survival has to be considered as the reference end-point, it may not be a direct result of the study drug because it may be strongly influenced by subsequent treatments and oncologists are increasingly considering RFS as a valid surrogate for OS (6). However, this relationship has never been demonstrated specifically in ACC patients. Another criticism is derived from an ill-conceived reanalysis of our data. Huang and Fojo (1) aimed at demonstrating that the time interval between ACC recurrence and death is higher in patients treated adjuvantly than patients left untreated after surgery. Thus, they assumed important differences in tumor biology of the different cohorts. This conclusion comes from subtracting median time to recurrence from median survival observed in th