A data mining approach for the monitoring of active labour market policies

The paper addresses the problem of evaluation of the effectiveness of Active Labour Policies in the province of Bologna, a manufacturing district in Northern Italy, during the period 2004/2006. Using surviving analysis through Kaplan Meier filter and a new approach to propensity score computation, the Authors shows that the policies run by the Labor Market Authorities are able to compensate the disavatanges that secondary labor forces such as migrants, old age or less educated workers have in getting a job when fired. Moreover, they put new light on the transitions from temporary job to permanent jobs, and show that the probability of transitions is very low.Mercato del lavoro, Precarietà, Valutazione delle politiche Labour Market, Temporary Jobs, Evaluation of Policy Effectiveness

A data mining approach for the monitoring of active labour market policies

The paper addresses the problem of evaluation of the effectiveness of Active Labour Policies in the province of Bologna, a manufacturing district in Northern Italy, during the period 2004/2006. Using surviving analysis through Kaplan Meier filter and a new approach to propensity score computation, the Authors shows that the policies run by the Labor Market Authorities are able to compensate the disavatanges that secondary labor forces such as migrants, old age or less educated workers have in getting a job when fired. Moreover, they put new light on the transitions from temporary job to permanent jobs, and show that the probability of transitions is very low

Il dualismo del mercato del lavoro e la transizione da lavoro temporaneo a lavoro a tempo indeterminato in provincia di Bologna

In this present study we are going to avail ourselves of figures regarding new employment and employment termination, registered at the Bologna Provincial Labour Exchange for the three-year period 2004-2006, in order to calculate the duration of job placements, according to the type of contract, and the likelihood of temporary workers being made unemployed: in order to do so, we shall utilise the survival curves method based on the Kaplan and Maier filter (Cox and Oates, 1984). Given the impossibility of estimating true transition matrices, in that the database fails to \u201ccover\u201d all outgoing events, the survival curves method at least enables us to estimate the \u201cduration\u201d of permanence in a given state. The utilisation of the Bologna Provincial Employment Centre\u2019s records enables us to cover a sufficiently long period of time, which in turn enables us to obtain sufficiently stable estimates unaffected by contingencies. Clearly, the results may not be generalised for the whole of Italy, although they do nevertheless provide a meaningful insight into the situation of temporary workers (also given the healthy state of the Bologna province\u2019s labour market)

Parole, soltanto parole, parole tra noi

In recent years there has been a fair amount of debate in Italy about regional differences in student achievements at the end of the high school cycle (Esame di Stato). In particular, concerns have been expressed about the performance of students in Southern Italy, higher than the national average, while standardized tests of learning outcomes point to a very different situation. The paper investigates this issue using simple statistical methods to disentangle the geographical area effect from the effects of other characteristics. The main finding is that a regional effect is present in final grades, but it is more important in the area of Central Italy rather than in Southern Italy

The EU and the world : tuning to be heard

On 28 June 2016, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini presented the “The Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy” (EUGS) to the European Council. The EUGS’ main objective is to articulate and sustain a coherent vision for the external action of the EU. As such, it sheds some light on the matter of the EU’s strategy in world affairs, its effectiveness, the variables affecting it, and Europe’s reaction to them, particularly as regards the emergence of a “strategic autonomy” as the means to pursue Europe’s goals. This chapter attempts to provide an assessment of the first three years of the EUGS by examining the EU’s relations with its major partners. We discuss the concept of strategic autonomy and how the EU’s relations with its partners contribute to this debate. In doing so, we first provide a brief overview of the EUGS and discuss what “strategic autonomy” entails. We then examine the relationship between the EU and the United States (US) in the context of NATO. We continue our analysis with EU-Russian relations, current EU-Turkish relationship, EU-China cooperation and the outlook of the Western Balkans in joining the EU. We conclude by examining Italy’s foreign policy agenda towards the EU security and defence policy and the development of a European strategic autonom

Geostrategies of the European neighbourhood policy

The debate about the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has, in essence, been about borders and bordering. Such departures could contribute — and often do so — to a rather fixed geopolitical vision of what the EU is about and how it aims to run and to organize the broader European space. However, this article aims to retain space for viewing the ENP as a developmental and somewhat fluid process. A conceptual framework, based on outlining three geopolitical models and a series of different geopolitical strategies employed by the EU in regard to its borders, is hence employed in order to be able to tell a more dynamic story regarding the developing nature of the ENP and the EU's evolving nature more generally. The complexity traced informs us that various geostrategies may be held at the same time at the external border. Moreover, the dominance of one geostrategy may be replaced by another or a different combination of them with regard to the same neighbourhood. It is, more generally, argued that if anything it is precisely this dynamism that should be championed as a valuable resource, avoiding the tendency to close off options through the reification of particular visions of the nature of the EU and its borders

A Multi-Center Study Investigating Long COVID-19 in Healthcare Workers from North-Eastern Italy: Prevalence, Risk Factors and the Impact of Pre-Existing Humoral Immunity—ORCHESTRA Project

Abstract: Introduction: The impact of long-COVID-19 syndrome is rather variable, since it is influenced by several residual confounders. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of long COVID-19 in healthcare workers (HCWs) from four university hospitals in north-eastern Italy: Trieste, Padua, Verona, and Modena-Reggio Emilia. Methods: During the period June 2022–August 2022, HCWs were surveyed for past COVID-19 infections, medical history, and any acute as well as post-COVID-19 symptoms. The prevalence of long COVID-19 was estimated at 30–60 days or 61+ days following first and second COVID-19 episode. Furthermore, the risk of long COVID-19 since the first negative swab test was investigated by multivariable logistic regression. Results were expressed as the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Results: 5432 HCWs returned a usable questionnaire: 2401 were infected with SARS-CoV-2 at least once, and 230 were infected at least twice, and 8 were infected at least three times. The prevalence of long COVID-19 after first COVID-19 infection was 24.0% at 30–60 days versus 16.3% at 61+ days, and 10.5% against 5.5% after the second SARS-CoV-2 event. The most frequent symptoms after a first COVID-19 event were asthenia (30.3%), followed by myalgia (13.7%), cough (12.4%), dyspnea (10.2%), concentration deficit (8.1%), headache (7.3%), and anosmia (6.5%), in decreasing order of prevalence. The risk of long COVID-19 at 30–60 days was significantly higher in HCWs hospitalized for COVID-19 (aOR = 3.34; 95%CI: 1.62; 6.89), those infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic waves—namely the Wuhan (aOR = 2.16; 95%CI: 1.14; 4.09) or Alpha (aOR= 2.05; 95%CI: 1.25; 3.38) transmission periods—and progressively increasing with the viral shedding time (VST), especially 15+ days (aOR = 3.20; 95%CI: 2.07; 4.94). The further determinants of long COVID-19 at 30–60 days since first the COVID-19 event were female sex (aOR = 1.91; 95%CI: 1.30; 2.80), age >40 years, abnormal BMI, or administrative services (reference category). In contrast, HCWs vaccinated with two doses before their primary infection (aOR = 0.57; 95%CI: 0.34; 0.94), undergraduate students, or postgraduate medical trainees were less likely to experience long COVID-19 at 30–60 days. Apart from pandemic waves, the main determinants of long COVID-19 at 30–60 days were confirmed at 61+ days. Conclusions: The risk of long COVID-19 following first infection increased with the severity of acute disease and VST, especially during the initial pandemic waves, when more virulent viral strains were circulating, and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 was higher since most HCWs had not been infected yet, COVID-19 vaccines were still not available, and/or vaccination coverage was still building up. The risk of long COVID-19 therefore decreased inversely with humoral immunity at the individual level. Nevertheless, the prevalence of long COVID-19 was remarkably lower after SARS-CoV-2 reinfections regardless of vaccination status, suggesting that hybrid humoral immunity did not increase protection against the syndrome compared to immunity mounted by either natural infection or vaccination separately. Since the risk of long COVID-19 is currently low with Omicron and patients who developed the syndrome following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the early pandemic waves tend to return to a state of full health with time, a cost-effective approach to screen post-COVID-19 symptoms during the Omicron time could be restricted to vulnerable individuals developing severe disease and/or with prolonged VST

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Security and Integration in the EU Neighborhood: the Case for Regionalism. CEPS Working Documents No. 226, 1 July 2005

This paper makes the case for regionalism as a possible conceptual framework and policy instrument to address the challenges posed by Europe’s new, diverse neighbourhood. It explains why, where and how regionalism can emerge as a political practice and policy instrument that contributes to tackling the correlation between security and integration in the wider European space. A set of recommendations to develop regionalism is then proposed and applied to the emerging case of the Black Sea Region