Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and the risk of stroke in the Netherlands:A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Apart from blood pressure level itself, variation in blood pressure has been implicated in the development of stroke in subgroups at high cardiovascular risk. We determined the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and stroke risk in the general population, taking into account the size and direction of variation and several time intervals prior to stroke diagnosis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, we included 9,958 stroke-free participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. This is a prospective cohort study including participants aged 45 years and older. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability was calculated as absolute SBP difference divided by mean SBP over 2 sequential visits (median 4.6 years apart). Directional SBP variability was defined as SBP difference over 2 visits divided by mean SBP. Using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, mean SBP, and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke up to January 2016 were estimated per SD increase and in tertiles of variability. We also conducted analyses with 3-, 6-, and 9-year intervals between variability measurement and stroke assessment. These analyses were repeated for diastolic blood pressure (DBP). The mean age of the study population was 67.4 ± 8.2 years and 5,776 (58.0%) were women. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 971 (9.8%) participants had a stroke, including 641 ischemic, 89 hemorrhagic, and 241 unspecified strokes. SBP variability was associated with an increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (HR per SD 1.27, 95% CI 1.05–1.54, p = 0.02) and unspecified stroke (HR per SD 1.21, 95% CI 1.09–1.34, p < 0.001). The associations were stronger for all stroke subtypes with longer time intervals; the HR for any stroke was 1.29 (95% CI 1.21–1.36, p < 0.001) at 3 years, 1.47 (95% CI 1.35–1.59, p < 0.001) at 6 years, and 1.38 (95%CI 1.24–1.51, p < 0.001) at 9 years. For DBP variability, we found an association with unspecified stroke risk. Both the rise and fall of SBP and the fall of DBP were associated with an increased risk for unspecified stroke. Limitations of the study include that, due to an average interval of 4 years between visits, our findings may not be generalizable to blood pressure variability over shorter periods. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, we found that visit-to-visit blood pressure variation was associated with an increased risk of unspecified and hemorrhagic stroke, independent of direction of variation or mean blood pressure

Immunity and amyloid beta, total tau and neurofilament light chain: Findings from a community-based cohort study

Introduction: We investigated how components of immunity relate to biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in plasma and explored the influence of AD genetic risk factors in the population-based Rotterdam Study. Methods: In 7397 persons, we calculated the granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII). In 3615 of these persons, plasma amyloid-beta (Aβ)42 and Aβ40 were measured. Next, we constructed an overall genetic risk score (GRS) based on genome-wide significant variants, both including and excluding APOE ε4. Results: All innate immunity phenotypes were related to higher Aβ, most strongly with a doubling in GLR leading to a 1.9% higher Aβ42 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.4 to 3.3%) and 3.2% higher Aβ40 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.3%). Higher AD GRS including APOE ε4 was associated with higher immunity markers. Discussion: Higher levels of immunity markers were associated with higher Aβ in plasma. Participants with a higher genetic predisposition to AD had higher immunity markers, where these effects were mainly driven by APOE ε4

Telomere Length and the Risk of Alzheimer's Disease: The Rotterdam Study

There is a wide interest in biomarkers that capture the burden of detrimental factors as these accumulate with the passage of time, i.e., increasing age. Telomere length has received considerable attention as such a marker, because it is easily quantified and it may aid in disentangling the etiology of dementia or serve as predictive marker. We determined the association of telomere length with risk of Alzheimer's disease and all-cause dementia in a population-based setting. Within the Rotterdam Study, we performed quantitative PCR to measure mean leukocyte telomere length in blood. We determined the association of telomere length with risk of Alzheimer's disease until 2016, using Cox regression models. Of 1,961 participants (mean age 71.4±9.3 years, 57.1% women) with a median follow-up of 8.3 years, 237 individuals were diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. We found a U-shaped associa

The association of innate and adaptive immunity, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular disease in the Rotterdam Study: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is driven by multifaceted contributions of the immune system. However, the dysregulation of immune cells that leads to ASCVD is poorly understood. We determined the association of components of innate and adaptive immunity longitudinally with ASCVD, and assessed whether arterial calcifications play a role in this association. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Granulocyte (innate immunity) and lymphocyte (adaptive immunity) counts were determined 3 times (2002-2008, mean age 65.2 years; 2009-2013, mean age 69.0 years; and 2014-2015, mean age 78.5 years) in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without ASCVD at baseline. Participants were followed-up for ASCVD or death until 1 January 2015. A random sample of 2,366 underwent computed tomography at baseline to quantify arterial calcification volume in 4 vessel beds. We studied the association between immunity components with risk of ASCVD and assessed whether immunity components were related to arterial calcifications at baseline. Of 7,730 participants (59.4% women), 801 developed ASCVD during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Having an increased granulocyte count increased ASCVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio for doubled granulocyte count [95% CI] = 1.78 [1.34-2.37], P < 0.001). Higher granulocyte counts were related to larger calcification volumes in all vessels, most prominently in the coronary arteries (mean difference in calcium volume [mm3] per SD increase in granulocyte count [95% CI] = 32.3 [9.9-54.7], P < 0.001). Respectively, the association between granulocyte count and incident coronary heart disease and stroke was partly mediated by coronary artery calcification (overall proportion mediated [95% CI] = 19.0% [-10% to 32.3%], P = 0.08) and intracranial artery calcification (14.9% [-10.9% to 19.1%], P = 0.05). A limitation of our study is that studying the etiology of ASCVD remains difficult within an epidemiological setting due to the limited availability of surrogates for innate and especially adaptive immunity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that an increased granulocyte count was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD in the general population. Moreover, higher levels of granulocytes were associated with larger volumes of arterial calcification. Arterial calcifications may explain a proportion of the link between granulocytes and ASCVD

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population : a population-based cohort study

Background : Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. Methods and findings : Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (> 90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. Conclusions : Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs

Analyzing the effect of APOE on Alzheimer's disease progression using an event-based model for stratified populations

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and is phenotypically heterogeneous. APOE is a triallelic gene which correlates with phenotypic heterogeneity in AD. In this work, we determined the effect of APOE alleles on the disease progression timeline of AD using a discriminative event-based model (DEBM). Since DEBM is a data-driven model, stratification into smaller disease subgroups would lead to more inaccurate models as compared to fitting the model on the entire dataset. Hence our secondary aim is to propose and evaluate novel approaches in which we split the different steps of DEBM into group-aspecific and group-specific parts, where the entire dataset is used to train the group-aspecific parts and only the data from a specific group is used to train the group-specific parts of the DEBM. We performed simulation experiments to benchmark the accuracy of the proposed approaches and to select the optimal approach. Subsequently, the chosen approach was applied to the baseline data of 417 cognitively normal, 235 mild cognitively impaired who convert to AD within 3 years, and 342 AD patients from the Alzheimers Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset to gain new insights into the effect of APOE carriership on the disease progression timeline of AD. In the ε4 carrier group, the model predicted with high confidence that CSF Amyloidβ42 and the cognitive score of Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS) are early biomarkers. Hippocampus was the earliest volumetric biomarker to become abnormal, closely followed by the CSF Phosphorylated Tau181 (PTAU) biomarker. In the homozygous ε3 carrier group, the model predicted a similar ordering among CSF biomarkers. However, the volume of the fusiform gyrus was identified as one of the earliest volumetric biomarker. While the findings in the ε4 carrier and the homozygous ε3 carrier groups fit the current understanding of progression of AD, the finding in the ε2 carrier group did not. The model predicted, with relatively low confidence, CSF Neurogranin as one of the earliest biomarkers along with cognitive score of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Amyloid β42 was found to become abnormal after PTAU. The presented models could aid understanding of the disease, and in selecting homogeneous group of presymptomatic subjects at-risk of developing symptoms for clinical trials

Association of Circulating Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Levels With Cardiovascular Mortality A Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies

Importance Human genetics and studies in experimental models support a key role of monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) in atherosclerosis. Yet, the associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular death in the general population remain largely unexplored. Objective To explore whether circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with risk of incident coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality in the general population. Data Sources and Selection Population-based cohort studies, identified through a systematic review, that have examined associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular end points. Data Extraction and Synthesis Using a prespecified harmonized analysis plan, study-specific summary data were obtained from Cox regression models after excluding individuals with overt cardiovascular disease at baseline. Derived hazard ratios (HRs) were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and unstable angina), nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death (from cardiac or cerebrovascular causes). Results The meta-analysis included 7 cohort studies involving 21401 individuals (mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years;10012 men [46.8%]). Mean (SD) follow-up was 15.3 (4.5) years (326392 person-years at risk). In models adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, higher MCP-1 levels at baseline were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (HR per 1-SD increment in MCP-1 levels: 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11];P = .01), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13];P = .02), and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.05-1.20];P < .001). In analyses comparing MCP-1 quartiles, these associations followed dose-response patterns. After additionally adjusting for vascular risk factors, the risk estimates were attenuated, but the associations of MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular death remained statistically significant, as did the association of MCP-1 levels in the upper quartile with coronary heart disease. There was no significant heterogeneity;the results did not change in sensitivity analyses excluding events occurring in the first 5 years after MCP-1 measurement, and the risk estimates were stable after additional adjustments for circulating levels of interleukin-6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Conclusions and Relevance: Higher circulating MCP-1 levels are associated with higher long-term cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling individuals free of overt cardiovascular disease. These findings provide further support for a key role of MCP-1-signaling in cardiovascular disease. Question Are circulating monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) levels associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population? Findings In this meta-analysis of 7 population-based studies involving 21401 individuals who were free of overt cardiovascular disease, higher baseline circulating MCP-1 levels were associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality over a follow-up extending beyond 20 years. Meaning By complementing evidence from previous genetic and experimental studies, these results provide additional support for a key role of MCP-1 in cardiovascular disease development. This meta-analysis of 7 population-based cohort studies assesses the association between circulating monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 levels and risk of cardiovascular disease and death