Modelling Taylor Rule Uncertainty

In recent years, one has witnessed a widespread attention on the way monetary policy is conducted and in particular on the role of the so-called monetary policy rules. The conventional approach in the literature consists in estimating reaction functions for a monetary authority (the Federal Reserve, in most cases) in which a nominal interest rate, directly or indirectly controlled by that monetary authority, is adjusted in response to deviations of inflation (current or expected) from target and of output from potential. These reaction functions, usually called Taylor rules, following John Taylor's seminal paper published in 1993, match a number of normative principles set forth in the literature for optimal monetary policy. This provides a good reason for the growing prominence of indications given by Taylor rule estimations in debates about current and prospective monetary policy stance. However, they are usually presented as point estimates for the interest rate, giving a sense of accuracy that can be misleading. Typically, no emphasis is placed on the risks of those estimates and, at least to a certain extent, the reader is encouraged to concentrate on an apparently precise central projection, ignoring the wide degree of uncertainty and operational difficulties surrounding the estimates. As in any forecasting exercise, there is uncertainty regarding both the estimated parameters and the way the explanatory variables evolve during the forecasting horizon. Our work presents a methodology to estimate a probability density function for the interest rate resulting from the application of a Taylor rule (the Taylor interest rate) which acknowledges that not only the explanatory variables but also the parameters of the rule are random variables.

Supersymmetric type-III seesaw: lepton flavour violating decays and dark matter

We study a supersymmetric version of the seesaw mechanism type-III. The model consists of the MSSM particle content plus three copies of 24 superfields. The fermionic part of the SU(2) triplet contained in the 24 is responsible for the type-III seesaw, which is used to explain the observed neutrino masses and mixings. Complete copies of 24 are introduced to maintain gauge coupling unification. These additional states change the beta functions of the gauge couplings above the seesaw scale. Using mSUGRA boundary conditions we calculate the resulting supersymmetric mass spectra at the electro-weak scale using full 2-loop renormalization group equations. We show that the resulting spectrum can be quite different compared to the usual mSUGRA spectrum. We discuss how this might be used to obtain information on the seesaw scale from mass measurements. Constraints on the model space due to limits on lepton flavour violating decays are discussed. The main constraints come from the bounds on the decay mu to e and gamma but there are also regions where the decay tau to mu and gamma gives stronger constraints. We also calculate the regions allowed by the dark matter constraint. For the sake of completeness, we compare our results with those for the supersymmetric seesaw type-II and, to some extent, with type-I.Comment: 32 pages, 16 eps figures. One ref. added; small changes in tex

Comparison of the metabolism of two floodplain lakes of the Trombetas River (Pará, Brazil) based on a study of diel variation

The diel variation of temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration and chlorophyll-a was investigated in Batata and Mussurá Lakes on the Trombetas River floodplain. The diel variation of temperature was distinct in both lakes. The water column of Batata lake was completely mixed after 22ºº hour and Mussurá lake developed a well stablished gradient of temperature (differences up to 5.6 °C between surface and depth) which persisted all over the period studied. The thermal behavior determined the diet variation of the other parameters studied, which presented a homogenous vertical distribution in Batata Lake and remained stratified in Mussurá Lake. Chlorophyll-a concentrations were considerably lower in Batata Lake (1.8 µg/l) than in Mussurá Lake (10.8 µg/l) and resulted in production values (measured by oxygen diel variation) of ca. 2.6 g O2*m⁻²*d⁻¹ the first and 18.2 g O2*m⁻²*d⁻¹ in the former one

Science fairs in non-disciplinary curricular areas

During the school year of 2008 – 2009 was organized the third edition of the science fair at Externato Maria Auxiliadora, in Viana do Castelo, Portugal. This fair involved students from the 5th grade to the 9th grade (ages between 10 and 15 years old). On previous years students had the opportunity to work, at school, with the responsible teachers during lunch time. On this edition, students had also the opportunity to work, in some occasions, in their projects in “Área de Projecto” and in the Science Club. The effort of the science teachers that organized this event for the third time was reduced by the involvement of these non-disciplinary areas. This fact, associated to the experience that students acquire along this years, by participating or seeing the projects of others colleagues originate a science fair with good projects and the success was even larger. This event is already visited by family and friends of our students, but we hope that next year, this work will be presented to a larger community

Teacher training on the implementation of science research projects in classroom context

Teacher Training on the Implementation of Science Research Projects In Classroom Contextinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Scientific research projects in vocational training schools

Vocational schools are a resource for many students, with usually low motivation and high learning difficulties. The fact that this type of teaching is of a more practical, experimental, and job oriented type, points to teaching strategies less theoretical and focus on a more practical student involvement. Profiting from those characteristics, the study of the use of scientific projects on vocational teaching was initiated. It was proposed to vocational school students, high-school equivalent students, the development of small science projects in the subjects of physics and chemistry with the final objective of being presented. The difficulty level of the science projects was increased progressively, in a way to be correctly adapted to this type of teaching. Learning gains were evaluated trough questionnaires and tests presented at different stages of the learning process

Teacher training on the implementation of science research projects In classroom context

The introduction of the use of science projects in the classroom in the context of teacher training is of great relevance, especially since the development of these projects in Portuguese schools is not a regular practice, despite the fact that their pedagogical importance had been widely proved. These advantages include the development of decision making skills and a critical mind, which are essential to the learning and understanding of science. In the school year of 2009/2010, a teacher training course on the development of science projects in the classroom was carried out. This course aimed at the creation of strategies for the implementation of the development of science projects, by the students, both in classroom context or as extracurricular activity. In this work, we present the strategies employed at this teachers training course. We also present the discussions and the different contributions received from the group of teachers involved in this activity, along with the proposed in-class/school implementation strategies and different examples

Discovering light. The 5th Science Fair Hands-on Science

Inscribed in the celebrations of the International Year of Light, IYL2015, in Portugal, the Hands-on Science Network Association together with the Portuguese Society of Optics and Photonics15, SPOF, and with the support of the European Physical Society, organised the 5th Science Fair Hands-on Science this year under the main theme "DISCOVERING LIGHT". The competition was open to students and groups of students, but also teachers and educators of all levels of education, from pre-primary to higher education and to anyone interested on science and science education. Over hundred contributions were considered of all kinds, from hands-on experiments to experimental demonstrations, posters and lectures but also dance and drama performances as well as other artistic expressions such as drawings, poems, and even songs… all vivid expression of a fertile imagination creativity and ingenuity with a true and sound interest of the participants on science and specially on light optics and its applications. Themes were the most varied, not only related to the physical properties of light and its multiple applications or to the different and extraordinary optical phenomena or optical instruments that make our lives easier and more interesting and which are so important for the development of our societies, but also those in the fields of dream and "magic" ... connecting in fact all dimensions of the human being in most interesting and pleasant ways. The science fair held in Viana do Castelo, northwest of Portugal, May 25, 2015, enrolled over five hundred participants and a few hundred visitors in an exciting and most lively and enjoyable day that surely contributed significantly to raise the awareness of the importance and appeal of Optics and Photonics

The Hands-on Science Network science fair in Portugal

The Hands-on Science Network organizes a major national science fair [1-3] in Portugal since 2011 [4]. Last year edition was held late May in Viana do Castelo in the northwest of Portugal. Being 2015 the International Year of Light, the main theme of the 5th HSCI Science Fair [5] was the light and optics and its applications. A good number projects from all fields of science were also presented. Nearly 150 projects enrolling over 450 students (Portuguese and Turkish – a large delegation of teachers from different regions of Turkey attended presenting 35 works on optics and ecology and environment coming from the project “Saving Our Species, S.O.S.”) were presented in a most lively science fair day that received over 500 visitors

Statistical analysis on three hands-on science national science fairs in Portugal

Three years ago the Science Fair “Hands-on Science” was established with focus on upper basic and high school levels. In April 2013 the third edition of the hands-on science network science fair was organized, in Viana do Castelo, Portugal. For the first time, the science fair was organized within a school, with the participation of students as the staff. The fair took also place in a different city, smaller and with a lesser number of schools in the region. In this communication we intend to show the evolution experienced in organizing this event over the last three years. Replies to questionnaires prepared for both students and teachers allowed us to assess our initiative and draw conclusion that will be presented herein. We will review how the work was carried out in different schools. We show how to organize a large scale science fair within a school environment and suggest methods to include these activities in a school daily context.This work was partially supported by the project Pri-Sci-Net funded from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 266647