Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks

Anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. A central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections, and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. Further, important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. Here we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by at least an order of magnitude. Using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble, this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. In particular, negative values for the uncertain indirect aerosol forcing exceeding -1.2Wm-2 can be excluded with high confidence. A parameterization to account for the uncertainty in the future carbon cycle is introduced, derived separately from a carbon cycle model. This allows us to quantify the effect of the feedback between oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake and global warming on global temperature projections. Finally, probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated, taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, model parameters and the observed temperature records. We find that warming exceeds the surface warming range projected by IPCC for almost half of the ensemble members. Projection uncertainties are only consistent with IPCC if a model-derived upper limit of about 5K is assumed for climate sensitivit

Trends in marine dissolved oxygen: Implications for ocean circulation changes and the carbon budget

Recent measurements and model studies have consistently identified a decreasing trend in the concentration of dissolved O2 in the ocean over the last several decades. This trend has important implications for our understanding of anthropogenic climate change. First, the observed oceanic oxygen changes may be a signal of the beginning of a reorganization of large-scale ocean circulation in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Second, the repartitioning of oxygen between the ocean and the atmosphere requires a revision of the current atmospheric carbon budget and the estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks as calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from measurements of atmospheric O2/N2

Making SPIFFI SPIFFIER: Upgrade of the SPIFFI instrument for use in ERIS and performance analysis from re-commissioning

SPIFFI is an AO-fed integral field spectrograph operating as part of SINFONI on the VLT, which will be upgraded and reused as SPIFFIER in the new VLT instrument ERIS. In January 2016, we used new technology developments to perform an early upgrade to optical subsystems in the SPIFFI instrument so ongoing scientific programs can make use of enhanced performance before ERIS arrives in 2020. We report on the upgraded components and the performance of SPIFFI after the upgrade, including gains in throughput and spatial and spectral resolution. We show results from re-commissioning, highlighting the potential for scientific programs to use the capabilities of the upgraded SPIFFI. Finally, we discuss the additional upgrades for SPIFFIER which will be implemented before it is integrated into ERIS.Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures. Proceedings from SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 201

The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: A common approach across the working groups

Evaluation and communication of the relative degree of certainty in assessment findings are key cross-cutting issues for the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A goal for the Fifth Assessment Report, which is currently under development, is the application of a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterize findings of the assessment process. A guidance note for authors of the Fifth Assessment Report has been developed that describes this common approach and language, building upon the guidance employed in past Assessment Reports. Here, we introduce the main features of this guidance note, with a focus on how it has been designed for use by author teams. We also provide perspectives on considerations and challenges relevant to the application of this guidance in the contribution of each Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report. Despite the wide spectrum of disciplines encompassed by the three Working Groups, we expect that the framework of the new uncertainties guidance will enable consistent communication of the degree of certainty in their policy-relevant assessment findings

Photochemistry of Furyl- and Thienyldiazomethanes: Spectroscopic Characterization of Triplet 3-Thienylcarbene

Photolysis (λ \u3e 543 nm) of 3-thienyldiazomethane (1), matrix isolated in Ar or N2 at 10 K, yields triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) and α-thial-methylenecyclopropene (9). Carbene 13 was characterized by IR, UV/vis, and EPR spectroscopy. The conformational isomers of 3-thienylcarbene (s-E and s-Z) exhibit an unusually large difference in zero-field splitting parameters in the triplet EPR spectrum (|D/hc| = 0.508 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0554 cm–1; |D/hc| = 0.579 cm–1, |E/hc| = 0.0315 cm–1). Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) calculations reveal substantially differing spin densities in the 3-thienyl ring at the positions adjacent to the carbene center, which is one factor contributing to the large difference in D values. NBO calculations also reveal a stabilizing interaction between the sp orbital of the carbene carbon in the s-Z rotamer of 13 and the antibonding σ orbital between sulfur and the neighboring carbon—an interaction that is not observed in the s-E rotamer of 13. In contrast to the EPR spectra, the electronic absorption spectra of the rotamers of triplet 3-thienylcarbene (13) are indistinguishable under our experimental conditions. The carbene exhibits a weak electronic absorption in the visible spectrum (λmax = 467 nm) that is characteristic of triplet arylcarbenes. Although studies of 2-thienyldiazomethane (2), 3-furyldiazomethane (3), or 2-furyldiazomethane (4) provided further insight into the photochemical interconversions among C5H4S or C5H4O isomers, these studies did not lead to the spectroscopic detection of the corresponding triplet carbenes (2-thienylcarbene (11), 3-furylcarbene (23), or 2-furylcarbene (22), respectively)

Crystal structure of the dynamin tetramer

The mechanochemical protein dynamin is the prototype of the dynamin superfamily of large GTPases, which shape and remodel membranes in diverse cellular processes. Dynamin forms predominantly tetramers in the cytosol, which oligomerize at the neck of clathrin-coated vesicles to mediate constriction and subsequent scission of the membrane. Previous studies have described the architecture of dynamin dimers, but the molecular determinants for dynamin assembly and its regulation have remained unclear. Here we present the crystal structure of the human dynamin tetramer in the nucleotide-free state. Combining structural data with mutational studies, oligomerization measurements and Markov state models of molecular dynamics simulations, we suggest a mechanism by which oligomerization of dynamin is linked to the release of intramolecular autoinhibitory interactions. We elucidate how mutations that interfere with tetramer formation and autoinhibition can lead to the congenital muscle disorders Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy and centronuclear myopathy, respectively. Notably, the bent shape of the tetramer explains how dynamin assembles into a right-handed helical oligomer of defined diameter, which has direct implications for its function in membrane constriction

TGF-b2 induction regulates invasiveness of theileria-transformed leukocytes and disease susceptibility

Theileria parasites invade and transform bovine leukocytes causing either East Coast fever (T. parva), or tropical theileriosis (T. annulata). Susceptible animals usually die within weeks of infection, but indigenous infected cattle show markedly reduced pathology, suggesting that host genetic factors may cause disease susceptibility. Attenuated live vaccines are widely used to control tropical theileriosis and attenuation is associated with reduced invasiveness of infected macrophages in vitro. Disease pathogenesis is therefore linked to aggressive invasiveness, rather than uncontrolled proliferation of Theileria-infected leukocytes. We show that the invasive potential of Theileria-transformed leukocytes involves TGF-b signalling. Attenuated live vaccine lines express reduced TGF-b2 and their invasiveness can be rescued with exogenous TGF-b. Importantly, infected macrophages from disease susceptible Holstein-Friesian (HF) cows express more TGF-b2 and traverse Matrigel with great efficiency compared to those from disease-resistant Sahiwal cattle. Thus, TGF-b2 levels correlate with disease susceptibility. Using fluorescence and time-lapse video microscopy we show that Theileria-infected, disease-susceptible HF macrophages exhibit increased actin dynamics in their lamellipodia and podosomal adhesion structures and develop more membrane blebs. TGF-b2-associated invasiveness in HF macrophages has a transcription-independent element that relies on cytoskeleton remodelling via activation of Rho kinase (ROCK). We propose that a TGF-b autocrine loop confers an amoeboid-like motility on Theileria-infected leukocytes, which combines with MMP-dependent motility to drive invasiveness and virulence