Pronósticos de corto plazo para la actividad económica colombiana: aproximaciones DFM y Factor-MIDAS

La toma de decisiones de política económica requiere evaluar constantemente el estado de la actividad económica. Sin embargo, ello no es una tarea fácil: las cifras oficiales tienen rezagos importantes y la información más oportuna suele ser parcial y tener frecuencias dispares. Este artículo aplica dos tipos de metodologías de pronóstico de corto plazo (Factor-MIDAS y DFM) para la actividad económica colombiana involucrando información con frecuencias mixtas. Se propone un proceso heurístico para la selección de variables relevantes y se evalúa el ajuste de los modelos comparándolo respecto a metodologías usuales de proyección. En general, los pronósticos de los modelos Factor-MIDAS y del DFM superan los generados por metodologías tradicionales, con resultados más precisos en la medida que aumenta el flujo de información. En tiempos del COVID-19, el modelo con el mejor ajuste relativo fue el DFM.Economic policy decision-making requires constantly assessing the state of economic activity. However, this is not an easy task: official figures have significant lags, and the timely information is usually partial and has different frequencies. This paper applies two types of short-term forecasting methodologies (Factor-MIDAS and DFM) for Colombian economic activity involving information with mixed frequencies. We present a heuristic process to select relevant variables, and we evaluate the proposed models' fits by comparing them with traditional forecasting methodologies. Overall, DFM and Factor-MIDAS forecasts are better than those generated by conventional methodologies, especially as the flow of information increases. In times of COVID-19, the model with the best relative fit was the DFM.Pronósticos de corto plazo para la actividad económica colombiana: aproximaciones DFM y Factor-MIDAS Enfoque Se presentan algunas de las metodologías utilizadas por el equipo técnico del Banco de la República para evaluar y pronosticar el pasado reciente, presente y futuro cercano de la actividad económica colombiana. Estos horizontes son relevantes dadas las características de las cifras oficiales, por ejemplo, frecuencia y rezago de publicación. Con ello, se contribuye a estimar y pronosticar correctamente el ciclo económico y, en consecuencia, a informar de mejor manera la toma de decisiones de política económica. De esta forma, se presentan aplicaciones para Colombia de los modelos Factor-MIDAS (Factor - Mixed Data Sampling) y DFM (Dynamic Factor Models), ampliamente utilizados en la literatura. Estos, permiten una correcta valoración de las condiciones macroeconómicas, al incluir un gran número de variables de distintas frecuencias, con la ventaja de admitir muestras desbalanceadas. El artículo muestra la evaluación de los modelos fuera de muestra mediante un ejercicio de pseudo tiempo real y propone un algoritmo heurístico para la selección de variables según su desempeño de pronóstico. Contribución El trabajo contribuye a los esfuerzos de predicción de la actividad económica colombiana en el corto plazo, integrando frecuencias mixtas y síntesis de información. En ello, consideramos indicadores relevantes no incluidos en documentos anteriores y complementamos la investigación sobre pronósticos en Colombia con metodologías relativamente nuevas, las cuales exhiben mejores resultados que otras aproximaciones. Resultados Los resultados son adecuados para previsiones a corto plazo. Algunos modelos Factor-MIDAS y, en particular, el DFM tienen una buena capacidad de pronóstico y superan a los modelos habituales de referencia, especialmente cuando el flujo de información aumenta. Además, el DFM parece superar a los modelos Factor-MIDAS en esta aplicación. Sin embargo, en tiempos del Covid-19, los resultados de los modelos no fueron precisos. A pesar de que siguen la dirección correcta, se desvían de forma importante de los datos observados, dados los fuertes cambios que caracterizan este período. De hecho, se encuentra que un modelo más simple como el Bridge-ISE (utilizado como referencia de comparación), podría presentar mejores resultados bajo este contexto. Frase destacada: El trabajo contribuye a los esfuerzos de predicción de la actividad económica colombiana en el corto plazo, integrando frecuencias mixtas y síntesis de información

Terras Pretas de Índio of the Caquetá-Japurá River (Colombian Amazonia)

Amazonian dark earths, or terra preta, constitute archaeological evidence of ancient human settlements. They are distributed throughout the Amazon basin, especially concentrated along its major rivers. In the region of La Pedrera, on the Caquetá (Japurá) River in Colombian Amazonia, archaeological studies have demonstrated the presence of these fertile soils extending over areas of 3 to 5 hectares with an anthropic horizon that varies from 70 cm to 1.2 m in depth. Associated with the sites are faunal remains from fish, turtles, and small rodents, as well as a high density of ceramic fragments and botanical remains, including phytoliths, charcoal, and seeds, the latter two dated to between 6500 and 1300 yBP. Archaeobotanical data (seeds and phytoliths) suggest intensive use of palms by pre-Columbian peoples. High sample densities were observed for the following species: canangucha/burití (Mauritia flexuosa), asaí/açaí (Euterpe precatoria), seje/batauá (Oenocarpus bataua), milpesito/bacabinha (O. bacaba), chambira/tucuma (Astrocaryum chambira), palma real/inajai (Attalea maripa), puy/caraná (Lepidocaryum tenue), and species of the genus Bactris. Archaeological remains of manioc (Manihot esculenta), maize (Zea mays), and squash (Cucurbita sp.) were also identified, along with the following fruit species: Annona sp., ice cream bean/guama (Inga edulis), cocoa/cacau (Theobroma cacao), cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum) and pineapple (Ananas comosus). Various herbaceous taxa, indicators of disturbed areas, were also identified, along with elements used in the elaboration of ceramics (Licania sp.). These preliminary results suggest that the Amazonian dark earths of La Pedrera were used for agricultural production and human habitation. We also note that their location, near rapids, is strategic for fishing and land management

Los makú del noroeste amazónico

The connotations are examined of the name "maku", as used as ageneric term for those peoples of the northwest Amazon with a nomadic tradition. A study of the historical, linguistic and ethnographic literature leads to the conclusion that "maku" is not the name of any particular. Ethnic group but is rather a term which both for the sedentary indígenous population and for those people who have studied groups known as "maku", has negative connotations. Furthermore, the indiscriminate use of this word over a period of time has led to confusion in classifying these groups; the same term has been used for peoples who are linguistically and culturally different, obscuring the characteristics peculiar to each of them. Toda y these peoples live in specific contexts and maintain different relationships with the various sectors of national society and with other, neighbouring, indigenous societies, a situation which is modifying their ethnicity. The article concludes that it would best to continue to use the term Maku-puinave for the linguistic group as a whole while calling cachof the peoples that make up this group by their own ethnic name.Se examinan las connotaciones del nombre "maku", utilizado como término agenero para los pueblos del noroeste de la Amazonia con tradición nómada. Un estudio de la literatura histórica, lingüística y etnográfica lleva a la conclusión de que "maku" no es el nombre de ningún particular. Grupo étnico sino que es un término que tanto para la población indígena sedentaria como para las personas que han estudiado los grupos conocidos como "maku", tiene connotaciones negativas. Además, el uso indiscriminado de esta palabra durante un período de tiempo ha dado lugar a confusiones en la clasificación de estos grupos; el mismo término se ha utilizado para los pueblos que son lingüística y culturalmente diferentes, oscureciendo las características peculiares de cada uno de ellos. Todos y cada uno de estos pueblos viven en contextos específicos y mantienen relaciones diferentes con los diversos sectores de la sociedad nacional y con otras sociedades vecinas e indígenas, situación que está modificando su etnia. El artículo concluye que lo mejor sería seguir utilizando el término maku-puinave para el grupo lingüístico en su conjunto y llamar cachof a los pueblos que componen este grupo por su propio nombre étnico

EVALUACIÓN DE LA MEMORIA DECLARATIVA ASOCIADA CON CONTENIDO EMOCIONAL EN PACIENTES LOBECTOMIZADOS

La participación del lóbulo temporal en la memoria para eventos emocionales, ha sido evaluada utilizando la Prueba auditivo-visual, cuyo contenido emocional es presentado en narrativas complejas. El presente estudio examinó si el desempeño en el Token Test, afectaba la retención a largo plazo de información alertante emocionalmente en pacientes con lobectomía temporal unilateral. Se evaluaron 48 participantes, a quienes se les aplicó: Trail Making Test, Token Test y una Prueba auditivo-visual. De manera general, la ausencia del efecto de potenciación mnemónico encontrado en pacientes con lobectomía temporal izquierda no estuvo correlacionada con el rendimiento en el Token Test. En conjunto, se muestra la importancia de la integridad del lóbulo temporal izquierdo para la potenciación de la memoria declarativa asociada a contenido emocional

Las palmas entre los grupos cazadores-recolectores de la amazonia colombiana

We compare past and present systems of management of palms in the Colombian Amazon, based on archaeological studies of preceramic groups in the middle Caquetá region and ethnographic research on the nomadic Nukak people, who inhabit northeastern Guaviare department. Astrocaryum aculeatum, Attalea maripe, Mauritia flexuosa, Oenocarpus bataua, Oenocarpus bacaba y Oenocarpus mapora, have been used from the early Holocene through the present time. Among these, Oenocarpus bataua has remained the most important food species. We conclude that one of the mananging strategies of the tropical rain forest is the simultaneous improvement of ecological units, especially in the tertiary sedimentary plains, and that such management probably has a long history in the region.Se presenta una comparación sobre el manejo de las palmas en la Amazonia Colombiana, basado en los resultados de un estudio arqueológico de grupos precerámicos en la región del Medio Caquetá y uno etnográfico del pueblo nómada Nukak que habita la zona nororiental del departamento del Guaviare. Se encontró que Astrocaryum aculeatum, A ttalea maripa, Mauritia flexuosa, Oenocarpus bataua, Oenocarpus bacaba y Oenocarpus mapora son algunas de las palmas usadas desde el Holoceno temprano hasta el presente. Entre estas Oenocarpus bataua es la especie más importante como fuente de alimento. Así mismo, se concluye que una de las estrategias de manejo en el bosque húmedo tropical es el aprovechamiento simultáneo de diferentes unidades ecológicas, con predominio del plano sedimentario terciario. Es probable que este tipo de manejo tenga en la región una larga historia

La nutrición de los nukak. una sociedad amazónica en proceso de contacto

Una alimentación equilibrada, balanceada. suficiente y adecuada es aquella que permite al individuo el mantenimiento de un óptimo estado de salud, a la vez que le facilita el ejercicio de las distintas actividades que realiza cotidianamente. La elección de alimentos se convierte entonces en la práctica diaria de EL ACTO DE COMER a distintas horas del día; este acto de ingerir alimentas y combinarlos en las comidas, es el fruto de las diferentes normas que cada cultura ha creado de acuerdo con sus prácticas simbólicas (como los mitos y otras expresiones del pensamiento) y las relacionadas con la reproducción social (ritos de paso, procesos de socialización, restricciones alimenticias, etc.) y con la producción material (cacería, horticultura, fórmulas propiciatorias, etc.) que transforman la naturaleza, el ser humano y las relaciones sociales. Que en el fondo pretenden responder a sus concepciones de salud y bienestar y a la satisfacción de sus necesidades alimenticias

Fatores de Influência na Retenção Discente: Um Estudo com Alunos de Graduação em Ciências Contábeis

Objective: The research objective is to analyze influential factors in student retention with a view to producing indicators for the management of Accountancy courses. The factors considered derive from the model by Cabrera, Nora and Castañeda (1992), including cognitive and behavioral factors as well as factors external to the institution. Method: The data were collected through a survey, involving a sample of 155 students from an undergraduate Accountancy program. The students’ perception of the factors considered was measured on a Likert scale. The data were submitted to factorial analysis and structural equation modeling. Results: The results evidenced that the factors “encouragement by close persons” and “academic and intellectual development” were more important in the explanation of student retention. Contributions: The results contribute to the creation of mechanisms and indicators that affect the retention, contributing to the management of the Accountancy courses through the students’ perception of the course and its context.Objetivo: O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar fatores de influência na retenção discente, visando à geração de indicadores para a gestão de cursos de Ciências Contábeis. Os fatores considerados são derivados do modelo de Cabrera, Nora e Castañeda (1992) e abrangem fatores cognitivos, comportamentais e externos à instituição. Método: Os dados foram coletados por meio de pesquisa survey, com uma amostra de 155 alunos de um curso de graduação presencial em Ciências Contábeis. Mediu-se a percepção dos alunos em uma escala Likert, quanto aos fatores considerados. Os dados foram submetidos à análise fatorial e à modelagem por equações estruturais. Resultados: Os resultados evidenciaram maior importância dos fatores “encorajamento de pessoas próximas” e “desenvolvimento acadêmico e intelectual” na explicação da retenção discente. Contribuições: Os resultados contribuem para a criação de mecanismos e indicadores com impacto na retenção, colaborando com a gestão dos cursos de Ciências Contábeis, por meio da percepção dos discentes em relação ao curso e seu contexto

CARMENES input catalog of M dwarfs: VII. New rotation periods for the survey stars and their correlations with stellar activity

Abridged: We measured photometric and spectroscopic $P_{\rm rot}$ for a large sample of nearby bright M dwarfs with spectral types from M0 to M9, as part of our continual effort to fully characterize the Guaranteed Time Observation programme stars of the CARMENES survey. We determine $P_{\rm rot}$ for 129 stars. Combined with the literature, we tabulate $P_{\rm rot}$ for 261 stars, or 75% of our sample. We evaluate the plausibility of all periods available for this sample by comparing them with activity signatures and checking for consistency between multiple measurements. We find that 166 of these stars have independent evidence that confirmed their $P_{\rm rot}$. There are inconsistencies in 27 periods, which we classify as debated. A further 68 periods are identified as provisional detections that could benefit from independent verification. We provide an empirical relation for the $P_{\rm rot}$ uncertainty as a function of the $P_{\rm rot}$ value, based on the dispersion of the measurements. We show that published formal errors seem to be often underestimated for periods $\gtrsim 10$ d. We highlight the importance of independent verification on $P_{\rm rot}$ measurements, especially for inactive M dwarfs. We examine rotation-activity relations with emission in X-rays, H$\alpha$, Ca II H & K, and surface magnetic field strengths. We find overall agreement with previous works, as well as tentative differences in the partially versus fully convective subsamples. We show $P_{\rm rot}$ as a function of stellar mass, age, and galactic kinematics. With the notable exception of three transiting planet systems and TZ Ari, all known planet hosts in this sample have $P_{\rm rot} \gtrsim 15$ d. This indicates that important limitations need to be overcome before the radial velocity technique can be routinely used to detect and study planets around young and active stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

Formulação, preparação, e avaliação sensorial de hambúrguer da carne de caprinos de descarte com diferentes teores da gordura/ Formulation, preparation, and sensory evaluation of disposable goat meat hamburger with different fat contents

O principal objetivo deste trabalho é elaborar e avaliar sensorialmente hambúrguer da carne caprina utilizando carne caprina de animais de descarte com diferentes teores de gordura suíno.Foram utilizados carne dos caprinos de descarte proveniente de animais adultos sem distinção de raça, obtida da desossa integral da carcaça inteira, foi cortada em pequenos blocos e moída conjuntamente com toucinho suíno (na proporção de 10%, 15% e 20% da massa de carne) em discos de 6 mm. A carne, gordura e os outros ingredientes foram colocados em misturadeira e moldados na forma de hambúrgueres e congelada em freezer a –18°C. O hambúrguer foi servido após assada em margarina, tal como hambúrguer comercial, em cubos de aproximadamente 1,5 cm de lado. Foram analisados a intenção de compra e freqüência de consumo, além da opinião sobre a cor, odor, textura e sabor do produto. De acordo com os resultados pode-se dizer que a F3 do hambúrguer caprino foi melhor avaliada pelos julgadores, tanto para as propriedades sensoriais como para a intenção de compras. A boa aceitabilidade e a intenção de compra de 74,5 % dos provadores confirmam o potencial tecnológico da carne de caprinos de descarte. Esse resultado é advindo, provavelmente da maior maciez e suculência devido a presença da gordura satisfatório na formulação. Como a carne de descarte é uma matéria-prima de baixo custo, a elaboração de hambúrgueres permite um melhor aproveitamento das mesmas, diversificação os produtos oferecidos, agregando valor ao produto e contribui com a melhoria de renda dos produtores e conseqüente desenvolvimento do agronegócio

Monetary Policy Report - January 2021

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.Box I. Macroeconomic Expectations: Analysis of the Monthly Survey of Economic Analyst Expectations. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales, César Anzola, Jonathan Muño