Multivariate dynamic kernels for financial time series forecasting

The final publication is available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-44781-0_40We propose a forecasting procedure based on multivariate dynamic kernels, with the capability of integrating information measured at different frequencies and at irregular time intervals in financial markets. A data compression process redefines the original financial time series into temporal data blocks, analyzing the temporal information of multiple time intervals. The analysis is done through multivariate dynamic kernels within support vector regression. We also propose two kernels for financial time series that are computationally efficient without a sacrifice on accuracy. The efficacy of the methodology is demonstrated by empirical experiments on forecasting the challenging S&P500 market.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A numerical study on the evolution of portfolio rules

In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of distribution of wealth in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytical results that show that, whenever a logarithmic utility maximiser enters the market, CAPM traders vanish in the long run. Our analysis provides further insights and extends these results. We simulate a sequence of trades in a financial market and: first, we address the issue of how long is the long run in different parametric settings; second, we study the effect of heterogeneous savings behaviour on asymptotic wealth shares. We find that CAPM is particularly “unfit” for highly risky environments

A study of data-driven momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market by functional data analysis

We apply a functional data analysis approach to decompose the cross-sectional Fama–French three-factor model residuals in the Chinese stock market. Our results indicate that other than Fama–French three factors, there are two orthonormal asset pricing factors describing the behavioral biases in their historical performances: between winner and loser stocks, and extreme and mediocre-performing stocks, respectively. We explain these two factors through investors’ overreaction, overconfidence and the lead-lag effect. These findings empirically show the existence of momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market. A buy-and-hold mean-variance optimized portfolio incorporating these two market anomalies boosts the Sharpe ratio to 1.27

Uso de fármacos psicoestimulantes en drogodependencias

El uso de medicamentos estimulantes es una cuestión de plena actualidad en psiquiatría, aunque su utilización y prescripción es controvertida . Fármacos como el metilfenidato, las anfetaminas, o el modafinilo están siendo utilizados y estudiados en distintas enfermedades psiquiátricas como el trastorno por déficit de atención e hiperactividad (TDAH), la dependencia de cocaína, en trastornos del sueño y en la depresión resistente. Todos estos fármacos tienen en común, igual que las drogas de abuso, que son medicamentos que actúan sobre el sistema dopaminérgico, que constituye la base neurobiológica del refuerzo fisiológico. Los estimulantes como el metilfenidato o el modafinilo son fármacos eficaces en el TDAH y han sido estudiados en el tratamiento de la dependencia de cocaína. En niños con TDAH el metilfenidato es un factor protector para el desarrollo de fármaco en la dependencia de cocaína, aunque son estudios preliminares, por lo que no se debe considerar que este totalmente demostrado que los fármacos psicoestimulantes sean eficaces en el tratamiento de esta dependencia. Aunque no son conocidos todos los mecanismos fisiopatológicos, parece crítico que el refuerzo, y por lo tanto el riesgo de dependencia, aparece cuando se producen incrementos rápidos dopaminérgicos y que los efectos terapéuticos aparecen cuando son lentos y mantenidos. Las características de uso a dosis bajas administradas por vía oral disminuyen el riesgo de abuso. Para realizar una adecuada prescripción es necesario aclarar, definitivamente, los mecanismos neuroquímicos en los que intervienen, y sus indicaciones en drogodependenciasStimulant drugs prescription is a controversial and current topic in psychiatry. Drugs such as methylphenidate, amphetamine compounds and modafinil have been trialed and used in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), sleep conditions, cocaine dependence and as an adjunct to antidepressants for depression. All these drugs, like stimulant drugs abuse, increase extracellular dopamine in the brain.This effect is associated with reinforcing as well as therapeutic effects. Methylphenidate and modafinil treatment of ADHD are associated with a reduced risk for later substance abuse among ADHD patients. There is evidence of the beneficial effects of the use of modafinil in cocaine dependence, altough there isn't conclusive evidence for the stimulants' efficacy in treatment of the stimulants' dependence. At this time, the physiopathology of drug abuse and dependence is unknown, but it's known that the very critical point is that the reinforcing effects are associated with rapid changes in dopamine increases, whereas the therapeutic effects are associated with slowly and smoothly rising dopamine levels, such as are achieved with low doses and oral administration. Due to this, it's necessary to study the neurobiological bases on which stimulants drugs are related, and their clinical use in dependence treatment

Investor heterogeneity and the cross-section of U.K. investment trust performance

We use the upper and lower bounds derived by Ferson and Lin (2010) to examine the impact of investor heterogeneity on the performance of U.K. investment trusts relative to alternative linear factor models. We find using the upper bounds that investor heterogeneity has an important impact for nearly all investment trusts. The upper bounds are large in economic terms and significantly different from zero. We find no evidence of any trusts where all investors agree on the sign of performance beyond what we expect by chance. Using the lower bound, we find that trusts with a larger disagreement about trust performance have a weaker relation between the trust premium and past Net Asset Value (NAV) performance

Stock price reaction to profit warnings: The role of time-varying betas

This study investigates the role of time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the estimation of abnormal returns around important news announcements. Our analysis is based on the stock price reaction to profit warnings issued by a sample of firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The standard event study methodology indicates the presence of price reversal patterns following both positive and negative warnings. However, incorporating time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the modelling process results in post-negative-warning price patterns that are consistent with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis. These adjustments also cause the statistical significance of some post-positive-warning cumulative abnormal returns to disappear and their magnitude to drop to an extent that minor transaction costs would eliminate the profitability of the contrarian strategy

Default risk, state ownership and the cross-section of stock returns: evidence from China

We apply a structural model to estimate firm-level default risk in China and investigate the stock return predictability of default risk and the moderating effects of state ownership for the sample period from 2003 to 2015. We show unique evidence that in China, default risk is positively associated with expected stock returns and state ownership matters considerably to the return predictability of default risk. We find investors of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not compensated appropriately in China despite of their higher default risk exposure. Our empirical evidence supports the conjecture on shareholder advantages and suggests that a strong bargaining power of equity holders would have a negative impact on stock returns