Modelling Competitive Sports: Bradley-Terry-Élő Models for Supervised and On-Line Learning of Paired Competition Outcomes

Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o} update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to improve upon, though in its original form it is a heuristic and not a proper statistical "model". Mathematically, the \'{E}l\H{o} rating system is very closely related to the Bradley-Terry models, which are usually used in an explanatory fashion rather than in a predictive supervised or on-line learning setting. Exploiting this close link between these two model classes and some newly observed similarities, we propose a new supervised learning framework with close similarities to logistic regression, low-rank matrix completion and neural networks. Building on it, we formulate a class of structured log-odds models, unifying the desirable properties found in the above: supervised probabilistic prediction of scores and wins/draws/losses, batch/epoch and on-line learning, as well as the possibility to incorporate features in the prediction, without having to sacrifice simplicity, parsimony of the Bradley-Terry models, or computational efficiency of \'{E}l\H{o}'s original approach. We validate the structured log-odds modelling approach in synthetic experiments and English Premier League outcomes, where the added expressivity yields the best predictions reported in the state-of-art, close to the quality of contemporary betting odds

Canevas de développement agile pour l'évolution fiable de systèmes logiciels à composants et orientés services

Modern software is characterized by a need for constant and rapid evolution, such as in the mobile domain. To facilitate the development and the rapid evolution of complex systems, software engineering approaches have been proposed, such as software architecture and agile software development. However, current solutions offer poor support to enable the development of a reliable system, i.e, allow its modification while ensuring its compliance with the quality of services requirement and its good overall safety. The contribution of this PhD thesis is CALICO, an agile development framework for the design and evolution of safe component-based and service-oriented software. The agile software development relies on an iterative and incremental development cycle that allows the architect to iterate between the design of the architecture and the debug of the software in its execution context. At each iteration, the architect can evolve its software and check the consistency of its evolution through the execution of static and dynamic analysis tools. Thus, during the design and the evolution of the system, architect can use a set of metamodels to specify the structure of the architecture and its various quality of services requirement. During the deployment, CALICO instantiates the system on the target runtime platform from the models specified and keeps them synchronized with the software during its execution. By this way, the architect still has a conceptual view which allows him to reason on the critical software properties during its evolution. Moreover, in order to check these evolutions, CALICO provides a unifying framework which allows reuse of many static analysis tools of software architectures and dynamic debugging tools, that were scattered in different existing platforms. Thus, each change can be statically analyzed on the conceptual view before being propagated to the software system. Dynamic analysis are based on data values only available during the execution. The capture of these values is done through automatic instrumentation of the software system. Globally, CALICO enables reliable evolution even if the underlying platforms does not natively provide this support. Our contribution is concretized by a multi-platform implementation. The current version handles four component-based and service-oriented platforms. Moreover, the benchmarks that we have performed show that CALICO is usable for the design and development of safe applications up to 10,000 components and services, which corresponds to the maximal load of most runtime platforms.Les systèmes logiciels modernes se caractérisent par un besoin d'évolutions perpétuelles et rapides, comme par exemple dans le monde de l'informatique mobile. Pour faciliter le développe\-ment et l'évolution rapide de systèmes complexes, des approches de génie logiciel ont été proposées, telles que les architectures logicielles et la méthode de conception agile. Néanmoins, les solutions actuelles offrent peu de support pour permettre l'évolution fiable d'un système, c'est-à-dire permettre sa modification tout en garantissant le respect de ses exigences de qualités de service et de bon fonctionnement global. La contribution de cette thèse est CALICO, un canevas de développement agile pour la conception et l'évolution fiable de systèmes logiciels à composants et orientés services. Le développement agile repose sur l'utilisation d'un cycle de développement itératif et incrémental qui permet à l'architecte d'itérer entre les étapes de conception de l'architecture et de débogage du logiciel dans son environnement d'exécution. A chaque itération du cycle, l'architecte peut faire évoluer son logiciel et fiabiliser ses évolutions grâce à l'exécution d'analyses statiques et dynamiques complémentaires. Ainsi, lors de la conception et de l'évolution d'un système, l'architecte dispose d'un ensemble de métamodèles pour spécifier la structure de l'architecture de son logiciel et ses diverses exigences de qualité de services. Lors du déploiement, CALICO utilise les modèles spécifiés pour instancier le système sur la plate-forme d'exécution cible et les garde synchronisés avec le logiciel lors de son exécution. De cette façon, l'architecte dispose toujours d'une vue conceptuelle qui lui permet de raisonner sur les propriétés critiques de son logiciel lors d'une évolution. De plus, pour fiabiliser ces évolutions, CALICO offre un cadre fédérateur qui autorise la réutilisation de nombreux outils d'analyse statique des architectures logicielles et de débogage dynamique qui étaient jusqu'alors dispersés dans différentes plates-formes existantes. Ainsi, chaque évolution peut être analysée statiquement sur la vue conceptuelle avant d'être propagée au système logiciel. Les analyses dynamiques reposent quant à elles sur des valeurs disponibles à l'exécution. La capture de ces valeurs est effectuée grâce à une instrumentation automatique du système logiciel. CALICO permet donc de fiabiliser les évolutions même si les plates-formes d'exécution sous-jacentes ne le proposent pas nativement. Notre contribution se concrétise par une implémentation multi plates-formes. La version actuelle prend en charge quatre plates-formes à composants et une plate-forme à services. Par ailleurs, les tests de performances que nous avons réalisés démontrent que CALICO est utilisable pour la conception et l'évolution fiable de larges applications jusqu'à 10000 composants et services, ce qui correspond à la montée en charge maximale de la plupart des plates-formes d'exécution

Uniform electroactive fiber-like micelle nanowires for organic electronics

AbstractMicelles formed by the self-assembly of block copolymers in selective solvents have attracted widespread attention and have uses in a wide variety of fields, whereas applications based on their electronic properties are virtually unexplored. Herein we describe studies of solution-processable, low-dispersity, electroactive fibre-like micelles of controlled length from π-conjugated diblock copolymers containing a crystalline regioregular poly(3-hexylthiophene) core and a solubilizing, amorphous regiosymmetric poly(3-hexylthiophene) or polystyrene corona. Tunnelling atomic force microscopy measurements demonstrate that the individual fibres exhibit appreciable conductivity. The fibres were subsequently incorporated as the active layer in field-effect transistors. The resulting charge carrier mobility strongly depends on both the degree of polymerization of the core-forming block and the fibre length, and is independent of corona composition. The use of uniform, colloidally stable electroactive fibre-like micelles based on common π-conjugated block copolymers highlights their significant potential to provide fundamental insight into charge carrier processes in devices, and to enable future electronic applications.</jats:p

Discovery (theoretical prediction and experimental observation) of a large-gap topological-insulator class with spin-polarized single-Dirac-cone on the surface

Recent theories and experiments have suggested that strong spin-orbit coupling effects in certain band insulators can give rise to a new phase of quantum matter, the so-called topological insulator, which can show macroscopic entanglement effects. Such systems feature two-dimensional surface states whose electrodynamic properties are described not by the conventional Maxwell equations but rather by an attached axion field, originally proposed to describe strongly interacting particles. It has been proposed that a topological insulator with a single spin-textured Dirac cone interfaced with a superconductor can form the most elementary unit for performing fault-tolerant quantum computation. Here we present an angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy study and first-principle theoretical calculation-predictions that reveal the first observation of such a topological state of matter featuring a single-surface-Dirac-cone realized in the naturally occurring Bi$_2$Se$_3$ class of materials. Our results, supported by our theoretical predictions and calculations, demonstrate that undoped compound of this class of materials can serve as the parent matrix compound for the long-sought topological device where in-plane surface carrier transport would have a purely quantum topological origin. Our study further suggests that the undoped compound reached via n-to-p doping should show topological transport phenomena even at room temperature.Comment: 3 Figures, 18 pages, Submitted to NATURE PHYSICS in December 200

Extending the rapeseed gene pool with resynthesized Brassica napus II: Heterosis

Hybrid breeding relies on the combination of parents from two differing heterotic groups. However, the genetic diversity in adapted oilseed rape breeding material is rather limited. Therefore, the use of resynthesized Brassica napus as a distant gene pool was investigated. Hybrids were derived from crosses between 44 resynthesized lines with a diverse genetic background and two male sterile winter oilseed rape tester lines. The hybrids were evaluated together with their parents and check cultivars in 2 years and five locations in Germany. Yield, plant height, seed oil, and protein content were monitored, and genetic distances were estimated with molecular markers (127 polymorphic RFLP fragments). Resynthesized lines varied in yield between 40.9 dt/ha and 21.5 dt/ha, or between 85.1 and 44.6% of check cultivar yields. Relative to check cultivars, hybrids varied from 91.6 to 116.6% in yield and from 94.5 to 103.3% in seed oil content. Mid-parent heterosis varied from −3.5 to 47.2% for yield. The genetic distance of parental lines was not significantly correlated with heterosis or hybrid yield. Although resynthesized lines do not meet the elite rapeseed standards, they are a valuable source for hybrid breeding due to their large distance from present breeding material and their high heterosis when combined with European winter oilseed rape

Distribution and biological role of the oligopeptide-binding protein (OppA) in Xanthomonas species

In this study we investigated the prevalence of the oppA gene, encoding the oligopeptide binding protein (OppA) of the major bacterial oligopeptide uptake system (Opp), in different species of the genus Xanthomonas. The oppA gene was detected in two Xanthomonas axonopodis strains among eight tested Xanthomonas species. The generation of an isogenic oppA-knockout derivative of the Xac 306 strain, showed that the OppA protein neither plays a relevant role in oligopeptide uptake nor contributes to the infectivity and multiplication of the bacterial strain in leaves of sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) and Rangpur lime (Citrus limonia). Taken together these results suggest that the oppA gene has a recent evolutionary history in the genus and does not contribute in the physiology or pathogenesis of X. axonopodis

Smoking among Young Rural to Urban Migrant Women in China: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Rural-to-urban migrant women may be vulnerable to smoking initiation as they are newly exposed to risk factors in the urban environment. We sought to identify correlates of smoking among rural-to-urban migrant women in China.A cross-sectional survey of rural-to-urban migrant women working in restaurants and hotels (RHW) and those working as commercial sex workers (CSW) was conducted in ten provincial capital cities in China. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to identify correlates of smoking. We enrolled 2229 rural-to-urban migrant women (1697 RHWs aged 18–24 years and 532 CSWs aged 18–30 years). Of these, 18.4% RHWs and 58.3% CSWs reported ever tried smoking and 3.2% RHWs and 41.9% CSWs reported current smoking. Participants who first tried smoking after moving to the city were more likely to be current smokers compared to participants who first tried smoking before moving to the city (25.3% vs. 13.8% among RHWs, p = 0.02; 83.6% vs. 58.6% among CSWs, p = <0.01). Adjusting for other factors, “tried female cigarette brands” had the strongest association with current smoking (OR 5.69, 95%CI 3.44 to 9.41) among participants who had ever tried smoking.Exposure to female cigarette brands may increase the susceptibility to smoking among rural-to-urban migrant women. Smoke-free policies and increased taxes may be effective in preventing rural-to-urban migrant women from smoking initiation

Bistability, Probability Transition Rate and First-Passage Time in an Autoactivating Positive-Feedback Loop

A hallmark of positive-feedback regulation is bistability, which gives rise to distinct cellular states with high and low expression levels, and that stochasticity in gene expression can cause random transitions between two states, yielding bimodal population distribution (Kaern et al., 2005, Nat Rev Genet 6: 451-464). In this paper, the probability transition rate and first-passage time in an autoactivating positive-feedback loop with bistability are investigated, where the gene expression is assumed to be disturbed by both additive and multiplicative external noises, the bimodality in the stochastic gene expression is due to the bistability, and the bistability determines that the potential of the Fokker-Planck equation has two potential wells. Our main goal is to illustrate how the probability transition rate and first-passage time are affected by the maximum transcriptional rate, the intensities of additive and multiplicative noises, and the correlation of additive and multiplicative noises. Our main results show that (i) the increase of the maximum transcription rate will be useful for maintaining a high gene expression level; (ii) the probability transition rate from one potential well to the other one will increase with the increase of the intensity of additive noise; (iii) the increase of multiplicative noise strength will increase the amount of probability in the left potential well; and (iv) positive (or negative) cross-correlation between additive and multiplicative noises will increase the amount of probability in the left (or right) potential well

Comparing Monofractal and Multifractal Analysis of Corrosion Damage Evolution in Reinforcing Bars

Based on fractal theory and damage mechanics, the aim of this paper is to describe the monofractal and multifractal characteristics of corrosion morphology and develop a new approach to characterize the nonuniform corrosion degree of reinforcing bars. The relationship between fractal parameters and tensile strength of reinforcing bars are discussed. The results showed that corrosion mass loss ratio of a bar cannot accurately reflect the damage degree of the bar. The corrosion morphology of reinforcing bars exhibits both monofractal and multifractal features. The fractal dimension and the tensile strength of corroded steel bars exhibit a power function relationship, while the width of multifractal spectrum and tensile strength of corroded steel bars exhibit a linear relationship. By comparison, using width of multifractal spectrum as multifractal damage variable not only reflects the distribution of corrosion damage in reinforcing bars, but also reveals the influence of nonuniform corrosion on the mechanical properties of reinforcing bars. The present research provides a new approach for the establishment of corrosion damage constitutive models of reinforcing bars