Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

Entrepreneurs' exit and paths to retirement : theoretical and empirical considerations

The number of ageing entrepreneurs in micro- and small-sized companies is rapidly increasing in Finland and other European Union countries. Over half a million jobs, in over one hundred thousand companies within the EU, are lost annually due to unsuccessful, predominantly retirement-related transfers of businesses. This challenge coincides with EU Grand Challenges and has been highlighted in the Entrepreneurship 2020 Action Plan (European Commission 2013). It has been estimated that in Finland, some 8000 jobs are lost yearly due to the ageing of entrepreneurs. Therefore, entrepreneur ageing has implications not only for the ageing individual but also for the company and the society at large. As entrepreneurs age it becomes more essential for them to start planning when and how they transition into retirement. While they may experience several exits and subsequent re-entries into working life via buying or starting new companies, exiting ones entrepreneurial career due to old age retirement differs from exits that occur earlier during the career. In this chapter, we provide a short overview of the entrepreneur retirement and exit literature from an age perspective. Furthermore, we present a theoretical conceptualization which combines entrepreneur retirement process with exit theories. This will enable scholars to better understand the retirement process, including decision-making, transitioning, and adjustment to retirement. We also provide empirical evidence using data collected among Finnish entrepreneurs in 2012 and 2015, where we outline the types of exits and assess several factors, including age, in association with exit intentions.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Benchmarking and movement preservation: evidences from real-life and simulated series

The benchmarking problem arises when time series data for the same target variable are measured at different frequencies with different level of accuracy, and there is the need to remove discrepancies between annual benchmarks and corresponding sums of the sub-annual values. Two widely used benchmarking procedures are the modified Denton Proportionate First Differences (PFD) and the Causey and Trager Growth Rates Preservation (GRP) techniques. In the literature it is often claimed that the PFD procedure produces results very close to those obtained through the GRP procedure. In this chapter we study the conditions under which this result holds, by looking at an artificial and a real-life economic series, and by means of a simulation exercise

A Newton's method for benchmarking time series

We present a Newton's method with Hessian modification for benchmarking a time series according to the Causey and Trager growth rates preservation principle. The proposed technique is easy to implement, computationally robust and efficient, all features which make it an effective statistical tool also in a data-production process involving a considerable amount of series