Counterfactual thinking in cooperation dynamics

Counterfactual Thinking is a human cognitive ability studied in a wide variety of domains. It captures the process of reasoning about a past event that did not occur, namely what would have happened had this event occurred, or, otherwise, to reason about an event that did occur but what would ensue had it not. Given the wide cognitive empowerment of counterfactual reasoning in the human individual, the question arises of how the presence of individuals with this capability may improve cooperation in populations of self-regarding individuals. Here we propose a mathematical model, grounded on Evolutionary Game Theory, to examine the population dynamics emerging from the interplay between counterfactual thinking and social learning (i.e., individuals that learn from the actions and success of others) whenever the individuals in the population face a collective dilemma. Our results suggest that counterfactual reasoning fosters coordination in collective action problems occurring in large populations, and has a limited impact on cooperation dilemmas in which coordination is not required. Moreover, we show that a small prevalence of individuals resorting to counterfactual thinking is enough to nudge an entire population towards highly cooperative standards.Comment: 18 page

Things change: Women’s and men’s marital disruption dynamics in Italy during a time of social transformations, 1970-2003

We study women’s and men’s marital disruption in Italy between 1970 and 2003. By applying an event-history analysis to the 2003 Italian variant of the Generations and Gender Survey we found that the spread of marital disruption started among middle-highly educated women. Then in recent years it appears that less educated women have also been able to dissolve their unhappy unions. Overall we can see the beginning of a reversed educational gradient from positive to negative. In contrast the trend in men’s marital disruption risk appears as a change over time common to all educational groups, although with persisting educational differentials.determinants, educational differences, event history analysis, gender difference, Italy, marital disruption

Impact of HPV infection on the clinical outcome of p-CAIR trial in head and neck cancer

The purpose of the study was to analyse the influence of HPV infection on the outcome of a randomized clinical trial of conventional (CF) versus 7-days-a-week postoperative radiotherapy (p-CAIR) for squamous cell cancer of the head and neck (SCCHN). Between 2001 and 2004, 279 patients with high-risk SCC of the larynx or cancer of the oral cavity/oropharynx were randomized to receive 63 Gy in fractions of 1.8 Gy given 5 days a week or 7 days a week (Radiother Oncol 87:155–163, 2008). The presence of HPV DNA in 131 archival paraffin blocks was assessed with multiplex quantitative real-time PCR using five consensus primers for the conservative L1 region and molecular beacon probes targeting 14 high-risk HPV subtypes. Following the RT-PCR procedure, we could determine the presence and type of HPV16, HPV18 and the other 12 less frequent oncogenic subtypes. Out of 131 samples, 9 were positive for HPV infection (6.9%), all of them with HPV16 subtype. None of the 65 laryngeal tumours was HPV positive. The 5-year LRC in HPV-positive patients was 100%, compared to 58% in the HPV-negative group (p = 0.02, log-rank test). Amongst 122 patients with HPV-negative tumours, 5-year LRC was 50.3% in p-CF versus 65.2 in p-CAIR (p = 0.37). HPV infection was associated with low expression of EGFR and cyclin D. This study demonstrates a favourable outcome for HPV-positive patients with SCCHN treated with postoperative radiotherapy. While considering the small number of HPV+ tumours, the data set can be considered as hypothesis generating only, the outcome raises new questions on the necessity of aggressive postoperative treatment in HPV+ patients

An Analytical Model to Predict and Minimize the Residual Stress of Laser Cladding Process

Laser Cladding is one of the advanced thermal techniques used to repair or modify the surface properties of high value components such as tools, military and aerospace parts. Tensile residual stresses are formed in the thermally treated area of this process. This work focuses on to find out key factors of formation and minimization of tensile residual stresses in dissimilar materials. In order to predict the tensile residual stress, one dimensional analytical model has been adopted. Four cladding materials (Al2O3, TiC, TiO2, ZrO2) on the H13 tool steel substrate and a range of preheating temperature of the substrate, from 300K to 1200K, have been investigated. The thermal strain and Young’s modulus are found as key factors of formation and minimization of residual stresses. Additionally, the investigation of preheating temperature of the substrate showed the reduction of residual stress with increasing the preheating temperature of the substrate

E-cadherin and Cytokeratin Subtype Profiling in Effusion Cytology

Diagnostic utility of E-cadherin (E-CD) and cytokeratin (CK) subtype profiling in effusion cytology was investigated, employing immunocytochemistry on cellblock sections available from 211 metastatic carcinomas (MC), 6 mesotheliomas and 73 reactive mesothelial hyperplasias (MH). E-CD and monoclonal carcinoembryonic anti-gen (mCEA) stained 85% (120/141) and 65% (138/211) of MC, respectively. E-CD staining of MC was frequently heterogeneous (76/120) and absent in all anaplastic carcinomas (0/2). E-CD stained none (0/57) of MH while mCEA and epithelial membrane antigen (EMA) stained 12% (9/73) and 32% (16/32) of MH, respectively. Of 6 mesotheliomas, E-CD focally stained in 2 while mCEA stained none and EMA stained all. CK20 and CK17 stained none of MH or mesotheliomas. CK20 stained 15% of MC and CK 17 stained 22% of MC. CK5/6 and high molecular weight CK stained all mesotheliomas, 56% and 88% of MH, 26% and 39% of MC, respectively. MC showed predominant CK7+/20- expression, with the exceptions of MC from mucinous type of colon/rectum and ovary showing predominant CK20 positive. E-CD may be a useful positive marker for MC in effusion cytology, although it may focally stain in some mesotheliomas. Any positive staining for CK20 of MC suggests MC from the gastrointestinal tract or ovary among others

Application of Frequent Itemsets Mining to Analyze Patterns of One-Stop Visits in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: The free choice of health care facilities without limitations on frequency of visits within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan gives rise to not only a high number of annual ambulatory visits per capita but also a unique "one-stop shopping"phenomenon, which refers to a patient' visits to several specialties of the same healthcare facility in one day. The visits to multiple physicians would increase the potential risk of polypharmacy. The aim of this study was to analyze the frequency and patterns of one-stop visits in Taiwan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The claims datasets of 1 million nationally representative people within Taiwan's National Health Insurance in 2005 were used to calculate the number of patients with one-stop visits. The frequent itemsets mining was applied to compute the combination patterns of specialties in the one-stop visits. Among the total 13,682,469 ambulatory care visits in 2005, one-stop visits occurred 144,132 times and involved 296,822 visits (2.2% of all visits) by 66,294 (6.6%) persons. People tended to have this behavior with age and the percentage reached 27.5% (5,662 in 20,579) in the age group ≥80 years. In general, women were more likely to have one-stop visits than men (7.2% vs. 6.0%). Internal medicine plus ophthalmology was the most frequent combination with a visited frequency of 3,552 times (2.5%), followed by cardiology plus neurology with 3,183 times (2.2%). The most frequent three-specialty combination, cardiology plus neurology and gastroenterology, occurred only 111 times. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without the novel computational technique, it would be hardly possible to analyze the extremely diverse combination patterns of specialties in one-stop visits. The results of the study could provide useful information either for the hospital manager to set up integrated services or for the policymaker to rebuild the health care system

Distinct Origin of the Y and St Genome in Elymus Species: Evidence from the Analysis of a Large Sample of St Genome Species Using Two Nuclear Genes

Previous cytological and single copy nuclear genes data suggested the St and Y genome in the StY-genomic Elymus species originated from different donors: the St from a diploid species in Pseudoroegneria and the Y from an unknown diploid species, which are now extinct or undiscovered. However, ITS data suggested that the Y and St genome shared the same progenitor although rather few St genome species were studied. In a recent analysis of many samples of St genome species Pseudoroegneria spicata (Pursh) À. Löve suggested that one accession of P. spicata species was the most likely donor of the Y genome. The present study tested whether intraspecific variation during sampling could affect the outcome of analyses to determining the origin of Y genome in allotetraploid StY species. We also explored the evolutionary dynamics of these species.Two single copy nuclear genes, the second largest subunit of RNA polymerase II (RPB2) and the translation elongation factor G (EF-G) sequences from 58 accessions of Pseudoroegneria and Elymus species, together with those from Hordeum (H), Agropyron (P), Australopyrum (W), Lophopyrum (E(e)), Thinopyrum (E(a)), Thinopyrum (E(b)), and Dasypyrum (V) were analyzed using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Sequence comparisons among all these genomes revealed that the St and Y genomes are relatively dissimilar. Extensive sequence variations have been detected not only between the sequences from St and Y genome, but also among the sequences from diploid St genome species. Phylogenetic analyses separated the Y sequences from the St sequences.Our results confirmed that St and Y genome in Elymus species have originated from different donors, and demonstrated that intraspecific variation does not affect the identification of genome origin in polyploids. Moreover, sequence data showed evidence to support the suggestion of the genome convergent evolution in allopolyploid StY genome species

The Chinese version of the Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory-Revised scale: Replication and extension to non-clinical and clinical individuals with OCD symptoms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory-Revised (OCI-R) was designed to evaluate the severity of obsessive-compulsive symptoms in both clinical and non-clinical samples. The aim of the study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of a Chinese version of this scale.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Chinese version of the OCI-R was administered to both a non-clinical sample (209 undergraduate students) and a clinical sample (56 obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients). Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to examine the construct validity of the OCI-R in the non-clinical sample. The internal consistency at baseline and test-retest reliabilities at 4-week interval was examined in both the non-clinical and clinical samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The confirmatory factor analysis of the non-clinical sample confirmed a 6-factor model suggested by the original authors of the instrument (df = 120, RMSEA = 0.068, CFI = 0.88, NNFI = 0.85, GFI = 0.89). The internal consistency and test-retest reliability were at an acceptable range for both the non-clinical and clinical samples. The OCI-R also showed good clinical discrimination for patients with OCD from healthy controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The Chinese version of the OCI-R is a valid and reliable instrument for measuring OCD symptoms in the Chinese context.</p

A multi-perspective dynamic feature concept in adaptive NC machining of complex freeform surfaces

This paper presents a new concept of feature for freeform surface machining that defines the changes in feature status during real manufacturing situations which have not been sufficiently addressed by current international standards and previous research in feature technology. These changes are multi-perspective, including (i) changes in depth-of-cut: the geometry of a feature in the depth-of-cut direction changes during different machining operations such as roughing, semi-finishing and finishing; (ii) changes across the surface: a surface may be divided into different machining regions (effectively sub-features) for the selection of appropriate manufacturing methods for each region such as different cutting tools, parameters, set-ups or machine tools; and (iii) changes in resources or manufacturing capabilities may require the re-planning of depth-of-cuts, division of machining regions and manufacturing operations (machines, tools, set-ups and parameters). Adding the above dynamic information to the part information models in current CAD systems (which only represent the final state of parts) would significantly improve the accuracy, efficiency and timeliness of manufacturing planning and optimisation, especially for the integrated NC machining planning for complex freeform surfaces. A case study in an aircraft manufacturing company will be included in this paper