Reducing volatility due to natural gas exports: Is the answer a stabilization fund?

An important part of Bolivia’s fiscal revenues are directly tied to world oil prices. Since oil prices are very volatile, so are Bolivia’s fiscal revenues. For example, if oil prices vary as much during the next couple of decades as they did during the previous two decades, then the fiscal revenues arising from our exports of natural gas to Brazil would vary between US$141 million per year and US$ 1.1 billion per year, and the revenues in any particular year would be largely unpredictable. Such volatility of fiscal revenues is undesirable, especially for a country that tries to implement a poverty reduction strategy requiring a steady and predictable flow of funds. This paper calculates the likely range values for the revenues that Bolivia will derive from natural gas exports, as well as the likely variation from year to year. Based on these calculations we design a Stabilization Fund, which accumulates money when world oil prices are high and distributes money when oil prices are low. The effect of oil price volatility on the Bolivian economy is evaluated in a CGE model and the advantages and disadvantages of a Stabilization Fund are analyzed

Natural gas and income distribution in Bolivia

The increase in natural gas sales to Brazil in the coming years will bring about substantial changes in the Bolivian economy. In this paper, we use a general equilibrium model to simulate the changes that will occur in the Bolivian economy and will consider the distributional impacts that are likely to arise from these economic changes

Natural Gas and Inequality in Bolivia after Nationalization

The high oil prices and the sharp increases in royalties mean that the natural gas boom in Bolivia has become very important for the economy. This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of this boom on key macroeconomic variables as well as the distribution of incomes in the society. From a macroeconomic perspective, the natural gas boom is a blessing, adding around 1 percentage point to GDP growth rates for at least a decade, and sharply increasing government revenues available for public spending and investment. However, the poorest segments of the population (rural small-holders and urban informals) suffer actual reductions in their real incomes, compared to the counterfactual scenario without the gas boom. This means that the natural gas boom not only causes an increase in inequality but also an increase in poverty. The paper finishes with some policy recommendations on how to counteract the negative side effects of the natural gas boom.Natural Gas, Inequality, CGE model, Bolivia

Gas Natural y Desigualdad en Bolivia Después de la Nacionalización

Los precios altos del petróleo y el significativo incremento de los ingresos públicos provenientes de su explotación han implicado que el gas natural se vuelva muy importante para la economía boliviana. Este trabajo utiliza un modelo de Equilibrio General Computarizado (EGC) para evaluar los impactos de este boom sobre las variables macroeconómicas claves así como respecto de la distribución de ingresos en la sociedad. Desde una perspectiva macroeconómica, el boom del gas natural parece ser una bendición, pues podría elevar en cerca de un punto porcentual las tasas de crecimiento del PIB durante por lo menos una década, incrementando vigorosamente los ingresos del gobierno para realizar gastos e inversiones públicas. Sin embargo, los segmentos más pobres de la población (pequeños agricultores e informales urbanos) podrían verse seriamente afectados, sufriendo reducciones en sus ingresos reales en comparación con el escenario opuesto, es decir, sin el boom del gas. Esto quiere decir que el boom del gas natural no sólo podría causar un aumento en la desigualdad sino también una expansión de la pobreza. Este trabajo termina con algunas recomendaciones en cuanto a políticas que sugieren cómo contrarestar los efectos secundarios negativos del boom de gas natural.Gas Natural, Desigualdad, modelo EGC, Bolivia

Avenues of future research in homotransplantation of the liver with particular reference to hepatic supportive procedures, antilymphocyte serum, and tissue typing

Three general areas of research which bear on the developing field of liver transplantation are reviewed. These are: (1) the prospects of obtaining better immunosuppression with particular reference to heterologous antilymphocyte serum; (2) the possible use of antigen matching technics as an advanced indicator of donorrecipient histocompatibility; (3) a simlified system of extracorporeal transplntation designed to provide teporary hepatic support. © 1966

Feasibility and acceptability of text messaging to support antenatal healthcare in Iraqi pregnant women: a pilot study

Objective: To determine the feasibility and acceptability of mobile health technology and its potential to improve antenatal care (ANC) services in Iraq. Methods: This was a controlled experimental study conducted at primary health care centers. One hundred pregnant women who attended those centres for ANC were exposed to weekly text messages varying in content, depending on the week of gestation, while 150 women were recruited for the unexposed group. The number of ANC visits in the intervention and control groups, was the main outcome measure. The Mann-Whitney test and the Poisson regression model were the two main statistical tests used. Results: More than 85% of recipients were in agreement with the following statements: “the client recommends this program for other pregnant women”, “personal rating for the message as a whole” and “obtained benefit from the messages”. There was a statistically significant increase in the median number of antenatal clinic visits from two to four per pregnancy, in addition to being relatively of low cost, and could be provided for a larger population with not much difference in the efforts. Conclusions: Text messaging is feasible, low cost and reasonably acceptable to Iraqi pregnant women, and encourages their ANC visits

Peer Smoking, Other Peer Attributes, and Adolescent Cigarette Smoking: A Social Network Analysis

Peer attributes other than smoking have received little attention in the research on adolescent smoking, even though the developmental literature suggests the importance of multiple dimensions of adolescent friendships and peer relations. Social network analysis was used to measure the structure of peer relations (i.e., indicators of having friends, friendship quality, and status among peers) and peer smoking (i.e., friend and school smoking). We used three-level hierarchical growth models to examine the contribution of each time varying peer variable to individual trajectories of smoking from age 11 to 17 while controlling for the other variables and we tested interactions between the peer structure and peer smoking variables. Data were collected over five waves of assessment from a longitudinal sample of 6,579 students in three school districts. Findings suggest a greater complexity in the peer context of smoking than previously recognized

The Social Ecology of Adolescent Alcohol Misuse

A conceptual framework based on social ecology, social learning, and social control theories guided identification of social contexts, contextual attributes, and joint effects that contribute to development of adolescent alcohol misuse. Modeling of alcohol use, suggested by social learning theory, and indicators of the social bond, suggested by social control theory, were examined in the family, peer, school, and neighborhood contexts. Interactions between alcohol modeling and social bond indicators were tested within and between contexts. Data were from a longitudinal study of 6,544 students, 1,663 of their parents, and the U.S. Census. All contexts were uniquely implicated in development of alcohol misuse from ages 11 through 17 years and most alcohol modeling effects were contingent on attributes of social bonds

Fairy tale tourism: the architectural projection mapping of magically real and irreal festival lightscapes

This paper explores how established light festivals such as the Fête des Lumières in Lyon and Lumiere in Durham were first conceived by Robert-Houdin as illusory illuminations in the Loire in the 1950s. The research investigates the concept of spectacles as inversions of reality; re-situating light works within authenticity theory by exploring their manipulation of magical reality and irreality. The research uses the authors’ experience of event design to assess different interactions of light with the tri-dimensional architectural canvas, suggesting three classifications of animated projection mapping events: architecturally passive, architecturally physically active and architecturally metaphysically active. Each category has implications for how spectators perceive these installations. Architecturally passive events may use fairy tale content, evoking atavistic and affective responses, the ‘skinning’ of buildings with magical reality is designed to evoke perceptual duality, and the wobbling unfolding of irreality may ultimately create a state of ‘illuminated flow.

New broad-spectrum resistance to septoria tritici blotch derived from synthetic hexaploid wheat

Septoria tritici blotch (STB), caused by the ascomycete Mycosphaerella graminicola, is one of the most devastating foliar diseases of wheat. We screened five synthetic hexaploid wheats (SHs), 13 wheat varieties that represent the differential set of cultivars and two susceptible checks with a global set of 20 isolates and discovered exceptionally broad STB resistance in SHs. Subsequent development and analyses of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between the SH M3 and the highly susceptible bread wheat cv. Kulm revealed two novel resistance loci on chromosomes 3D and 5A. The 3D resistance was expressed in the seedling and adult plant stages, and it controlled necrosis (N) and pycnidia (P) development as well as the latency periods of these parameters. This locus, which is closely linked to the microsatellite marker Xgwm494, was tentatively designated Stb16q and explained from 41 to 71% of the phenotypic variation at seedling stage and 28–31% in mature plants. The resistance locus on chromosome 5A was specifically expressed in the adult plant stage, associated with SSR marker Xhbg247, explained 12–32% of the variation in disease, was designated Stb17, and is the first unambiguously identified and named QTL for adult plant resistance to M. graminicola. Our results confirm that common wheat progenitors might be a rich source of new Stb resistance genes/QTLs that can be deployed in commercial breeding programs