Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

"Case files from the University of Florida: When an Earache is more than an Earache": A case report

Brain abscess is not a common diagnosis as there are only approximately 2000 cases reported each year in the United States. There are three main routes of access to the brain including contiguous infection from the oropharynx, direct implantation and hematogenously. We present a case of brain abscess in a child who had multiple visits for ear pain to various physicians including pediatricians and to emergency departments. Additionally, the microbiology of brain abscesses is briefly discussed, as is treatment

The Curious Adventure of the Ultrahigh Energy Cosmic Rays

These lectures discuss the mysteries involving the production and extragalactic propagation of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and suggested possible solutions.Comment: Lectures given at the D. Chalonge Euroschool, Erice, Italy, November 2000, 25 pages, 7 ps figs., expanded revision with color fig.

Improving corporate governance in state-owned corporations in China: which way forward?

This article discusses corporate governance in China. It outlines the basic agency problem in Chinese listed companies and questions the effectiveness of the current mechanisms employed to improve their standards of governance. Importantly, it considers alternative means through which corporate practice in China can be brought into line with international expectations and stresses the urgency with which this task must be tackled. It concludes that regulators in China must construct a corporate governance model which is compatible with its domestic setting and not rush to adopt governance initiatives modelled on those in cultures which are fundamentally different in the hope of also reproducing their success

Decision Tree Algorithms Predict the Diagnosis and Outcome of Dengue Fever in the Early Phase of Illness

Dengue illness appears similar to other febrile illness, particularly in the early stages of disease. Consequently, diagnosis is often delayed or confused with other illnesses, reducing the effectiveness of using clinical diagnosis for patient care and disease surveillance. To address this shortcoming, we have studied 1,200 patients who presented within 72 hours from onset of fever; 30.3% of these had dengue infection, while the remaining 69.7% had other causes of fever. Using body temperature and the results of simple laboratory tests on blood samples of these patients, we have constructed a decision algorithm that is able to distinguish patients with dengue illness from those with other causes of fever with an accuracy of 84.7%. Another decision algorithm is able to predict which of the dengue patients would go on to develop severe disease, as indicated by an eventual drop in the platelet count to 50,000/mm3 blood or below. Our study shows a proof-of-concept that simple decision algorithms can predict dengue diagnosis and the likelihood of developing severe disease, a finding that could prove useful in the management of dengue patients and to public health efforts in preventing virus transmission

Phylogeography of Recently Emerged DENV-2 in Southern Viet Nam

Revealing the dispersal of dengue viruses (DENV) in time and space is central to understanding their epidemiology. However, the processes that shape DENV transmission patterns at the scale of local populations are not well understood, particularly the impact of such factors as human population movement and urbanization. Herein, we investigated trends in the spatial dynamics of DENV-2 transmission in the highly endemic setting of southern Viet Nam. Through a phylogeographic analysis of 168 full-length DENV-2 genome sequences obtained from hospitalized dengue cases from 10 provinces in southern Viet Nam, we reveal substantial genetic diversity in both urban and rural areas, with multiple lineages identified in individual provinces within a single season, and indicative of frequent viral migration among communities. Focusing on the recently introduced Asian I genotype, we observed particularly high rates of viral exchange between adjacent geographic areas, and between Ho Chi Minh City, the primary urban center of this region, and populations across southern Viet Nam. Within Ho Chi Minh City, patterns of DENV movement appear consistent with a gravity model of virus dispersal, with viruses traveling across a gradient of population density. Overall, our analysis suggests that Ho Chi Minh City may act as a source population for the dispersal of DENV across southern Viet Nam, and provides further evidence that urban areas of Southeast Asia play a primary role in DENV transmission. However, these data also indicate that more rural areas are also capable of maintaining virus populations and hence fueling DENV evolution over multiple seasons

Emergence of the Asian 1 Genotype of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 in Viet Nam: In Vivo Fitness Advantage and Lineage Replacement in South-East Asia

A better description of the extent and structure of genetic diversity in dengue virus (DENV) in endemic settings is central to its eventual control. To this end we determined the complete coding region sequence of 187 DENV-2 genomes and 68 E genes from viruses sampled from Vietnamese patients between 1995 and 2009. Strikingly, an episode of genotype replacement was observed, with Asian 1 lineage viruses entirely displacing the previously dominant Asian/American lineage viruses. This genotype replacement event also seems to have occurred within DENV-2 in Thailand and Cambodia, suggestive of a major difference in viral fitness. To determine the cause of this major evolutionary event we compared both the infectivity of the Asian 1 and Asian/American genotypes in mosquitoes and their viraemia levels in humans. Although there was little difference in infectivity in mosquitoes, we observed significantly higher plasma viraemia levels in paediatric patients infected with Asian 1 lineage viruses relative to Asian/American viruses, a phenotype that is predicted to result in a higher probability of human-to-mosquito transmission. These results provide a mechanistic basis to a marked change in the genetic structure of DENV-2 and more broadly underscore that an understanding of DENV evolutionary dynamics can inform the development of vaccines and anti-viral drugs

A primary care, multi-disciplinary disease management program for opioid-treated patients with chronic non-cancer pain and a high burden of psychiatric comorbidity

BACKGROUND: Chronic non-cancer pain is a common problem that is often accompanied by psychiatric comorbidity and disability. The effectiveness of a multi-disciplinary pain management program was tested in a 3 month before and after trial. METHODS: Providers in an academic general medicine clinic referred patients with chronic non-cancer pain for participation in a program that combined the skills of internists, clinical pharmacists, and a psychiatrist. Patients were either receiving opioids or being considered for opioid therapy. The intervention consisted of structured clinical assessments, monthly follow-up, pain contracts, medication titration, and psychiatric consultation. Pain, mood, and function were assessed at baseline and 3 months using the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI), the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale scale (CESD) and the Pain Disability Index (PDI). Patients were monitored for substance misuse. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients were enrolled. Mean age was 51 years, 60% were male, 78% were Caucasian, and 93% were receiving opioids. Baseline average pain was 6.5 on an 11 point scale. The average CESD score was 24.0, and the mean PDI score was 47.0. Sixty-three patients (73%) completed 3 month follow-up. Fifteen withdrew from the program after identification of substance misuse. Among those completing 3 month follow-up, the average pain score improved to 5.5 (p = 0.003). The mean PDI score improved to 39.3 (p < 0.001). Mean CESD score was reduced to 18.0 (p < 0.001), and the proportion of depressed patients fell from 79% to 54% (p = 0.003). Substance misuse was identified in 27 patients (32%). CONCLUSIONS: A primary care disease management program improved pain, depression, and disability scores over three months in a cohort of opioid-treated patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Substance misuse and depression were common, and many patients who had substance misuse identified left the program when they were no longer prescribed opioids. Effective care of patients with chronic pain should include rigorous assessment and treatment of these comorbid disorders and intensive efforts to insure follow up