The effects of a Severn Barrage on wave conditions in the Bristol Channel

The study investigates the impact that construction of a Severn Barrage in the Severn Estuary, on the west coast of the UK, might have on local wave conditions. Implementation of a barrage will impact on tidal currents and water elevations in the wider region. There is strong tidal modulation of wave conditions under the natural regime and therefore barrage-induced changes to tidal conditions could affect wave modulation in the region. This paper uses Swan, an open source 3rd generation spectral wave model, to investigate the possible impacts of construction of a barrage on tidal modulation of the wave conditions. It is found that current variations, rather than water level variations, are the dominant factor in tidal modulation of wave conditions. Barrage implementation does not substantially change the modulation of the wave period or direction. However, barrage implementation does affect the tidal modulation of wave heights in the area of interest. The tidal modulation of the wave heights is generally reduced compared to the natural case; the peaks in the wave heights on an incoming tide are slightly lowered and there is lesser attenuation in wave heights on the outgoing tide. This modulation leads to net changes in the wave heights over one tidal cycle. For all of the tested wave conditions, this net change is small for the majority of the tested domain, namely to within ±5% of the no barrage case. There are some areas of greater change, most notably larger net increases in the wave heights near the North Somerset coast where the post-construction net wave height increase over a tidal cycle approach 20% of the pre-construction conditions. These changes do not impact coastal flooding because the wave height increase is not co-incident with high tide. Importantly, the maximum wave height is not increased and thus the likelihood of extreme events is not increased. The area of greatest reduction is between Swansea and Porthcawl. Changes over a neap tidal cycle show similar patterns of net change, but the modulation over the tidal cycle is different; primarily the magnitude of modulation is half that for the spring tide case and the shape is altered in some locations

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making

A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs)