Is violence increasing or decreasing?: a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations

The fall in the rate of violent crime has stopped. This is a finding of an investigation using the Crime Survey for England and Wales, 1994–2014, and an improved methodology to include the experiences of high-frequency victims. The cap on the number of crimes included has been removed. We prevent overall volatility from rising by using three-year moving averages and regression techniques that take account of all the data points rather than point to point analysis. The difference between our findings and official statistics is driven by violent crime committed against women and by domestic perpetrators. The timing of the turning point in the trajectory of violent crime corresponds with the economic crisis in 2008/09

Consultation on high frequency repeat victims in the Crime Survey - our response

The current methodology for handling repeat victimisation in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) is capping. Repeat victimisations for any series of crimes are capped at maximum of 5 crimes before the data is used to produce crime rate estimates for England and Wales. The new proposals merely shift the level of this cap. Capping produces inaccurate estimates of crime which are systematically biased in specific ways, no matter what level the cap is set at. It is possible to increase the accuracy of crime estimates from the CSEW by deriving them from all reported crimes, and without increasing volatility by utilising three-year rolling averages. A move away from capping to deriving crime estimates based on all reported crimes would increase: relevance, accuracy, clarity, coherence and comparability of crime statistics and would better conform to ONS quality principles. A capping methodology does not conform to these ONS quality principles

The decline in the rate of domestic violence has stopped: removing the cap on repeat victimisation reveals more violence

• The decline in the rate of domestic violence since the mid-1990s has stopped, although violent crime by other perpetrators is still falling • The most reliable data on domestic violence is from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), rather than police recorded crime since there is no statutory category of domestic violence • Official published CSEW data ‘caps’ the maximum number of incidents in a series at 5, so further recorded incidents are not included in official estimates• Analysis of CSEW finds that when the cap is removed there are 60% more violent crimes. • The increase due to removing the cap is concentrated on violent crime against women (70% increase) rather than men (50% increase) and on violent crime by domestic relations (70% increase) and acquaintances (100% increase) rather than by strangers (20% increase)

Growth or decline in the Church of England during the decade of Evangelism: did the Churchmanship of the Bishop matter?

The Decade of Evangelism occupied the attention of the Church of England throughout the 1990s. The present study employs the statistics routinely published by the Church of England in order to assess two matters: the extent to which these statistics suggest that the 43 individual dioceses finished the decade in a stronger or weaker position than they had entered it and the extent to which, according to these statistics, the performance of dioceses led by bishops shaped in the Evangelical tradition differed from the performance of dioceses led by bishops shaped in the Catholic tradition. The data demonstrated that the majority of dioceses were performing less effectively at the end of the decade than at the beginning, in terms of a range of membership statistics, and that the rate of decline varied considerably from one diocese to another. The only exception to the trend was provided by the diocese of London, which experienced some growth. The data also demonstrated that little depended on the churchmanship of the diocesan bishop in shaping diocesan outcomes on the performance indicators employed in the study

Design study of a novel regenerative pump using experimental and numerical techniques

This paper presents a numerical and experimental analysis of a new regenerative pump design. The complex flow-field within regenerative pumps represents a significant challenge to previous published mathematical models. The new pump design incorporates a new axial inlet and outlet port. The experimental and numerical results demonstrate that it is not only possible to resolve the flowfield for this pump type but also demonstrates this pump as a viable alternative to other kinetic rotodynamic machines. The use of the latest rapid manufacturing techniques have enabled the production of the complex geometry of the axial ports required for the new configuration

Observations of QSO J2233-606 in the Southern Hubble Deep Field

The Hubble Deep Field South (HDF-S) HST observations are expected to begin in October 1998. We present a composite spectrum of the QSO in the HDF-S field covering UV/optical/near IR wavelengths, obtained by combining data from the ANU 2.3m Telescope with STIS on the HST. This intermediate resolution spectrum covers the range 1600-10000A and allows us to derive some basic information on the intervening absorption systems which will be important in planning future higher resolution studies of this QSO.Comment: 9 pages and 2 figures, submitted to ApJ

Work-related psychological health and psychological type among lead elders within the Newfrontiers network of churches in the United Kingdom

Building on a series of recent studies concerned with assessing work-related psychological health and psychological type among various groups of church leaders, this study reports new data provided by 134 Lead Elders within the Newfrontiers network of churches in the United Kingdom who completed the Francis Psychological Type Scales (FPTS) together with the two scales of the Francis Burnout Inventory (FBI) concerned with emotional exhaustion and satisfaction in ministry. Compared with other groups of church leaders, Lead Elders within the Newfrontiers network of churches reported lower levels of emotional exhaustion and higher levels of satisfaction in ministry. Compared with other groups of church leaders, there was a higher proportion of extraverts among Lead Elders within the Newfrontiers network of churches. There was only a weak association between psychological type and burnout

Modeling Nonaxisymmetric Bow Shocks: Solution Method and Exact Analytic Solutions

A new solution method is presented for steady-state, momentum-conserving, non-axisymmetric bow shocks and colliding winds in the thin-shell limit. This is a generalization of previous formulations to include a density gradient in the pre-shock ambient medium, as well as anisotropy in the pre-shock wind. For cases where the wind is unaccelerated, the formalism yields exact, analytic solutions. Solutions are presented for two bow shock cases: (1) that due to a star moving supersonically with respect to an ambient medium with a density gradient perpendicular to the stellar velocity, and (2) that due to a star with a misaligned, axisymmetric wind moving in a uniform medium. It is also shown under quite general circumstances that the total rate of energy thermalization in the bow shock is independent of the details of the wind asymmetry, including the orientation of the non-axisymmetric driving wind, provided the wind is non-accelerating and point-symmetric. A typical feature of the solutions is that the region near the standoff point is tilted, so that the star does not lie along the bisector of a parabolic fit to the standoff region. The principal use of this work is to infer the origin of bow shock asymmetries, whether due to the wind or ambient medium, or both.Comment: 26 pages and 6 figures accepted to ap

Contacting the spirits of the dead: paranormal belief and the teenage worldview

A number of previous studies have examined both the overall level of belief expressed by young people in the paranormal and the major demographic predictors of such belief. Building on this research tradition, the present study examines how one specific paranormal belief concerning contact with the spirits of the dead integrates with the wider teenage worldview. Data provided by 33,982 pupils age 13 to 15 years throughout England and Wales demonstrated that almost one in three young people (31%) believed that it is possible to contact the spirits of the dead. Compared with young people who did not share this belief, the young people who believed in the possibility of contacting the spirits of the dead displayed lower psychological wellbeing, higher anxiety, greater isolation, greater alienation, less positive social attitudes, and less socially conforming lifestyles. Overall, paranormal beliefs seem to be associated with a less healthy worldview, in both personal and social terms

Coordinate Confusion in Conformal Cosmology

A straight-forward interpretation of standard Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) cosmologies is that objects move apart due to the expansion of space, and that sufficiently distant galaxies must be receding at velocities exceeding the speed of light. Recently, however, it has been suggested that a simple transformation into conformal coordinates can remove superluminal recession velocities, and hence the concept of the expansion of space should be abandoned. This work demonstrates that such conformal transformations do not eliminate superluminal recession velocities for open or flat matter-only FRLW cosmologies, and all possess superluminal expansion. Hence, the attack on the concept of the expansion of space based on this is poorly founded. This work concludes by emphasizing that the expansion of space is perfectly valid in the general relativistic framework, however, asking the question of whether space really expands is a futile exercise.Comment: 5 pages, accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter