Does the Danube exist? Versions of reality given by various regional climate models and climatological datasets

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several regional climate models (RCMs) nested into the same run of the same Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM) regarding their representation of the statistical properties of the hydrological balance of the Danube river basin for 1961-1990. We also consider the datasets produced by the driving AGCM, from the ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The hydrological balance is computed by integrating the precipitation and evaporation fields over the area of interest. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few datasets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta, even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. Since the considered approach relies on the mass conservation principle and bypasses the details of the air-land interface modeling, we propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Their reliability on smaller river basins may be even more problematic. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses result to be largely inadequate for representing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long-term averages and of the seasonal cycle, and cannot in any sense be used as verification. We suggest that these results should be carefully considered in the perspective of auditing climate models and assessing their ability to simulate future climate changes.Comment: 25 pages 8 figures, 5 table

Linear Categorical Marginal Modeling of solicited symptoms in vaccine clinical trials

Analysis of the occurrence of adverse events, and in particular of solicited symptoms, following vaccination is often needed for the safety and benefit-risk evaluation of any candidate vaccine, and typically involves taking repeated measurements. In this article, it is shown that Linear Categorical Marginal Models (LCMMs) are well suited to take into account the dependencies in the data arising from the repeated measurements and provide detailed and useful information for comparing safety profiles of different products while remaining relatively easy to interpret. LCMMs are presented and applied to a Phase III clinical trial of a candidate meningococcal pediatric vaccine

Skin pigmentation in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata l.) fed conventional and novel protein sources in diets deprived of fish meal

The pattern of yellowish pigmentation of the skin was assessed in gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) fed for 12 weeks iso-proteic (45%) and iso-lipidic (20%) diets deprived of fish meal and containing either a blend of vegetable protein-rich ingredients or where graded levels of the vegetable protein blend were replaced by insect (Hermetia illucens\u201410%, 20% or 40%) pupae meal, poultry by-product meal (20%, 30% or 40%), red swamp crayfish meal (10%) and marine microalgae (Tisochrysis lutea and Tetraselmis suecica\u201410%) dried biomass. Digital images of fish fed diets differing in protein sources were analyzed by means of an automatic and non-invasive image analysis tool, in order to determine the number of yellow pixels and their dispersion on the frontal and lateral sides of the fish. The relationship between the total carotenoid concentration in the diet and the number of yellow pixels was investigated. Test diets differently affected gilthead seabream skin pigmentation both in the forefront and the operculum, due to their carotenoid content. The highest yellow pixels\u2019 number was observed with the diet containing microalgae. Fish fed poultry by-product meal were characterized by the lowest yellow pixels\u2019 number, diets containing insect meal had an intermediate coloring capacity. The vegetable control, the microalgae mix diet and the crayfish diet had significantly higher values of yellow pixels at both inspected skin sites

The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts

The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high-resolution version of EPS. For each configuration, three successive runs of ECMWF ensemble with the same verification time are grouped together so as to generate a highly-populated "super-ensemble". Then, five members are selected from the super-ensemble and used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the integrations with a limited-area model, whose runs generate a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS). The relative impact of targeting the initial perturbations against increasing the horizontal resolution is assessed for the global ensembles as well as for the properties transferred to LEPS integrations, the attention being focussed on the probabilistic prediction of rainfall over a localised area. At the 108, 84 and 60- hour forecast ranges, the overall performance of the global ensembles is not particularly accurate and the best results are obtained by the high-resolution version of EPS. The LEPS performance is very satisfactory in all configurations and the rainfall maps show probability peaks in the correct regions. LEPS products would have been of great assistance to issue flood risk alerts on the basis of limited-area ensemble forecasts. For the 60-hour forecast range, the sensitivity of the results to the LEPS ensemble size is discussed by comparing a 5-member against a 51-member LEPS, where the limited-area model is nested on all EPS members. Little sensitivity is found as concerns the detection of the regions most likely affected by heavy precipitation, the probability peaks being approximately the same in both configurations

Plasmonic nanorods for enhanced absorption in mid-wavelength infrared detectors

The absorption properties of HgCdTe-based infrared detectors can be greatly increased in the mid-infrared band, by incorporating nanostructured plasmonic arrays on the illuminated detector face. The array periodicity, combined with the excitation of surface plasmon-polariton stationary modes, enhances the absorption efficiency by a substantial amount, allowing to reduce in turn the HgCdTe absorption thickness

Challenges in multiphysics modeling of dual-band HgCdTe infrared detectors

We present three-dimensional simulations of HgCdTe-based focal plane arrays (FPAs) with two-color and dual-band sequential infrared pixels having realistic truncated-pyramid shape taking into account the presence of compositionally-graded transition layers. Simulations emphasize the importance of a full-wave approach to the electromagnetic problem, and the evaluations of the optical and diffusive contribution to inter-pixel crosstalk indicate the effectiveness of deep trenches to prevent diffusive crosstalk in both wavebands

DTI and MR Volumetry of Hippocampus-PC/PCC Circuit: In Search of Early Micro- and Macrostructural Signs of Alzheimers's Disease

Hippocampal damage, by DTI or MR volumetry, and PET hypoperfusion of precuneus/posterior cingulate cortex (PC/PCC) were proposed as biomarkers of conversion from preclinical (MCI) to clinical stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). This study evaluated structural damage, by DTI and MR volumetry, of hippocampi and tracts connecting hippocampus to PC/PCC (hipp-PC/PCC) in 10 AD, 10 MCI, and 18 healthy controls (CTRL). Normalized volumes, mean diffusivity (MD), and fractional anisotropy (FA) were obtained for grey matter (GM), white matter (WM), hippocampi, PC/PCC, and hipp-PC/PCC tracts. In hippocampi and hipp-PC/PCC tracts, decreased volumes and increased MD were found in AD versus CTRL (P < .001). The same results with lower significance (P < .05) were found in MCI versus CTRL. Verbal memory correlated (P < .05) in AD with left hippocampal and hipp-PC/PCC tract MD, and in MCI with FA of total WM. Both DTI and MR volumetry of hippocampi and hipp-PC/PCC tracts detect early signs of AD in MCI patients

Effect of peroxides on spermine transport in rat brain and liver mitochondria.

The polyamine spermine is transported into the matrix of various types of mitochondria by a specific uniporter system identified as a protein channel. This mechanism is regulated by the membrane potential; other regulatory effectors are unknown. This study analyzes the transport of spermine in the presence of peroxides in both isolated rat liver and brain mitochondria, in order to evaluate the involvement of the redox state in this mechanism, and to compare its effect in both types of mitochondria. In liver mitochondria peroxides are able to inhibit spermine transport. This effect is indicative of redox regulation by the transporter, probably due to the presence of critical thiol groups along the transport pathway, or in close association with it, with different accessibility for the peroxides and performing different functions. In brain mitochondria, peroxides have several effects, supporting the hypothesis of a different regulation of spermine transport. The fact that peroxovanadate can inhibit tyrosine phosphatases in brain mitochondria suggests that mitochondrial spermine transport is regulated by tyrosine phosphorylation in this organ. In this regard, the evaluation of spermine transport in the presence of Src inhibitors suggests the involvement of Src family kinases in this process. It is possible that phosphorylation sites for Src kinases are present in the channel pathway and have an inhibitory effect on spermine transport under regulation by Src kinases. The results of this study suggest that the activity of the spermine transporter probably depends on the redox and/or tyrosine phosphorylation state of mitochondria, and that its regulation may be different in distinct organs

Lipid profile during pregnancy in HIV-infected women

Purpose: We investigated the evolution of serum lipid levels in HIV-infected pregnant women and the potential effect of antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy using data from a national surveillance study. Method: Fasting lipid measurements collected during routine care in pregnancy were used, analyzing longitudinal changes and differences in lipid values at each trimester by protease inhibitors (Pls) and stavudine use. Multivariate analyses were used to control for simultaneous factors potentially leading to hyperlipidemia. Study population included 248 women. Results: Lipid values increased progressively and significantly during pregnancy: mean increases between the first and third trimesters were 141.6 mg/dL for triglycerides (p <.001), 60.8 mg/dL for total cholesterol (p <.001), 13.7 mg/dL for HDL cholesterol (p <.001), and 17.8 mg/dL for LDL cholesterol (p =.001). At all trimesters, women on PIs had significantly higher triglyceride values compared to women not on Pis. The effect of Pls on cholesterol levels was less consistent. Stavudine showed a dyslipidemic effect at first trimester only. Multivariate analyses confirmed these observations and suggested a potential role of other cofactors in the development of hyperlipidemia during pregnancy. Conclusion: The changes observed point to the need to further explore the causes and the clinical correlates of hyperlipidemia during pregnancy in women with HIV