Are Rapid Population Estimates Accurate? A Field Trial of Two Different Assessment Methods.

Emergencies resulting in large-scale displacement often lead to populations resettling in areas where basic health services and sanitation are unavailable. To plan relief-related activities quickly, rapid population size estimates are needed. The currently recommended Quadrat method estimates total population by extrapolating the average population size living in square blocks of known area to the total site surface. An alternative approach, the T-Square, provides a population estimate based on analysis of the spatial distribution of housing units taken throughout a site. We field tested both methods and validated the results against a census in Esturro Bairro, Beira, Mozambique. Compared to the census (population: 9,479), the T-Square yielded a better population estimate (9,523) than the Quadrat method (7,681; 95% confidence interval: 6,160-9,201), but was more difficult for field survey teams to implement. Although applicable only to similar sites, several general conclusions can be drawn for emergency planning

ADAPTABILIDADE EM SISTEMAS DE RECOMENDAÇÃO: PERSPECTIVAS

Recommender Systems and Navigation Systems are increasingly helping to search for desired items in the Internet. This paper discusses possible applications of adaptive behavior to these systems, presenting an algorithm that uses Adaptive Markov Machines for recommendation.Sistemas de Recomendação e Sistemas de Navegação auxiliam cada vez mais na busca de itens desejados na internet. Este paper discute possiveis aplicações de adaptabilidade nestes sistemas, apresentando um algoritmo que utiliza Máquinas de Markov Adaptativas para recomendação

Análise nutricional e complementação alimentar de cesta básica derivada do consumo

INTRODUCTION: The Dieese & Procon Basket (DPB) is a list of basic foodstuffs, drawn up on the basis of a Standard of Living and Work Research project in S. Paulo city, Brazil. Seeing that it has been used as a standard for price variations, it is desirable that such an economic instrument as this, should also represent a truly healthy standard of nutrition. Thus, this study seeks to verify the adequacy of the food products in the DPB in relation to the nutritional needs of a typical reference family in S. Paulo city. It also proposes some techniques for dietary complementation. METHODOLOGY: A demographic census, undertaken in 1991 has been used to establish the reference family, as well as 2/3rds of RDA as corresponding to its nutritional needs, and the food composition tables of McCance & Widdowson to analyse the nutrient content of the DPB. Dietary complementation were undertaken by three different methods: Ad Hoc (direct suggestions), Linear Programming (computer software was utilized to minimize costs), and Hybrid (a combination of the first two). RESULTS: Food items in the DPB showed insufficient values for vitamins A, C, B2 and B6, and for minerals Ca, Mg, Fe, Zn, I and Se; besides, a relatively high fat content was found. The Hybrid Method of food complementation seems to present the best results, associating low cost and local dietary habits. DISCUSSION: A relation between the dietary deficiencies of the DPB and the nutritional transition in the developing countries may be infered. The epidemiological risks associated with these changes in eating patterns should not be incorporated into a reliable economic instrument.INTRODUÇÃO: A "cesta básica Dieese e Procon", originada de uma Pesquisa de Padrão de Vida e Emprego no Município de São Paulo, tem sido empregada como parâmetro para o acompanhamento de preços. Seria desejável que um instrumento econômico, utilizado com esta finalidade, correspondesse também a uma nutrição efetivamente saudável. Assim, foram analisados os níveis de adequação dos itens alimentares da cesta básica em relação às necessidades nutricionais de uma família-referência paulistana, e propostas técnicas de complementação dietética para sanar possíveis deficiências ou desbalanceamento. METODOLOGIA: Utilizou-se o Censo Demográfico do IBGE, de 1991, para se determinar a família-referência; adotaram-se dois terços das "Recommended Dietary Allowances" como parâmetro de necessidades nutricionais; e utilizou-se das tabelas de composição centesimal para verificação do aporte de nutrientes da cesta básica. Efetuou-se a complementação alimentar por meio de três diferentes métodos: Ad Hoc (proposta direta e fixa), Programação Linear (proposta via computador e sazonal, com ênfase na minimização de custos), Híbrido (uma combinação dos dois anteriores). RESULTADOS: Foram encontrados valores insuficientes para as vitaminas A, C, B2 e B6 e para os minerais Ca, Mg, Fe, Zn, I e Se; o percentual de lipídios no total calórico mostrou-se elevado. Entre as técnicas de complementação, o método Híbrido pareceu assimilar, mais eficientemente, os baixos custos e os hábitos dietéticos. DISCUSSÃO: Inferiu-se uma eventual correspondência entre os problemas nutricionais detectados na relação de itens da cesta básica e a chamada transição alimentar que se processa nos países em desenvolvimento. Não parece aconselhável que os riscos epidemiológicos associados a essa alteração nos padrões dietéticos sejam incorporados num instrumento econômico que tenha por finalidade mensurar os preços de uma alimentação equilibrada

Recuperação de pastagem degradada pelo consórcio de milho, Urochloa brizantha cv. Marandu e guandu.

Objetivou-se com esse trabalho avaliar a viabilidade da recuperação de pastagens degradadas através do banco de sementes presente na área, com a utilização do sistema de consórcio de milho com pastagem com feijão guandu. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, em esquema fatorial 2x3 composto pela utilização ou não do guandu e 3 densidades de semeadura da forrageira (banco de semente – 0 kg ha-1; 2 kg ha-1 e 4 kg ha-1), com 4 repetições. Foram avaliados: o número de espigas por planta, altura de inserção da primeira espiga, altura de plantas, número de fileiras de grãos por espiga, número de grãos por fileira, peso de cem grãos, produtividade do milho, rendimento de biomassa verde do milho, rendimento de biomassa seca do milho, biomassa seca da Urochloa brizantha cv. Marandu, biomassa verde e seca do feijão guandu. Os resultados demonstram que as sementes presentes no banco de semente das áreas degradadas são viáveis para recuperar a pastagem por meio do consórcio. A utilização do guandu aumenta a produção de forragem até a densidade de semeadura de 2 kg ha-1 da forrageira. O uso do consórcio milho, braquiária e guandu não causa prejuízos à cultura do milho em relação aos seus componentes de produção

Feasibility of a mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose oral cholera vaccine in an urban cholera-endemic setting in Mozambique.

We conducted a study to assess the feasibility and the potential vaccine coverage of a mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose oral cholera vaccine in an urban endemic neighbourhood of Beira, Mozambique. The campaign was conducted from December 2003 to January 2004. Overall 98,152 doses were administered, and vaccine coverage of the target population was 58.6% and 53.6% for the first and second rounds, respectively. The direct cost of the campaign, which excludes the price of the vaccine, amounted to slightly over 90,000 dollars, resulting in the cost per fully vaccinated person of 2.09 dollars, which is relatively high. However, in endemic settings where outbreaks are likely to occur, integrating cholera vaccination into the routine activities of the public health system could reduce such costs

Determinants and clinical outcomes of patients who refused anticoagulation: findings from the global GARFIELD-AF registry.

OBJECTIVE: There is a substantial incidence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) not receiving anticoagulation. The reasons for not receiving anticoagulation are generally attributed to clinician's choice, however, a proportion of AF patients refuse anticoagulation. The aim of our study was to investigate factors associated with patient refusal of anticoagulation and the clinical outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Our study population comprised patients in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD-AF) registry with CHA2DS2-VASc≥2. A logistic regression was developed with predictors of patient anticoagulation refusal identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator methodology. Patient demographics, medical and cardiovascular history, lifestyle factors, vital signs (body mass index, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure), type of AF and care setting at diagnosis were considered as potential predictors. We also investigated 2-year outcomes of non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), major bleeding and all-cause mortality in patients who refused versus patients who received and patients who did not receive anticoagulation for other reasons. RESULTS: Out of 43 154 AF patients, who were at high risk of stroke, 13 283 (30.8%) did not receive anticoagulation at baseline. The reason for not receiving anticoagulation was unavailable for 38.7% (5146/13 283); of the patients with a known reason for not receiving anticoagulation, 12.5% (1014/8137) refused anticoagulation. Diagnosis in primary care/general practitioner, Asian ethnicity and presence of vascular disease were strongly associated with a higher risk of patient refusal of anticoagulation. Patient refusal of anticoagulation was associated with a higher risk of non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.16 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.76)) but lower all-cause mortality (aHR 0.59 (95% CI 0.43 to 0.80)) compared with patients who received anticoagulation. The GARFIELD-AF mortality score corroborated this result. CONCLUSION: The data suggest patient refusal of anticoagulation is a missed opportunity to prevent AF-related stroke. Further research is required to understand the patient profile and mortality outcome of patients who refuse anticoagulation

GHEP-ISFG collaborative exercise on mixture profiles of autosomal STRs (GHEP-MIX01, GHEP-MIX02 and GHEP-MIX03): results and evaluation

One of the main objectives of the Spanish and Portuguese-Speaking Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) is to promote and contribute to the development and dissemination of scientific knowledge in the area of forensic genetics. Due to this fact, GHEP-ISFG holds different working commissions that are set up to develop activities in scientific aspects of general interest. One of them, the Mixture Commission of GHEP-ISFG, has organized annually, since 2009, a collaborative exercise on analysis and interpretation of autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) mixture profiles. Until now, three exercises have been organized (GHEP-MIX01, GHEP-MIX02 and GHEP-MIX03), with 32, 24 and 17 participant laboratories respectively. The exercise aims to give a general vision by addressing, through the proposal of mock cases, aspects related to the edition of mixture profiles and the statistical treatment. The main conclusions obtained from these exercises may be summarized as follows. Firstly, the data show an increased tendency of the laboratories toward validation of DNA mixture profiles analysis following international recommendations (ISO/IEC 17025:2005). Secondly, the majority of discrepancies are mainly encountered in stutters positions (53.4%, 96.0% and 74.9%, respectively for the three editions). On the other hand, the results submitted reveal the importance of performing duplicate analysis by using different kits in order to reduce errors as much as possible. Regarding the statistical aspect (GHEP-MIX02 and 03), all participants employed the likelihood ratio (LR) parameter to evaluate the statistical compatibility and the formulas employed were quite similar. When the hypotheses to evaluate the LR value were locked by the coordinators (GHEP-MIX02) the results revealed a minor number of discrepancies that were mainly due to clerical reasons. However, the GHEP-MIX03 exercise allowed the participants to freely come up with their own hypotheses to calculate the LR value. In this situation the laboratories reported several options to explain the mock cases proposed and therefore significant differences between the final LR values were obtained. Complete information concerning the background of the criminal case is a critical aspect in order to select the adequate hypotheses to calculate the LR value. Although this should be a task for the judicial court to decide, it is important for the expert to account for the different possibilities and scenarios, and also offer this expertise to the judge. In addition, continuing education in the analysis and interpretation of mixture DNA profiles may also be a priority for the vast majority of forensic laboratories.Fil: Sala, Adriana Andrea. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica. Servicio de Huellas Digitales Genéticas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Crespillo, M.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Barrio, P. A.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Luque, J. A.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Alves, Cíntia. Universidad de Porto; PortugalFil: Aler, M.. Servicio de Laboratorio. Sección de Genética Forense y Criminalística; EspañaFil: Alessandrini, F.. Università Politecnica delle Marche. Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health; ItaliaFil: Andrade, L.. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal e Ciências Forenses, Delegação do Centro. Serviço de Genética e Biologia Forenses; PortugalFil: Barretto, R. M.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Bofarull, A.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Costa, S.. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal y Ciencias Forenses; PortugalFil: García, M. A.. Servicio de Criminalística de la Guardia Civil. Laboratorio Central de Criminalística. Departamento de Biología; EspañaFil: García, O.. Basque Country Police. Forensic Genetics Section. Forensic Science Unit; EspañaFil: Gaviria, A.. Cruz Roja Ecuatoriana. Laboratorio de Genética Molecular; EcuadorFil: Gladys, A.. Corte Suprema de Justicia de la Nación; ArgentinaFil: Gorostiza, A.. Grupo Zeltia. Genomica S. A. U.. Laboratorio de Identificación Genética; EspañaFil: Hernández, A.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Herrera, M.. Laboratorio Genda S. A.; ArgentinaFil: Hombreiro, L.. Jefatura Superior de Policía de Galicia. Brigada de Policía Científica. Laboratorio Territorial de Biología – ADN; EspañaFil: Ibarra, A. A.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Jiménez, M. J.. Policia de la Generalitat – Mossos d’Esquadra. Divisió de Policia Científica. Àrea Central de Criminalística. Unitat Central de Laboratori Biològic; EspañaFil: Luque, G. M.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Madero, P.. Centro de Análisis Genéticos; EspañaFil: Martínez Jarreta, B.. Universidad de Zaragoza; EspañaFil: Masciovecchio, M. Verónica. IACA Laboratorios; ArgentinaFil: Modesti, Nidia Maria. Provincia de Córdoba. Poder Judicial; ArgentinaFil: Moreno, F.. Servicio Médico Legal. Unidad de Genética Forense; ChileFil: Pagano, S.. Dirección Nacional de Policía Técnica. Laboratorio de Análisis de ADN para el CODIS; UruguayFil: Pedrosa, S.. Navarra de Servicios y Tecnologías S. A. U.; EspañaFil: Plaza, G.. Neodiagnostica S. L.; EspañaFil: Prat, E.. Comisaría General de Policía Científica. Laboratorio de ADN; EspañaFil: Puente, J.. Laboratorio de Genética Clínica S. L.; EspañaFil: Rendo, F.. Universidad del País Vasco; EspañaFil: Ribeiro, T.. Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal e Ciências Forenses, Delegação Sul. Serviço de Genética e Biologia Forenses; PortugalFil: Santamaría, E.. Instituto Nacional de Toxicología y Ciencias Forenses; EspañaFil: Saragoni, V. G.. Servicio Médico Legal. Departamento de Laboratorios. Unidad de Genética Forense; ChileFil: Whittle, M. R.. Genomic Engenharia Molecular; Brasi