Bifurcations in synergistic epidemics on random regular graphs

The role of cooperative effects (i.e. synergy) in transmission of infection is investigated analytically and numerically for epidemics following the rules of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model defined on random regular graphs. Non-linear dynamics are shown to lead to bifurcation diagrams for such spreading phenomena exhibiting three distinct regimes: non-active, active and bi-stable. The dependence of bifurcation loci on node degree is studied and interesting effects are found that contrast with the behaviour expected for non-synergistic epidemics.FJPR acknowledges financial support from the Carnegie Trust

Modelling avalanches in martensites

Solids subject to continuous changes of temperature or mechanical load often exhibit discontinuous avalanche-like responses. For instance, avalanche dynamics have been observed during plastic deformation, fracture, domain switching in ferroic materials or martensitic transformations. The statistical analysis of avalanches reveals a very complex scenario with a distinctive lack of characteristic scales. Much effort has been devoted in the last decades to understand the origin and ubiquity of scale-free behaviour in solids and many other systems. This chapter reviews some efforts to understand the characteristics of avalanches in martensites through mathematical modelling.Comment: Chapter in the book "Avalanches in Functional Materials and Geophysics", edited by E. K. H. Salje, A. Saxena, and A. Planes. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45612-6_

Explosive Contagion in Networks.

The spread of social phenomena such as behaviors, ideas or products is an ubiquitous but remarkably complex phenomenon. A successful avenue to study the spread of social phenomena relies on epidemic models by establishing analogies between the transmission of social phenomena and infectious diseases. Such models typically assume simple social interactions restricted to pairs of individuals; effects of the context are often neglected. Here we show that local synergistic effects associated with acquaintances of pairs of individuals can have striking consequences on the spread of social phenomena at large scales. The most interesting predictions are found for a scenario in which the contagion ability of a spreader decreases with the number of ignorant individuals surrounding the target ignorant. This mechanism mimics ubiquitous situations in which the willingness of individuals to adopt a new product depends not only on the intrinsic value of the product but also on whether his acquaintances will adopt this product or not. In these situations, we show that the typically smooth (second order) transitions towards large social contagion become explosive (first order). The proposed synergistic mechanisms therefore explain why ideas, rumours or products can suddenly and sometimes unexpectedly catch on

Estimating the delay between host infection and disease (incubation period) and assessing its significance to the epidemiology of plant diseases.

Knowledge of the incubation period of infectious diseases (time between host infection and expression of disease symptoms) is crucial to our epidemiological understanding and the design of appropriate prevention and control policies. Plant diseases cause substantial damage to agricultural and arboricultural systems, but there is still very little information about how the incubation period varies within host populations. In this paper, we focus on the incubation period of soilborne plant pathogens, which are difficult to detect as they spread and infect the hosts underground and above-ground symptoms occur considerably later. We conducted experiments on Rhizoctonia solani in sugar beet, as an example patho-system, and used modelling approaches to estimate the incubation period distribution and demonstrate the impact of differing estimations on our epidemiological understanding of plant diseases. We present measurements of the incubation period obtained in field conditions, fit alternative probability models to the data, and show that the incubation period distribution changes with host age. By simulating spatially-explicit epidemiological models with different incubation-period distributions, we study the conditions for a significant time lag between epidemics of cryptic infection and the associated epidemics of symptomatic disease. We examine the sensitivity of this lag to differing distributional assumptions about the incubation period (i.e. exponential versus Gamma). We demonstrate that accurate information about the incubation period distribution of a pathosystem can be critical in assessing the true scale of pathogen invasion behind early disease symptoms in the field; likewise, it can be central to model-based prediction of epidemic risk and evaluation of disease management strategies. Our results highlight that reliance on observation of disease symptoms can cause significant delay in detection of soil-borne pathogen epidemics and mislead practitioners and epidemiologists about the timing, extent, and viability of disease control measures for limiting economic loss.ML thanks the Institut Technique français de la Betterave industrielle (ITB) for funding this project. CAG and JANF were funded by the UK’s Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Phenomenology of ultrafine particle concentrations and size distribution across urban Europe

The 2017-2019 hourly particle number size distributions (PNSD) from 26 sites in Europe and 1 in the US were evaluated focusing on 16 urban background (UB) and 6 traffic (TR) sites in the framework of Research Infrastructures services reinforcing air quality monitoring capacities in European URBAN & industrial areaS (RI-URBANS) project. The main objective was to describe the phenomenology of urban ultrafine particles (UFP) in Europe with a significant air quality focus. The varying lower size detection limits made it difficult to compare PN concentrations (PNC), particularly PN10-25, from different cities. PNCs follow a TR > UB > Suburban (SUB) order. PNC and Black Carbon (BC) progressively increase from Northern Europe to Southern Europe and from Western to Eastern Europe. At the UB sites, typical traffic rush hour PNC peaks are evident, many also showing midday-morning PNC peaks anti-correlated with BC. These peaks result from increased PN10-25, suggesting significant PNC contributions from nucleation, fumigation and shipping. Site types to be identified by daily and seasonal PNC and BC patterns are: (i) PNC mainly driven by traffic emissions, with marked correlations with BC on different time scales; (ii) marked midday/morning PNC peaks and a seasonal anti-correlation with PNC/BC; (iii) both traffic peaks and midday peaks without marked seasonal patterns. Groups (ii) and (iii) included cities with high insolation. PNC, especially PN25-800, was positively correlated with BC, NO2, CO and PM for several sites. The variable correlation of PNSD with different urban pollutants demonstrates that these do not reflect the variability of UFP in urban environments. Specific monitoring of PNSD is needed if nanoparticles and their associated health impacts are to be assessed. Implementation of the CEN-ACTRIS recommendations for PNSD measurements would provide comparable measurements, and measurements of <10 nm PNC are needed for full evaluation of the health effects of this size fraction

Spreading to localized targets in complex networks.

As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.We thank an anonymous reviewer for helpful suggestions which improve this paper. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos 61603046 and 11547188), Natural Science Foundation of Beijing (No. 16L00077) and the Young Scholar Program of Beijing Normal University (No. 2014NT38)

Bifurcations in synergistic epidemics on random regular graphs

The role of cooperative effects (i.e. synergy) in transmission of infection is investigated analytically and numerically for epidemics following the rules of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model defined on random regular graphs. Non-linear dynamics are shown to lead to bifurcation diagrams for such spreading phenomena exhibiting three distinct regimes: non-active, active and bi-stable. The dependence of bifurcation loci on node degree is studied and interesting effects are found that contrast with the behaviour expected for non-synergistic epidemics.FJPR acknowledges financial support from the Carnegie Trust

Retention Site Contribution Toward Silver Particle Immobilization in Porous Media

This work investigates the role that pore structure plays in colloid retention across scales with a novel methodology based on image analysis. Experiments were designed to quantify–with robust statistics–the contribution from commonly proposed retention sites toward colloid immobilization. Specific retention sites include solid-water interface, air-water interface, air-water-solid triple point, grain-to-grain contacts, and thin films. Variable conditions for pore-water content, velocity, and chemistry were tested in a model glass bead porous medium with silver microspheres. Concentration signals from effluent breakthrough and spatial profiles of retained particles from micro X-ray Computed Tomography were used to compute mass balances and enumerate pore-scale regions of interest in three dimensions. At the Darcy-scale, retained colloids follow non-monotonic deposition profiles, which implicates effects from flow-stagnation zones. The spatial distribution of immobilized colloids along the porous medium depth was analyzed by retention site, revealing depth-independent partitioning of colloids. At the pore-scale, dominance and overall saturation of all retention sites considered indicated that the solid-water&nbsp;interface and wedge-shaped regions associated with flow-stagnation (grain-to-grain contacts in saturated and air-water-solid triple points in unsaturated conditions) are the greatest contributors toward retention under the tested conditions. At the interface-scale, xDLVO energy profiles were in agreement with pore-scale observations. Our calculations suggest favorable interactions for colloids and solid-water interfaces and for weak flocculation (e.g., at flow-stagnation zones), but unfavorable interactions between colloids and air-water interfaces. Overall, we demonstrate that pore-structure plays a critical role in colloid immobilization and that Darcy-, pore- and interface-scales are consistent when the pore structure is taken into account

Flow Path Resistance in Heterogeneous Porous Media Recast into a Graph-Theory Problem

Abstract: This work aims to describe the spatial distribution of flow from characteristics of the underlying pore structure in heterogeneous porous media. Thousands of two-dimensional samples of polydispersed granular media are used to (1) obtain the velocity field via direct numerical simulations, and (2) conceptualize the pore network as a graph in each sample. Analysis of the flow field allows us to distinguish preferential from stagnant flow regions and to quantify how channelized the flow is. Then, the graph’s edges are weighted by geometric attributes of their corresponding pores to find the path of minimum resistance of each sample. Overlap between the preferential flow paths and the predicted minimum resistance path determines the accuracy in individual samples. An evolutionary algorithm is employed to determine the “fittest” weighting scheme (here, the channel’s arc length to pore throat ratio) that maximizes accuracy across the entire dataset while minimizing over-parameterization. Finally, the structural similarity of neighboring edges is analyzed to explain the spatial arrangement of preferential flow within the pore network. We find that connected edges within the preferential flow subnetwork are highly similar, while those within the stagnant flow subnetwork are dissimilar. The contrast in similarity between these regions increases with flow channelization, explaining the structural constraints to local flow. The proposed framework may be used for fast characterization of porous media heterogeneity relative to computationally expensive direct numerical simulations. Article Highlights: 1.A quantitative assessment of flow channeling is proposed that distinguishes pore-scale flow fields into preferential and stagnant flow regions.2.Geometry and topology of the pore network are used to predict the spatial distribution of fast flow paths from structural data alone.3.Local disorder of pore networks provides structural constraints for flow separation into preferential v stagnant regions and informs on their velocity contrast