Fiscal Policy in Brazil through the Lens of an Estimated DSGE Model

This paper takes Brazilian data to an open economy DSGE model that features realistic aspects of fiscal policy in Brazil. The model incorporates primary surplus targets, cyclical expenditures and social programs in the form of public transfers, public investment and distortive taxation. We test for two competing specifications of the role of public capital in the real economy. Bayesian model comparison favors the infrastructure approach to public capital. The presence of non-Ricardian households allows fiscal policy shocks to affect real economy aggregates and distribution. The model is used to address questions regarding the effect of shocks to different fiscal policy instruments upon the business cycle. We also investigate whether recent fiscal policy in Brazil has exerted significant inflationary pressures.

Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh

This paper aims at correcting flaws in the way expectations are set in a paper by Walsh (2000) in order to assess with precision the impact of complex market rigidities and market expectations in the optimal choices of inflation in a monetary game between society and central bankers. After setting the expectations right, one of the results achieved indicates that the optimal inflation under any type of central banker is higher than that obtained in the original paper, suggesting that the time inconsistency phenomenon plays a more important role in explaining an inflationary bias than originally interpreted by Walsh (2000). However, if society organizes itself towards shorter tenure wage contracts, inflation will be lower. The results obtained for the output gap of the economy also differ from those achieved by Walsh in the sense that a central banker who is highly committed to previously announced inflation targets will have more opportunities to generate output growth above equilibrium rates and still commit. Finally, the stability of the premises regarding the contractual structure of the economy proposed by Walsh is tested under a game theoretic approach. The outcome of the test is that stability can be guaranteed only under strong assumptions and high symmetry in the sectoral distribution of firms. By using a social welfare function in which price surprises in any direction lead to welfare loss, the results indicate that society is better off by choosing longer tenure wage contracts, moving away from shorter tenure ones, at the cost of higher inflation.

The Incidence of Reserve Requirements in Brazil: Do Bank Stockholders Share the Burden?

There is consensus in the economic literature that the reserve requirements are a tax levied upon financial intermediation, yet the incidence of the tax remains controversial. In this paper, we test whether changes in reserve requirements in Brazil impact the stock returns of the financial system distinctly from the rest of the economy. We find evidence that Brazilian bank stock returns were affected by changes in reserve requirements on both time deposits and transaction accounts, which implies that the tax burden of required reserves was not fully passed through to banks' borrowers or clients. Stock returns of non-financial firms were also affected by these changes, suggesting that in some cases, reserve requirements on time deposits and transaction accounts served as a non-neutral instrument of monetary or fiscal policy in Brazil.

The incidence of reserve requirements in Brazil: Do bank stockholders share the burden?

There is consensus in the economic literature that reserve requirements are a tax levied upon financial intermediation, yet the incidence of the tax remains controversial. In this paper, we test whether changes in reserve requirements in Brazil impact the stock returns of the Brazilian financial system distinctly from the rest of the economy. We show that Brazilian bank stock returns may have been affected by changes in reserve requirements on both time deposits and transaction accounts, which implies that the tax burden of required reserves has not been fully passed through to banks’ borrowers or clients. Stock returns of non-financial firms may also have been affected by changes in reserve requirements, suggesting that in some cases, reserve requirements on time deposits and transaction accounts served as a non-neutral instrument of monetary or fiscal policy in Brazil.tax incidence, reserve requirements, event studies

HCV coinfection in a cohort of HIV pregnant women

Orientador: Helaine Maria Besteti Pires Mayer MilanezDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências MédicasResumo: Objetivo: Avaliar características clínicas, epidemiológicas e transmissão vertical (TV) em gestantes portadoras do vírus HIV, comparando um grupo com coinfecção para hepatite C (HCV) com o grupo sem esta condição. Sujeitos e Métodos: Estudo de coorte retrospectivo de gestantes infectadas pelo HIV e seus recém-nascidos correspondentes, atendidos no CAISM/UNICAMP no período de 2000 a 2015. Foram analisadas as coinfectadas HIV-HCV versus as não-coinfectadas e avaliados efeitos colaterais maternos, intercorrências gestacionais, evolução dos recém-nascidos e transmissão vertical do HIV e do HCV. Análise dos dados: análise descritiva através de distribuição percentual e de médias, teste de X², exato de Fisher, t de Student, Mann-Whitney e MANOVA, razão de risco e intervalo de confiança. Resultados: Foram encontradas 63 coinfectadas com o VHC dentre as 816 gestantes portadoras do HIV (7,7%). A principal via de aquisição da coinfecção foi a sexual (86,8%). Com relação às intercorrências gestacionais, a presença de diabetes e hipertensão gestacional foi de 10,5% e 11,4% nas coinfectadas em comparação com 6% e 7% no outro grupo. Houve 12,9% de parto prematuro nas coinfectadas versus 14,2% nas não coinfectadas. As alterações de enzimas hepáticas foram observadas em mais de 10% das coinfectadas e em menos de 3% das sem coinfecção (P<0,0001). Com relação a terapia antirretroviral, mais de 60% das coinfectadas e mais de 70% das não-coinfectadas usou esquema com inibidores de protease. O peso e a idade gestacional de nascimento não foram significativas nos dois grupos observados. A ocorrência de índice de apgar baixo foi significativo, sendo 7 vezes mais prevalente nas coinfectadas. A taxa de transmissão vertical do HIV foi de 1,8% nas coinfectadas e 2,7% nas sem coinfecção. No grupo de coinfectadas ocorreram dois casos de transmissão vertical do HCV (3,1%). Conclusão: nessa coorte, a presença da coinfecção HCV-HIV não piorou os resultados gestacionais. A coorte de gestantes coinfectadas apresentou maior ocorrência de prematuridade, baixo peso e apgar <7 ao nascimento em comparação às sem infecçãoAbstract: Objective: To evaluate clinical, epidemiological characteristics and vertical transmission (VT) in pregnant women with HIV, comparing a group of co-infection of hepatitis C (HCV) to those without this condition. Subjects and Methods: A retrospective cohort study of HIV infected pregnant women and their corresponding newborns at CAISM / UNICAMP from 2000 to 2015. HIV-HCV co-infected versus non-coinfected and evaluated maternal side effects were analyzed, pregnancy complications, development of newborns and vertical transmission of HIV and HCV. Data analysis: descriptive analysis by percentage distribution and averages, X² test, Fisher exact test, Student's t test, Mann-Whitney and MANOVA, risk ratios and confidence intervals. Results: We found 63 coinfected with HCV among 816 pregnant women with HIV (7.7%). The main route of acquisition of coinfection was sexual (86.8%). With respect to pregnancy complications, presence of diabetes, and Gestational hypertension was 10.5% and 11.4% in coinfected compared to 6% and 7% in the other group. There was 12.9% of premature birth in coinfected versus 14.2% in non-coinfected. The liver enzyme abnormalities were observed in more than 10% of coinfected and less than 3% without coinfection (P <0.0001). With regards antiretroviral therapy, more than 60% of coinfected and more than 70% of the non-used scheme coinfected with protease inhibitors. The weight and gestational age at birth were not significant in the two study groups. The occurrence of low Apgar score index was significant, 7 times more prevalent in coinfected. The rate of vertical transmission of HIV was 1.8% in coinfected and 2.7% in without coinfection. In coinfected group there were two cases of vertical transmission of HCV (3.1%). Conclusion: In this cohort, the presence of HCV-HIV co-infection did not worsen the pregnancy outcomes. The cohort of coinfected pregnant women showed a higher incidence of prematurity, low birth weight and Apgar score <7 at birth compared to no infectionMestradoSaúde Materna e PerinatalMestra em Tocoginecologi

Meaning and Entrainment in Language and Music Special Issue: Introduction

overview of special double issu