Frontiers of finance: Evolution and efficient markets

In this review article we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions of research, some focusing on more elaborate mathematical models that are captable of rationalizing the empirical facrts, others taking a completely different different tack in rejecting rationality altogether. One of the most promising directions is to view financial markets from a biological perspective and, specifically, with an evolutionary framework in which markets, instruments, institutions, and investors interact and evolve dynamically according to the "law" of economic selection. Under this view, financial agents compete and adapt, but they do not necessarily do so in an optimal fashion. Evolutionary and ecological models of financial markets is truly a new frontier whose exploration has just begun.Comment: 2 page

Opportunities for Bio-Based Solvents Created as Petrochemical and Fuel Products Transition towards Renewable Resources

The global bio-based chemical market is growing in size and importance. Bio-based solvents such as glycerol and 2-methyltetrahydrofuran are often discussed as important introductions to the conventional repertoire of solvents. However adoption of new innovations by industry is typically slow. Therefore it might be anticipated that neoteric solvent systems (e.g., ionic liquids) will remain niche, while renewable routes to historically established solvents will continue to grow in importance. This review discusses bio-based solvents from the perspective of their production, identifying suitable feedstocks, platform molecules, and relevant product streams for the sustainable manufacturing of conventional solvents

A comparison of the solvation power of the green solvent 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane versus toluene via partition coefficients

2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane [previously published as 2,2,5,5-tetramethyltetrahydrofuran (TMTHF)] has recently been demonstrated as a greener and cleaner alternative to toluene in several applications. Assessing similarities in properties of toluene and 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane is crucial for establishing this molecules potential to replace traditional non-polar organic solvents in the cleaner production of chemicals and materials. However, the Hansen solubility parameters (HSP) and Kamlet-Taft parameters (KT) give conflicting views on their similarities and differences, which necessitates a full comparative characterisation of the solvation environment of these two solvents. Such comparisons have been achieved through a direct and extensive determination of partition coefficients between each of the two solvents and water. The partition coefficients and Abraham's solvation parameter model have quantitatively clarified the similarities and differences in properties of 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane and toluene. Solutes of high dipolarity and hydrogen-bond accepting ability tended to favour the aqueous phase in both systems, while large molar volume and high refractive indices favoured the organic phase. A significant difference between 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane and toluene was observed for hydrogen-bond donating solutes. In general, such solutes strongly preferred the aqueous phase in the toluene/water system but preferred the organic phase in the 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane/water system. This was due to the interaction of the protic solutes with the lone pairs of electrons on the ethereal oxygen of 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane, a feature that is not present on toluene, and opens up new possibilities for applications of this sustainable solvent in liquid-liquid extraction, particularly in the isolation of natural products. As toluene is such an important solvent in the chemical industry, its replacement with a greener alternative such as 2,2,5,5-tetramethyloxolane would be hugely significant for cleaner synthesis, extractions and separations

Does the European Union have a reverse gear? Policy dismantling in a hyperconsensual polity

The financial crisis has triggered demands to halt and even reverse the expansion of European Union (EU) policies. But have these and previous demands actually resulted in policy dismantling? The existing literature has charted the rise of dismantling discourses such as subsidiarity and better regulation, but has not examined the net effect on the acquis. For the first time, this contribution addresses this gap in the literature through an empirical study of policy change between 1992 and 2014. It is guided by a coding framework which captures the direction of policy change. It reveals that, despite its disposition towards consensualism, the EU has become a new locus of policy dismantling. However, not all policies targeted have been cut; many have stayed the same and some have even expanded. It concludes by identifying new directions for research on a topic that has continually fallen into the analytical blind spot of EU scholars

Morphological Biosignatures and the Search for Life on Mars

This report provides a rationale for the advances in instrumentation and understanding needed to assess claims of ancient and extraterrestrial life made on the basis of morphological biosignatures. Morphological biosignatures consist of bona fide microbial fossils as well as microbially influenced sedimentary structures. To be recognized as evidence of life, microbial fossils must contain chemical and structural attributes uniquely indicative of microbial cells or cellular or extracellular processes. When combined with various research strategies, high-resolution instruments can reveal such attributes and elucidate how morphological fossils form and become altered, thereby improving the ability to recognize them in the geological record on Earth or other planets. Also, before fossilized microbially influenced sedimentary structures can provide evidence of life, criteria to distinguish their biogenic from non-biogenic attributes must be established. This topic can be advanced by developing process-based models. A database of images and spectroscopic data that distinguish the suite of bona fide morphological biosignatures from their abiotic mimics will avoid detection of false-positives for life. The use of high-resolution imaging and spectroscopic instruments, in conjunction with an improved knowledge base of the attributes that demonstrate life, will maximize our ability to recognize and assess the biogenicity of extraterrestrial and ancient terrestrial life

NASA Sea Ice Validation Program for the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager

The history of the program is described along with the SSM/I sensor, including its calibration and geolocation correction procedures used by NASA, SSM/I data flow, and the NASA program to distribute polar gridded SSM/I radiances and sea ice concentrations (SIC) on CD-ROMs. Following a discussion of the NASA algorithm used to convert SSM/I radiances to SICs, results of 95 SSM/I-MSS Landsat IC comparisons for regions in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are presented. The Landsat comparisons show that the overall algorithm accuracy under winter conditions is 7 pct. on average with 4 pct. negative bias. Next, high resolution active and passive microwave image mosaics from coordinated NASA and Navy aircraft underflights over regions of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas in March 1988 were used to show that the algorithm multiyear IC accuracy is 11 pct. on average with a positive bias of 12 pct. Ice edge crossings of the Bering Sea by the NASA DC-8 aircraft were used to show that the SSM/I 15 pct. ice concentration contour corresponds best to the location of the initial bands at the ice edge. Finally, a summary of results and recommendations for improving the SIC retrievals from spaceborne radiometers are provided

Elucidating enzymatic polymerisations : Chain-length selectivity of Candida antarctica lipase B towards various aliphatic diols and dicarboxylic acid diesters

The sustainable synthesis of polymers is a field with growing interest due to the need of modern society to preserve the environment whilst making used products and food sustainable for the future generations. In this work we investigate the possibility of synthesizing aliphatic polyesters derived from various dicarboxylic acid diesters and diols in a solvent-free reaction system. Candida antarctica lipase B was selected as biocatalyst and its selectivity towards the carbon and ester chain length were elucidated. The selected enzyme was able to synthesize various polyesters combining C4-C10 diesters and C4-C8 diols. All combinations led to monomer conversions above 90% in 24 h with the best number average molecular weights (Mn) being obtained through the combination of dimethyl adipate and 1,8-octanediol leading to a Mn of 7141 Da. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis shows a clear trend with an increase in melting temperature of the polymers that correlates with both the increase of the Mn or of the polymer's constitutional repeat unit carbon chain length. Thermogravimetric analysis and rheology measurements performed on selected samples also confirm the trend showing a variation of the polymer's degradation temperatures and viscosity profiles

The potential for utilising in-hospital glucose measurements to detect individuals at high risk of previously undiagnosed diabetes: retrospective cohort study

Background Many people with undiagnosed diabetes have hyperglycaemia when admitted to hospital. Inpatient hyperglycaemia can be an indication of diabetes mellitus but can also indicate a stress response. This study reports the extent to which an in-hospital maximum observed random glucose measurement is an indicator of the need for in-hospital (or subsequent) HbA1c measurement to look for undiagnosed diabetes. Methods Blood glucose, HbA1c, age and sex were collected for all adults following admission to a UK NHS trust hospital from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2020. We restricted the analysis to those participants who were registered with a GP practice that uses the trust laboratory and who had at least some tests requested by those practices since 2008. We stratified individuals according to their maximum in-hospital glucose measurement and report the number of these with HbA1c measurement ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) prior to the index admission, and during and after admission. We calculated an estimated proportion of individuals in each blood glucose stratum without a follow-up HbA1c who could have undiagnosed diabetes. Results In toal, 764,241 glucose measurements were recorded for 81,763 individuals who were admitted to the Oxford University Hospitals Trust. The median (Q1, Q3) age was 70 (56, 81) years, and 53% were males. Of the population, 70.7% of individuals declared themselves to be of White ethnicity, 3.1% of Asian background, and 1.1% of Black background, with 23.1% unstated. Of those individuals, 22,375 (27.4%) had no previous HbA1c measurement recorded. A total of 1689 individuals had a diabetes-range HbA1c during or after their hospital admission (2.5%) while we estimate an additional 1496 (2.2%) may have undiagnosed diabetes, with the greatest proportion of these having an in-hospital glucose of ≥15 mmol/L. We estimate that the number needed to detect a possible new case of diabetes falls from 16 (in-hospital glucose 8 mmol/L to <9 mmol/L) to 4 (14 mmol/L to <15 mmol/L). Conclusion The number of people who need to be tested to identify an individual who may have diabetes decreases as a testing threshold based on maximum in-hospital glucose concentration increases. Among those with hyperglycaemia and no previous HbA1c measurement in the diabetes range, there appears to be a lack of subsequent HbA1c measurement. This work identifies the potential for integrating the testing and follow-up of people, with apparently unrecognised hospital hyperglycaemia across primary and secondary care

Assessment of High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Levels as Diagnostic Discriminator of Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young Due to HNF1A Mutations

OBJECTIVE: Despite the clinical importance of an accurate diagnosis in individuals with monogenic forms of diabetes, restricted access to genetic testing leaves many patients with undiagnosed diabetes. Recently, common variation near the HNF1 homeobox A (HNF1A) gene was shown to influence C-reactive protein levels in healthy adults. We hypothesized that serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) could represent a clinically useful biomarker for the identification of HNF1A mutations causing maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Serum hs-CRP was measured in subjects with HNF1A-MODY (n = 31), autoimmune diabetes (n = 316), type 2 diabetes (n = 240), and glucokinase (GCK) MODY (n = 24) and in nondiabetic individuals (n = 198). The discriminative accuracy of hs-CRP was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and performance was compared with standard diagnostic criteria. Our primary analyses excluded approximately 11% of subjects in whom the single available hs-CRP measurement was &gt;10 mg/l. RESULTS: Geometric mean (SD range) hs-CRP levels were significantly lower (

Performance of point-of-care HbA1c test devices: implications for use in clinical practice – a systematic review and meta-analysis

Regular monitoring of glycated hemoglobin subfraction A1c (HbA1c) in people with diabetes and treatment with glucose-lowering medications to improve glycaemic control can reduce the risk of developing complications [1]. In 2011, a World Health Organization consultation concluded that HbA1cat a threshold of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) can be used as a diagnostic test for diabetes [2]. HbA1c monitoring often requires the patient to attend the health center twice: once to have blood taken and then returning to get test results and receive adjustments to medication. Point-of-care (POC) analysers are bench-top instruments that use a finger-prick blood sample and are designed for use in a treatment room or at the bed-side. They provide a test result within a few minutes allowing clinical decisions and medication changes to take place immediately. The suitability of many of these devices for the accurate measurement of HbA1c has been questioned, with some POC HbA1c test devices reported not to meet accepted accuracy and precision criteria [3]. Ideal imprecision goals for HbA1c should be coefficient of variation (CV) of <2% for HbA1c reported in % units (or <3% in SI units, mmol/mol) [4], [5], [6]. Most evaluations of POC HbA1c devices have taken place in laboratory settings [7], [8]; fewer studies have assessed device performance in a POC setting or with clinicians performing the tests [9], [10]. The only published review that has attempted to combine data from accuracy studies identified five studies covering three devices and compared correlation coefficients [11]. Systematically reporting and pooling data estimates of bias and precision between POC HbA1c devices and laboratory measurements would enable end users to assess which analysers best meet their analytical performance needs. This may be of particular importance for clinicians in primary care settings where much of the management of diabetes patients takes place. The comparison of accuracy between devices over the entire therapeutic range would need to be carried out by combining data on measurement error (bias) between POC and laboratory tests [12]. The aim of this study was to compare accuracy and precision of POC HbA1c devices with the local laboratory method based on data from published studies and discuss the clinical implications of the findings