Metamodel-based importance sampling for the simulation of rare events

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as reliability methods have been proposed. A certain approach consists in replacing the original experiment by a surrogate which is much faster to evaluate. Nevertheless, it is often difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the error made by this substitution. In this paper an alternative approach is developed. It takes advantage of the kriging meta-modeling and importance sampling techniques. The proposed alternative estimator is finally applied to a finite element based structural reliability analysis.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Preprint submitted to ICASP11 Mini-symposia entitled "Meta-models/surrogate models for uncertainty propagation, sensitivity and reliability analysis

Metamodel-based importance sampling for structural reliability analysis

Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation methods, which may require $10^{3-6}$ runs cannot be used directly. Surrogate models such as quadratic response surfaces, polynomial chaos expansions or kriging (which are built from a limited number of runs of the original model) are then introduced as a substitute of the original model to cope with the computational cost. In practice it is almost impossible to quantify the error made by this substitution though. In this paper we propose to use a kriging surrogate of the performance function as a means to build a quasi-optimal importance sampling density. The probability of failure is eventually obtained as the product of an augmented probability computed by substituting the meta-model for the original performance function and a correction term which ensures that there is no bias in the estimation even if the meta-model is not fully accurate. The approach is applied to analytical and finite element reliability problems and proves efficient up to 100 random variables.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables. Preprint submitted to Probabilistic Engineering Mechanic

Absorption spectrum in the wings of the potassium second resonance doublet broadened by helium

We have measured the reduced absorption coefficients occurring in the wings of the potassium 4S-5P doublet lines at 404.414 nm and at 404.720 nm broadened by helium gas at pressures of several hundred Torr. At the experimental temperature of 900 K, we have detected a shoulder-like broadening feature on the blue wing of the doublet which is relatively flat between 401.8 nm and 402.8 nm and which drops off rapidly for shorter wavelengths, corresponding to absorption from the X doublet Sigma+ state to the C doublet Sigma+ state of the K-He quasimolecule. The accurate measurements of the line profiles in the present work will sharply constrain future calculations of potential energy surfaces and transition dipole moments correlating to the asymptotes He-K(5p), He-K(5s), and He-K(3d).Comment: 2 figure

Towards simulations of fuel rod behaviour during severe accidents by coupling TRANSURANUS with SCIANTIX and MFPR-F

Among the applications of the multiscale modelling approach in nuclear fuel rod performance, the coupling of integral thermo-mechanical fuel performance codes with lower-length meso-scale modules is of great interest. This strategy allows to overcome correlation-based approaches with mechanistic ones and test their application in accidental conditions. In this work, we explore the coupling between the TRANSURANUS fuel performance code and two meso-scale modules for fission gas/product behaviour: MFPR-F and SCIANTIX. These modules, coupled within TRANSURANUS, are assessed against the IFA-650.10 loss-of-coolant accident test to analyse their overall impact and highlight future developments toward mechanistic modelling of fission gas during accident scenarios

Force and energy dissipation variations in non-contact atomic force spectroscopy on composite carbon nanotube systems

UHV dynamic force and energy dissipation spectroscopy in non-contact atomic force microscopy were used to probe specific interactions with composite systems formed by encapsulating inorganic compounds inside single-walled carbon nanotubes. It is found that forces due to nano-scale van der Waals interaction can be made to decrease by combining an Ag core and a carbon nanotube shell in the Ag@SWNT system. This specific behaviour was attributed to a significantly different effective dielectric function compared to the individual constituents, evaluated using a simple core-shell optical model. Energy dissipation measurements showed that by filling dissipation increases, explained here by softening of C-C bonds resulting in a more deformable nanotube cage. Thus, filled and unfilled nanotubes can be discriminated based on force and dissipation measurements. These findings have two different implications for potential applications: tuning the effective optical properties and tuning the interaction force for molecular absorption by appropriately choosing the filling with respect to the nanotube.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figure

Is metal theft committed by organized crime groups, and why does it matter?

Using the example of metal theft in the United Kingdom, this study used mixed methods to evaluate the accuracy of police estimates of the involvement of organised crime groups (OCGs) in crime. Police estimate that 20-30% of metal theft is committed by OCGs, but this study found that only 0.5% of metal thieves had previous convictions for offences related to OCGs, that only 1.3% were linked to OCGs by intelligence information, that metal thieves typically offended close to their homes and that almost no metal thefts involved sophisticated offence methods. It appears that police may over-estimate the involvement of OCGs in some types of crime. The reasons for and consequences of this over-estimation are discussed

Final Interpretation Report of the PHEBUS test FPT0: Bundle Aspects

In this paper, the actual status of understanding of the dominant bundle degradation processes is presented. Here, mainly the results reported in the last years in the Bundle Interpretation Circles organised by JRC/IE and IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Cadarache) are summarised. For the extensive and detailed computational analyses the commonly used severe accident codes such as ICARE, MELCOR, SCDAP/RELAP and ATHLET-CD are used. For the analysis of fission product release from the FPT0 bundle, specific codes such as SVECHA and XMPR were used as well.JRC.F.4-Nuclear design safet

Integrated Genomic Analysis Implicates Haploinsufficiency of Multiple Chromosome 5q31.2 Genes in De Novo Myelodysplastic Syndromes Pathogenesis

Deletions spanning chromosome 5q31.2 are among the most common recurring cytogenetic abnormalities detectable in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Prior genomic studies have suggested that haploinsufficiency of multiple 5q31.2 genes may contribute to MDS pathogenesis. However, this hypothesis has never been formally tested. Therefore, we designed this study to systematically and comprehensively evaluate all 28 chromosome 5q31.2 genes and directly test whether haploinsufficiency of a single 5q31.2 gene may result from a heterozygous nucleotide mutation or microdeletion. We selected paired tumor (bone marrow) and germline (skin) DNA samples from 46 de novo MDS patients (37 without a cytogenetic 5q31.2 deletion) and performed total exonic gene resequencing (479 amplicons) and array comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). We found no somatic nucleotide changes in the 46 MDS samples, and no cytogenetically silent 5q31.2 deletions in 20/20 samples analyzed by array CGH. Twelve novel single nucleotide polymorphisms were discovered. The mRNA levels of 7 genes in the commonly deleted interval were reduced by 50% in CD34+ cells from del(5q) MDS samples, and no gene showed complete loss of expression. Taken together, these data show that small deletions and/or point mutations in individual 5q31.2 genes are not common events in MDS, and implicate haploinsufficiency of multiple genes as the relevant genetic consequence of this common deletion