Fast Bayesian experimental design: Laplace-based importance sampling for the expected information gain

In calculating expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design, the computation of the inner loop in the classical double-loop Monte Carlo requires a large number of samples and suffers from underflow if the number of samples is small. These drawbacks can be avoided by using an importance sampling approach. We present a computationally efficient method for optimal Bayesian experimental design that introduces importance sampling based on the Laplace method to the inner loop. We derive the optimal values for the method parameters in which the average computational cost is minimized according to the desired error tolerance. We use three numerical examples to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our method compared with the classical double-loop Monte Carlo, and a more recent single-loop Monte Carlo method that uses the Laplace method as an approximation of the return value of the inner loop. The first example is a scalar problem that is linear in the uncertain parameter. The second example is a nonlinear scalar problem. The third example deals with the optimal sensor placement for an electrical impedance tomography experiment to recover the fiber orientation in laminate composites.Comment: 42 pages, 35 figure

High-performance predictor for critical unstable generators based on scalable parallelized neural networks

A high-performance predictor for critical unstable generators (CUGs) of power systems is presented in this paper. The predictor is driven by the MapReduce based parallelized neural networks. Specifically, a group of back propagation neural networks (BPNNs), fed by massive response trajectories data, are efficiently organized and concurrently trained in Hadoop to identify dynamic behaviour of individual generator. Rather than simply classifying global stability of power systems, the presented approach is able to distinguish unstable generators accurately with a few cycles of synchronized trajectories after fault clearing, enabling more in-depth emergency awareness based on wide-area implementation. In addition, the technique is of rich scalability due to Hadoop framework, which can be deployed in the control centers as a high-performance computing infrastructure for real-time instability alert. Numerical examples are studied using NPCC 48 machines test system and a realistic power system of China

Observation of CR Anisotropy with ARGO-YBJ

The measurement of the anisotropies of cosmic ray arrival direction provides important informations on the propagation mechanisms and on the identification of their sources. In this paper we report the observation of anisotropy regions at different angular scales. In particular, the observation of a possible anisotropy on scales between $\sim$ 10 $^{\circ}$ and $\sim$ 30 $^{\circ}$ suggests the presence of unknown features of the magnetic fields the charged cosmic rays propagate through, as well as potential contributions of nearby sources to the total flux of cosmic rays. Evidence of new weaker few-degree excesses throughout the sky region $195^{\circ}\leq$ R.A. $\leq 315^{\circ}$ is reported for the first time.Comment: Talk given at 12th TAUP Conference 2011, 5-9 September 2011, Munich, German

Adenosine Kinase of T. b. rhodesiense Identified as the Putative Target of 4-[5-(4-phenoxyphenyl)-2H-pyrazol-3-yl]morpholine Using Chemical Proteomics

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), a devastating and fatal parasitic disease endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, urgently needs novel targets and efficacious chemotherapeutic agents. Recently, we discovered that 4-[5-(4-phenoxyphenyl)-2H-pyrazol-3-yl]morpholine exhibits specific antitrypanosomal activity toward T. b. rhodesiense, the causative agent of the acute form of HAT. Here we applied a chemical proteomics approach to find the cellular target of this compound. Adenosine kinase, a key enzyme of the parasite purine salvage pathway, was isolated and identified as compound binding partner. Direct binding assays using recombinant protein, and tests on an adenosine kinase knock-down mutant of the parasite produced by RNA interference confirmed TbrAK as the putative target. Kinetic analyses showed that the title compound is an activator of adenosine kinase and that the observed hyperactivation of TbrAK is due to the abolishment of the intrinsic substrate-inhibition. Whereas hyperactivation as a mechanism of action is well known from drugs targeting cell signaling, this is a novel and hitherto unexplored concept for compounds targeting metabolic enzymes, suggesting that hyperactivation of TbrAK may represent a novel therapeutic strategy for the development of trypanocides

Comparative analysis of carboxysome shell proteins

Carboxysomes are metabolic modules for CO2 fixation that are found in all cyanobacteria and some chemoautotrophic bacteria. They comprise a semi-permeable proteinaceous shell that encapsulates ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCO) and carbonic anhydrase. Structural studies are revealing the integral role of the shell protein paralogs to carboxysome form and function. The shell proteins are composed of two domain classes: those with the bacterial microcompartment (BMC; Pfam00936) domain, which oligomerize to form (pseudo)hexamers, and those with the CcmL/EutN (Pfam03319) domain which form pentamers in carboxysomes. These two shell protein types are proposed to be the basis for the carboxysome’s icosahedral geometry. The shell proteins are also thought to allow the flux of metabolites across the shell through the presence of the small pore formed by their hexameric/pentameric symmetry axes. In this review, we describe bioinformatic and structural analyses that highlight the important primary, tertiary, and quaternary structural features of these conserved shell subunits. In the future, further understanding of these molecular building blocks may provide the basis for enhancing CO2 fixation in other organisms or creating novel biological nanostructures

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008