MORE CARE Overview

International audienceThis paper provides an overview of MORE CARE, a European R&D project financed within the 5th Framework Energy Programme. This project has as main objective the development of an advanced control software system, aiming to optimize the overall performance of isolated and weakly interconnected systems in liberalized market environments by increasing the share of wind energy and other renewable forms, including advanced on-line security functions. The main features of the control system comprise advanced software modules for load and wind power forecasting, unit commitment and economic dispatch of the conventional and renewable units and on-line security assessment capabilities integrated in a friendly Man-Machine environment. Pilot installations of advanced control functions are foreseen on the islands of Crete, Ireland and Madeira

Inorganic and organic geochemical fingerprinting of sediment sources and ocean circulation on a complex continental margin (São Paulo Bight, Brazil)

In this study, we use inorganic (metal) and organic (bulk and molecular) markers in sediment samples of the south-eastern Brazilian margin to investigate the response of geochemical fingerprints to the complex hydrodynamic processes present in the area. Results indicate the potential of export of terrigenous siliciclastic and organic constituents to the upper slope, even in an area with limited fluvial supply. Metal contents and especially the ln(Ti = Al) and ln(Fe = K) ratios make it possible to recognise the extension of shelf sediments toward the upper slope. Potassium, here expressedas ln(K = Sc) and ln(K = Al) ratios used as proxies of illite–kaolinite variations, proved to be an important parameter, especially because it allowed us to decipher the imprint of the northward flow of the Intermediate Western Boundary Current (IWBC) in comparison to the southward flows of the Brazil Current (BC) and Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Using organic matter analyses, we were able to evaluate the extent of terrestrial contributions to the outer shelf and slope, even without the presence of significant fluvial input. In addition, molecular markers signify a slight increase in the input of C4-derived plants to the slope sediments, transported from distant areas by the main alongshore boundary currents, indicating that the terrestrial fraction of the organic matter deposited on the slope has a distinct origin when compared to shelf sediments

A search for point sources of EeV photons

Measurements of air showers made using the hybrid technique developed with the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory allow a sensitive search for point sources of EeV photons anywhere in the exposed sky. A multivariate analysis reduces the background of hadronic cosmic rays. The search is sensitive to a declination band from -85{\deg} to +20{\deg}, in an energy range from 10^17.3 eV to 10^18.5 eV. No photon point source has been detected. An upper limit on the photon flux has been derived for every direction. The mean value of the energy flux limit that results from this, assuming a photon spectral index of -2, is 0.06 eV cm^-2 s^-1, and no celestial direction exceeds 0.25 eV cm^-2 s^-1. These upper limits constrain scenarios in which EeV cosmic ray protons are emitted by non-transient sources in the Galaxy.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Reconstruction of inclined air showers detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

We describe the method devised to reconstruct inclined cosmic-ray air showers with zenith angles greater than $60^\circ$ detected with the surface array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The measured signals at the ground level are fitted to muon density distributions predicted with atmospheric cascade models to obtain the relative shower size as an overall normalization parameter. The method is evaluated using simulated showers to test its performance. The energy of the cosmic rays is calibrated using a sub-sample of events reconstructed with both the fluorescence and surface array techniques. The reconstruction method described here provides the basis of complementary analyses including an independent measurement of the energy spectrum of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using very inclined events collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 27 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics (JCAP

Economic and climatic models for estimating coffee supply

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a oferta cafeeira por meio da calibração de modelos estatísticos, com variáveis econômicas e climáticas, das principais regiões produtoras do Estado de São Paulo. As regiões estudadas foram Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa e Osvaldo Cruz. Foram utilizados dados de oferta cafeeira, variáveis econômicas (crédito rural, crédito rural na agricultura e valor da produção) e variáveis climáticas (temperatura do ar, precipitação pluvial, evapotranspiração potencial, deficiência e excedente hídrico) de cada região, para o período de 2000–2014. Os modelos foram calibrados com uso de técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, e todas as combinações possíveis foram testadas para a seleção das variáveis. A oferta cafeeira foi a variável dependente, e as demais, as independentes. A acurácia e a precisão dos modelos foram analisadas pelo erro percentual médio e pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, respectivamente. As variáveis que mais influenciam a oferta cafeeira são o valor de produção e a temperatura do ar. É possível estimar a oferta cafeeira com regressões lineares múltiplas por meio de variáveis econômicas e elementos climáticos. Os modelos mais acurados são os calibrados para estimar a oferta cafeeira das regiões de Cássia dos Coqueiros e Osvaldo Cruz.The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000–2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO