Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from a number of different failures in similar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a rather indirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations. An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failure times

Magnetic Properties of Epitaxial and Polycrystalline Fe/Si Multilayers

Fe/Si multilayers with antiferromagnetic interlayer coupling have been grown via ion-beam sputtering on both glass and single-crystal substrates. High-angle x-ray diffraction measurements show that both sets of films have narrow Fe peaks, implying a large crystallite size and crystalline iron silicide spacer layers. Low-angle x-ray diffraction measurements show that films grown on glass have rougher interfaces than those grown on single-crystal substrates. The multilayers grown on glass have a larger remanent magnetization than the multilayers grown on single-crystal substrates. The observation of magnetocrystalline anisotropy in hysteresis loops and $(hkl)$ peaks in x-ray diffraction demonstrates that the films grown on MgO and Ge are epitaxial. The smaller remanent magnetization in Fe/Si multilayers with better layering suggests that the remanence is not an intrinsic property.Comment: 9 pages, RevTex, 4 figures available by fax. Send email to [email protected] for more info. Submitted to '95 MMM proceeding

Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

Reducing MCPA herbicide pollution at catchment scale using an agri-environmental scheme

Publication history: Accepted - 16 May 2022; Published online - 20 May 2022.In river catchments used as drinking water sources, high pesticide concentrations in abstracted waters require an expensive treatment step prior to supply. The acid herbicide 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA) is particularly problematic as it is highly mobile in the soil-water environment following application. Here, an agri-environmental scheme (AES) was introduced to a large-scale catchment (384 km2) to potentially reduce the burden of pesticides in the water treatment process. The main measure offered was contractor application of glyphosate by weed wiping as a substitute for boom spraying of MCPA, supported by educational and advisory activities. A combined innovation applied in the assessment was, i) a full before-after-control-impact (BACI) framework over four peak application seasons (April to October 2018 to 2021) where a neighbouring catchment (386 km2) did not have an AES and, ii) an enhanced monitoring approach where river discharge and MCPA concentrations were measured synchronously in each catchment. During peak application periods the sample resolution was every 7 h, and daily during quiescent winter periods. This sampling approach enabled flow- and time-weighted concentrations to be established, and a detailed record of export loads. These loads were up to 0.242 kg km−2 yr−1, and over an order of magnitude higher than previously reported in the literature. Despite this, and accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variations in river discharges, the AES catchment indicated a reduction in both flow- and time-weighted MCPA concentration of up to 21% and 24%, respectively, compared to the control catchment. No pollution swapping was detected. Nevertheless, the percentage of MCPA occurrences above a 0.1 μg L−1 threshold did not reduce and so the need for treatment was not fully resolved. Although the work highlights the advantages of catchment management approaches for pollution reduction in source water catchments, it also indicates that maximising participation will be essential for future AES.This work was carried out as part of Source to Tap (IVA5018), a project supported by the European Union's INTERREG VA Programme, managed by the Special EU Programmes Body (SEUPB)

The impact of COVID-19 on opioid use in those awaiting hip and knee arthroplasty : A retrospective cohort study

Peer reviewedPostprin

Spectral line shape of resonant four-wave mixing induced by broad-bandwidth lasers

We present a theoretical and experimental study of the line shape of resonant four-wave mixing induced by broad-bandwidth laser radiation that revises the theory of Meacher, Smith, Ewart, and Cooper (MSEC) [Phys. Rev. A 46, 2718 (1992)]. We adopt the same method as MSEC but correct for an invalid integral used to average over the distribution of atomic velocities. The revised theory predicts a Voigt line shape composed of a homogeneous, Lorentzian component, defined by the collisional rate Γ, and an inhomogeneous, Doppler component, which is a squared Gaussian. The width of the inhomogeneous component is reduced by a factor of √2 compared to the simple Doppler width predicted by MSEC. In the limit of dominant Doppler broadening, the width of the homogeneous component is predicted to be 4Γ, whereas in the limit of dominant homogeneous broadening, the predicted width is 2Γ. An experimental measurement is reported of the line shape of the four-wave-mixing signal using a broad-bandwidth, "modeless", laser resonant with the Q1 (6) line of the A2 Σ - X2 Π(0,0) system of the hydroxyl radical. The measured widths of the Voigt components were found to be consistent with the predictions of the revised theory

Secondary and tertiary budbreak release is enhanced by extended dormancy chilling in 'Shiraz' grapevines

Limited information exists regarding the dormancy of secondary and tertiary buds within the compound bud of grapevines. We were interested to evaluate how extended chilling duration would affect the budbreak percentage of all three bud orders within the compound bud. Dormant potted 'Shiraz' grapevines, with thirty retained buds per vine, were placed in a cool room at 4 °C over a 20-month period to extend dormancy. Vines were then systematically removed over five dates and placed in a controlled growth environment to assess budbreak percentages and cane tissue concentrations of abscisic acid and cytokinins. Budbreak was hastened by at least 13 d with vines receiving any extra chilling compared to no initial chilling. Furthermore, the firstly observed correlative inhibition of basal buds was apparently removed with chilling. Removal of correlative inhibition within the compound bud with increased chilling duration was also observed with the increases of secondary (doubles) and tertiary (triples) buds breaking simultaneously with the primary bud at each node. This resulted in 91 % of the nodes having two developing shoots and 56 % of the nodes presenting three developing shoots by the end of the experiment. Furthermore, a sigmoidal relationship between percent secondary buds and chilling duration was observed. Possible phytohormone connections were observed with the decline of ABA as secondary and tertiary buds broke at 414 d of chilling and depletion of the CKs, which coincided with the greatest rate of primary bud break after 242 d of chilling. Other possible involvement of ABA and Cis-type cytokinin interactions with secondary and tertiary bud dormancy is discussed. The results suggest future investigations into secondary and tertiary bud release within the grapevine using similar techniques may help to better understand the biochemical mechanisms associated with dormancy

The neural correlates of emotion regulation by implementation intentions

Several studies have investigated the neural basis of effortful emotion regulation (ER) but the neural basis of automatic ER has been less comprehensively explored. The present study investigated the neural basis of automatic ER supported by ‘implementation intentions’. 40 healthy participants underwent fMRI while viewing emotion-eliciting images and used either a previously-taught effortful ER strategy, in the form of a goal intention (e.g., try to take a detached perspective), or a more automatic ER strategy, in the form of an implementation intention (e.g., “If I see something disgusting, then I will think these are just pixels on the screen!”), to regulate their emotional response. Whereas goal intention ER strategies were associated with activation of brain areas previously reported to be involved in effortful ER (including dorsolateral prefrontal cortex), ER strategies based on an implementation intention strategy were associated with activation of right inferior frontal gyrus and ventro-parietal cortex, which may reflect the attentional control processes automatically captured by the cue for action contained within the implementation intention. Goal intentions were also associated with less effective modulation of left amygdala, supporting the increased efficacy of ER under implementation intention instructions, which showed coupling of orbitofrontal cortex and amygdala. The findings support previous behavioural studies in suggesting that forming an implementation intention enables people to enact goal-directed responses with less effort and more efficiency

Adsorption of formate species on Cu(h,k,l) low index surfaces

We report a density functional theory study on the relative stability of formate species on Cu(h,k,l) low index surfaces using a range of exchange-correlation functionals. We find that these functionals predict similar geometries for the formate molecule adsorbed on the Cu surface. A comparison of the calculated vibrational transition energies of a perpendicular configuration of formate on Cu surface shows an excellent agreement with the experimental spectrum obtained from inelastic neutron spectroscopy. From the calculations on adsorption energy we find that formate is most stable on the Cu(110) surface as compared to Cu(111) and Cu(100) surfaces. Bader analysis shows that this feature could be related to the higher charge transfer from the Cu(110) surface and optimum charge density at the interfacial region due to bidirectional electron transfer between the formate and the Cu surface. Analysis of the partial density of states finds that in the –5.5 eV to –4.0 eV region, hybridization between O p and the non-axial Cu dyz and dxz orbitals takes place on the Cu(110) surface, which is energetically more favourable than on the other surfaces

An Experimental and Theoretical Study of the Variation of 4f Hybridization Across the La1-xCexIn3 Series

Crystal structures of a series of La1-xCexIn3 (x = 0.02, 0.2, 0.5, or 0.8) intermetallic compounds have been investigated by both neutron and X-ray diffraction, and their physical properties have been characterized by magnetic susceptibility and specific heat measurements. Our results emphasize atypical atomic displacement parameters (ADP) for the In and the rare-earth sites. Depending on the x value, the In ADP presents either an "ellipsoidal" elongation (La-rich compounds) or a "butterfly-like" distortion (Ce-rich compounds). These deformations have been understood by theoretical techniques based on the band theory and are the result of hybridization between conduction electrons and 4f-electrons.Comment: 7 pages, 8 figure