APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN TECHNIQUE FOR PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN A FERMENTATIVE PROCESS

In the current world scenario, there has been noted an increase of researches on biofuel production, more specifically bioethanol, produced from biomass, in order to obtain more information to analyze, understand and optimize this fermentative process. The modelling process, which include the determination of a kinetic model and its respective parameters, is a fundamental step in defining operating strategies and understand how the experimental conditions can affect the optimal system operating conditions. The present work employs a bayesian technique to estimate the parameters of a classical kinectic model used by Silva and collaborators (2016), because, unlike the classical techniques, it is possible to take into account the uncertainty of the measurements and the prior knowledge of the parameters can be accounted for in probabilistic terms. In this context, by using simulated measurements, for the parameters estimation it is propose a sensitivity analysis of the parameters model to define the most relevant ones to be estimate and the use of the Monte Carlo Markov Chain method through the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, evaluating the influence of four types of priori probability distribution of data set: uniform, gaussian, log-normal and Rayleigh. The obtained results showed that the sensibility analysis is an important step on parameter estimation and algorithm used was satisfactory in estimating the parameters of the kinectic model used, demonstrating the possibility of using it as a tool for time and cost reduction in experimental tests

March of the Green Iguana : Non-native Distribution and Predicted Geographic Range of Iguana iguana in the Greater Caribbean Region

Green Iguanas (Iguana iguana L. 1758) have been introduced outside their native range largely through the pet trade. In many places, exotic populations have invaded and many have become established. Of special concern is the Greater Caribbean Basin, where several exotic populations of Green Iguanas have had a negative impact, and may threaten the conservation of several native species, including possible native and distinct forms of I. iguana in the Lesser Antilles, and the endangered Lesser Antilles Iguana (I. delicatissima Laurenti 1768). We assessed the risk of spread and invasion by Green Iguanas in the Greater Caribbean Basin using the maximum entropy niche-modeling algorithm (MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of this reptile. We used a total of 187 location points that represented occurrences from both the native and the invasive range, coupled with environmental data as predictor variables. Our model had average training and test AUC values of 0.90 and 0.87 respectively, indicating a high predictive ability. The model predicts suitable conditions for I. iguana in south and central Florida (mainly along the coast), and in regions of all the islands in the Caribbean. Given the known negative impact of Green Iguanas and their dispersal capabilities, governments in the Greater Caribbean Basin should manage non-native populations to prevent further spread, and revise and enact laws that allow management agencies to respond quickly in the case of new Green Iguana incursions

Capillary wave turbulence on a spherical fluid surface in low gravity

We report the observation of capillary wave turbulence on the surface of a fluid layer in a low-gravity environment. In such conditions, the fluid covers all the internal surface of the spherical container which is submitted to random forcing. The surface wave amplitude displays power-law spectrum over two decades in frequency, corresponding to wavelength from $mm$ to a few $cm$. This spectrum is found in roughly good agreement with wave turbulence theory. Such a large scale observation without gravity waves has never been reached during ground experiments. When the forcing is periodic, two-dimensional spherical patterns are observed on the fluid surface such as subharmonic stripes or hexagons with wavelength satisfying the capillary wave dispersion relation

The emergence and evolution of optimistic expectations in school-children

Al aproximarnos al estudio del optimismo en niños, encontramos la aparición de un sesgo que les lleva a elaborar predicciones optimistas. Con esta investigación pretendemos conocer los cambios que se producen en la etapa de educación primaria (6-12 años), tanto en la aparición del sesgo optimista como en la explicaciones que los niños hacen de sus predicciones. Han participado un total de 77 alumnos a los que de manera individual y mediante un formato de entrevista piagetiana se les ha pedido realizar predicciones sobre diferentes situaciones hipotéticas. Tras un primer análisis para establecer si la predicción del niño implicaba un cambio en sentido optimista o pesimista, se han categorizado las respuestas ofrecidas por los niños al argumentar su predicción. Los resultados muestran que los participantes en esta investigación consideran más probable el cambio positivo para eventos psicológicos o híbridos que para los biológicos, y que estos cambios son más probables entre los niños de menor edad. En cuanto a las explicaciones de estos cambios, los niños consideran que la propia naturaleza o el paso del tiempo pueden ser responsables de los mismos sin mediar otro tipo de intervenciones. Igualmente, razones parecidas suelen dar los niños mayores para explicar el mantenimiento de las situaciones. When we study optimism in children, we note the temporary emergence of a bias that leads them to make optimistic predictions. In this study we intend to learn more about changes that can be observed in the optimistic bias of 6-to 12-year old schoolchildren when they predict future events, and in the way they justify those predictions. A total of 77 pupils participated in this study; we evaluated each one of them individually with a Piagetian interview, asking them to formulate predictions about a series of hypothetical situations. After analyzing whether a child’s prediction implied that the situation would maintain itself or would change for better or for worse, we classified the justifications they provided for their predictions. Results show that these subjects regarded positive change as more likely in the case of psychological or hybrid events than for purely biological ones, and that younger children tended to display a greater bias in favor of the likelihood of positive change. These younger children justified their predictions stating that nature or the passing of time could be responsible for the changes, without needing further intervention on the part of other agents. Older children, on the other hand, tended to provide similar kinds of explanations to justify their expectation of stasis

Cómo formar al profesorado de secundaria para satisfacer las necesidades educativas de la próxima década

El artículo pretende contribuir a la definición del perfil docente en Educación Secundaria y acentuar su función pedagógica. Se trata de un estudio de revisión teórica y análisis descriptivo. Primero, se sintetiza el contexto normativo trazado para la educación hasta el 2030 por la UNESCO y la OECD. Después, se explora en profundidad la literatura científica buscando los núcleos fundamentales sobre los que construir un perfil común para el profesorado de secundaria. Tras un proceso de clasificación temática con sentido práctico, los contenidos se articulan en cuatro categorías fundamentales, fruto de la reflexión sobre las fuentes consultadas. El marco teórico resultante, formado por cuatro funciones y roles asociados, constituye un posible modelo de formación transdisciplinar docente. En la conclusión se propone la continuidad del debate sobre qué valor tiene el conocimiento pedagógico en el profesorado de secundaria; y cuáles son las implicaciones prácticas que se extraen del cuerpo teórico analizado. The article aims to contribute to the definition of the profile of teachers in Secondary Education and to emphasize its pedagogical function. It is a study of theoretical review and descriptive analysis. First, its synthesized the normative context outlined for education until 2030 by UNESCO and the OECD. Then, the scientific literature is explored in depth, looking for the focal points on which to build a common profile for secondary school teachers. After a process of thematic classification with practical sense, the contents are divided into four fundamental categories, as consequences of reflection on the sources consulted. The resulting theoretical framework, consisting of four functions and associated roles, constitutes a possible model for transdisciplinary teacher training. In the conclusion, the continuity of the debate on the value of pedagogical knowledge in secondary school teachers is proposed; and what are the practical implications that are extracted from the theoretical body analyzed

Key soft skills in the orientation process and level of employability

We understand soft skills as an integrated set of knowledge, skills and values that facilitate the effective, affective and efficient development of a skill or activity. The objective of this study was to identify the soft skills that are most often used in the orientation process and those that improve employability, according to Spanish counselors. A qualitative methodology was used. The participants (n = 57) were orientation professionals. A total of 273 interviews were conducted over five years. The results and conclusions show that communication and decision-making are the most important competencies in the orientation process and at the level of employability, followed by intrapersonal skills, skills in interpersonal relationships, teamwork, problem solving, adaptation to new situations, creativity and leadership