Assessment of possible impact of a health promotion program in Korea from health risk trends in a longitudinally observed cohort

BACKGROUND: Longitudinally observed cohort data can be utilized to assess the potential for health promotion and healthcare planning by comparing the estimated risk factor trends of non-intervened with that of intervened. The paper seeks (1) to estimate a natural transition (patterns of movement between states) of health risk state from a Korean cohort data using a Markov model, (2) to derive an effective and necessary health promotion strategy for the population, and (3) to project a possible impact of an intervention program on health status. METHODS: The observed transition of health risk states in a Korean employee cohort was utilized to estimate the natural flow of aggregated health risk states from eight health risk measures using Markov chain models. In addition, a reinforced transition was simulated, given that a health promotion program was implemented for the cohort, to project a possible impact on improvement of health status. An intervened risk transition was obtained based on age, gender, and baseline risk state, adjusted to match with the Korean cohort, from a simulated random sample of a US employee population, where a health intervention was in place. RESULTS: The estimated natural flow (non-intervened), following Markov chain order 2, showed a decrease in low risk state by 3.1 percentage points in the Korean population while the simulated reinforced transition (intervened) projected an increase in low risk state by 7.5 percentage points. Estimated transitions of risk states demonstrated the necessity of not only the risk reduction but also low risk maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: The frame work of Markov chain efficiently estimated the trend, and captured the tendency in the natural flow. Given only a minimally intense health promotion program, potential risk reduction and low risk maintenance was projected

Acute Pain and a Motivational Pathway in Adult Rats: Influence of Early Life Pain Experience

The importance of neonatal experience upon behaviour in later life is increasingly recognised. The overlap between pain and reward pathways led us to hypothesise that neonatal pain experience influences reward-related pathways and behaviours in adulthood

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula

RECIST revised: implications for the radiologist. A review article on the modified RECIST guideline

The purpose of this review article is to familiarize radiologists with the recently revised Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST), used in many anticancer drug trials to assess response and progression rate. The most important modifications are: a reduction in the maximum number of target lesions from ten to five, with a maximum of two per organ, with a longest diameter of at least 10 mm; in lymph nodes (LNs) the short axis rather than the long axis should be measured, with normal LN measuring <10 mm, non-target LN ≥10 mm but <15 mm and target LN ≥15 mm; osteolytic lesions with a soft tissue component and cystic tumours may serve as target lesions; an additional requirement for progressive disease (PD) of target lesions is not only a ≥20% increase in the sum of the longest diameter (SLD) from the nadir but also a ≥5 mm absolute increase in the SLD (the other response categories of target lesion are unchanged); PD of non-target lesions can only be applied if the increase in non-target lesions is representative of change in overall tumour burden; detailed imaging guidelines. Alternative response criteria in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and gastrointestinal stromal tumours are discussed

Understanding acute ankle ligamentous sprain injury in sports

This paper summarizes the current understanding on acute ankle sprain injury, which is the most common acute sport trauma, accounting for about 14% of all sport-related injuries. Among, 80% are ligamentous sprains caused by explosive inversion or supination. The injury motion often happens at the subtalar joint and tears the anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL) which possesses the lowest ultimate load among the lateral ligaments at the ankle. For extrinsic risk factors to ankle sprain injury, prescribing orthosis decreases the risk while increased exercise intensity in soccer raises the risk. For intrinsic factors, a foot size with increased width, an increased ankle eversion to inversion strength, plantarflexion strength and ratio between dorsiflexion and plantarflexion strength, and limb dominance could increase the ankle sprain injury risk. Players with a previous sprain history, players wearing shoes with air cells, players who do not stretch before exercising, players with inferior single leg balance, and overweight players are 4.9, 4.3, 2.6, 2.4 and 3.9 times more likely to sustain an ankle sprain injury. The aetiology of most ankle sprain injuries is incorrect foot positioning at landing – a medially-deviated vertical ground reaction force causes an explosive supination or inversion moment at the subtalar joint in a short time (about 50 ms). Another aetiology is the delayed reaction time of the peroneal muscles at the lateral aspect of the ankle (60–90 ms). The failure supination or inversion torque is about 41–45 Nm to cause ligamentous rupture in simulated spraining tests on cadaver. A previous case report revealed that the ankle joint reached 48 degrees inversion and 10 degrees internal rotation during an accidental grade I ankle ligamentous sprain injury during a dynamic cutting trial in laboratory. Diagnosis techniques and grading systems vary, but the management of ankle ligamentous sprain injury is mainly conservative. Immobilization should not be used as it results in joint stiffness, muscle atrophy and loss of proprioception. Traditional Chinese medicine such as herbs, massage and acupuncture were well applied in China in managing sports injuries, and was reported to be effective in relieving pain, reducing swelling and edema, and restoring normal ankle function. Finally, the best practice of sports medicine would be to prevent the injury. Different previous approaches, including designing prophylactice devices, introducing functional interventions, as well as change of games rules were highlighted. This paper allows the readers to catch up with the previous researches on ankle sprain injury, and facilitate the future research idea on sport-related ankle sprain injury

Impact of inactivity and exercise on the vasculature in humans

The effects of inactivity and exercise training on established and novel cardiovascular risk factors are relatively modest and do not account for the impact of inactivity and exercise on vascular risk. We examine evidence that inactivity and exercise have direct effects on both vasculature function and structure in humans. Physical deconditioning is associated with enhanced vasoconstrictor tone and has profound and rapid effects on arterial remodelling in both large and smaller arteries. Evidence for an effect of deconditioning on vasodilator function is less consistent. Studies of the impact of exercise training suggest that both functional and structural remodelling adaptations occur and that the magnitude and time-course of these changes depends upon training duration and intensity and the vessel beds involved. Inactivity and exercise have direct “vascular deconditioning and conditioning” effects which likely modify cardiovascular risk