Towards new tools for refined management of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma under systemic therapy: Some enthusiasm with a word of caution

n/

The perceived ability of gastroenterologists, hepatologists and surgeons can bias medical decision making

Medical errors are a troubling issue and physicians should be careful to scrutinize their own decisions, remaining open to the possibility that they may be wrong. Even so, doctors may still be overconfident. A survey was here conducted to test how medical experience and self-confidence can affect physicians working in the specific clinical area. Potential participants were contacted through personalized emails and invited to contribute to the survey. The \u201crisk-intelligence\u201d test consists of 50 statements about general knowledge in which participants were asked to indicate how likely they thought that each statement was true or false. The risk-intelligence quotient (RQ), a measure of self-confidence, varies between 0 and 100. The higher the RQ score, the better the confidence in personal knowledge. To allow for a representation of 1000 physicians, the sample size was calculated as 278 respondents. A total of 1334 individual emails were sent to reach 278 respondents. A control group of 198 medical students were also invited, of them, 54 responded to the survey. The mean RQ (SD)of physicians was 61.1 (11.4) and that of students was 52.6 (9.9). Assuming age as indicator of knowledge, it was observed that physicians 6434 years had a mean RQ of 59.1 (10.1); those of 35\u201342 years had 61.0 (11.0); in those of 43\u201351 years increased to 62.9 (12.2); reached a plateau of 63.0 (11.5) between 52\u201359 years and decreased to 59.6 (12.1) in respondents 6560 years (r2:0.992). Doctors overestimate smaller probabilities and under-estimate higher probabilities. Specialists in gastroenterology and hepato-biliary diseases suffer from some degree of self-confidence bias, potentially leading to medical errors. Approaches aimed at ameliorating the self-judgment should be promoted more widely in medical education

Improved survival prediction and comparison of prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

BACKGROUND: The 'Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC' (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials, but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction. METHODS: Patients treated with sorafenib for HCC at 5 tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of 4 centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models. RESULTS: The PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the 4 risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n=615 in training set, n=305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-fetoprotein, and macrovascular invasion, extrahepatic spread and largest tumour size on imaging. Both PROSASH and PROSASH-II showed improved discrimination (C-index 0.62 and 0.63, respectively) compared with existing prognostic scores (C-index ≤0.59). CONCLUSIONS: In HCC patients treated with sorafenib, individualized prediction of survival and risk group stratification using baseline prognostic and predictive parameters with the PROSASH model was validated. The refined PROSASH-II model performed at least as good with fewer and more objective parameters. PROSASH-II can be used as a tool for tailored treatment of HCC in daily practice and to define pre-planned subgroups for future studies

Improved Survival after Transarterial Radioembolisation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Gives the Procedure Added Value

Background: Transarterial Radioembolisation (TARE) requires multidisciplinary experience and skill to be effective. The aim of this study was to identify determinants of survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), focusing on learning curves, technical advancements, patient selection and subsequent therapies. Methods: From 2005 to 2020, 253 patients were treated. TARE results achieved in an initial period (2005-2011) were compared to those obtained in a more recent period (2012-2020). To isolate the effect of the treatment period, differences between the two periods were balanced using "entropy balance". Results: Of the 253 patients, 68 were treated before 2012 and 185 after 2012. In the second period, patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) score of 1 (p = 0.025) less frequently, less liver involvement (p = 0.006) and a lesser degree of vascular invasion (p = 0.019). The median overall survival (OS) of patients treated before 2012 was 11.2 months and that of patients treated beginning in 2012 was 25.7 months. After reweighting to isolate the effect of the treatment period, the median OS of patients before 2012 increased to 16 months. Conclusions: Better patient selection, refinement of technique and adoption of personalised dosimetry improved survival after TARE. Conversely, sorafenib after TARE did not impact life expectancy

Years of life that could be saved from prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes premature death and loss of life expectancy worldwide. Its primary and secondary prevention can result in a significant number of years of life saved. AIM: To assess how many years of life are lost after HCC diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 5346 patients with first HCC diagnosis were used to estimate lifespan and number of years of life lost after tumour onset, using a semi-parametric extrapolation having as reference an age-, sex- and year-of-onset-matched population derived from national life tables. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2014, HCC lead to an average of 11.5 years-of-life lost for each patient. The youngest age-quartile group (18-61 years) had the highest number of years-of-life lost, representing approximately 41% of the overall benefit obtainable from prevention. Advancements in HCC management have progressively reduced the number of years-of-life lost from 12.6 years in 1986-1999, to 10.7 in 2000-2006 and 7.4 years in 2007-2014. Currently, an HCC diagnosis when a single tumour <2 cm results in 3.7 years-of-life lost while the diagnosis when a single tumour 65 2 cm or 2/3 nodules still within the Milan criteria, results in 5.0 years-of-life lost, representing the loss of only approximately 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively, of the entire lifespan from birth. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence results in the loss of a considerable number of years-of-life, especially for younger patients. In recent years, the increased possibility of effectively treating this tumour has improved life expectancy, thus reducing years-of-life lost

External validation of surrogate indices of fatty liver in the general population: The Bagnacavallo study

We externally validated the fatty liver index (FLI), the lipid accumulation product (LAP), the hepatic steatosis index (HSI), and the Zhejiang University index (ZJU) for the diagnosis of fatty liver (FL) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the general population. The validation was performed on 2159 citizens of the town of Bagnacavallo (Ravenna, Italy). Calibration was evaluated by calculating the calibration slope and intercept and by inspecting calibration plots; discrimination was evaluated using the c-statistic. The average calibration slope was 1 and the average intercept was 0 for all combinations of outcomes and indices. For the diagnosis of FL, the c-statistic was 0.85 for FLI, 0.83 for ZJU, 0.82 for HSI, and 0.80 for LAP; for the diagnosis of NAFLD, the c-statistic was 0.77 for FLI, 0.76 for ZJU, 0.75 for HSI, and 0.74 for LAP. All indices were strongly correlated with each other. In conclusion, FLI, LAP, HSI, and ZJU perform similarly well to diagnose FL and NAFLD in the Bagnacavallo population, even if FLI has a small advantage as discrimination is concerned

REDISCOVER guidelines for borderline-resectable and locally advanced pancreatic cancer: management algorithm, unanswered questions, and future perspectives

The REDISCOVER guidelines present 34 recommendations for the selection and perioperative care of borderline-resectable (BR-PDAC) and locally advanced ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (LA-PDAC). These guidelines represent a significant shift from previous approaches, prioritizing tumor biology over anatomical features as the primary indication for resection. Condensed herein, they provide a practical management algorithm for clinical practice. However, the guidelines also highlight the need to redefine LA-PDAC to align with modern treatment strategies and to solve some contradictions within the current definition, such as grouping "difficult" and "impossible" to resect tumors together. Furthermore, the REDISCOVER guidelines highlight several areas requiring urgent research. These include the resection of the superior mesenteric artery, the management strategies for patients with LA-PDAC who are fit for surgery but unable to receive multi-agent neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the approach to patients with LA-PDAC who are fit for surgery but demonstrate high serum Ca 19.9 levels even after neoadjuvant treatment, and the optimal timing and number of chemotherapy cycles prior to surgery. Additionally, the role of primary chemoradiotherapy versus chemotherapy alone in LA-PDAC, the timing of surgical resection post-neoadjuvant/primary chemoradiotherapy, the efficacy of ablation therapies, and the management of oligometastasis in patients with LA-PDAC warrant investigation. Given the limited evidence for many issues, refining existing management strategies is imperative. The establishment of the REDISCOVER registry (https://rediscover.unipi.it/) offers promise of a unified research platform to advance understanding and improve the management of BR-PDAC and LA-PDAC

Improved survival prediction and comparison of prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

Background: The ‘Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC’ (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction. Methods: Patients treated with sorafenib for HCC at five tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of four centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models. Results: The PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the four risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n = 615 in training set, n = 305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-foetoprotein, and macrovascul

Metabolic disorders across hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy

BACKGROUND: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology. METHODS: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features. RESULTS: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD &lt; 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival.Background: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology. Methods: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features. Results: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P&nbsp;=.021), larger tumours (P&nbsp;=.038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P&nbsp;=.007] and MELD&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;10 [P&nbsp;=.003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P&nbsp;=.024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P&nbsp;=.010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P&nbsp;=.012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P&nbsp;=.046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival. Conclusions: Our \u201creal world\u201d study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival

Overview of prognostic systems for hepatocellular carcinoma and ITA.LI.CA external validation of MESH and CNLC classifications

Prognostic assessment in patients with HCC remains an extremely difficult clinical task due to the complexity of this cancer where tumour characteristics interact with degree of liver dysfunction, patient general health status, and a large span of available treatment options. Several prognostic systems have been proposed in the last three decades, both from the Asian and European/North American countries. Prognostic scores, such as the CLIP score and the recent MESH score, have been generated on a solid statistical basis from real life population data, while staging systems, such as the BCLC scheme and the recent CNLC classification, have been created by experts according to recent HCC prognostic evidences from the literature. A third category includes combined prognostic systems that can be used both as prognostic scores and staging systems. A recent example is the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system including either a prognostic score and a simplified staging system. This review focuses first on an overview of the main prognostic systems for HCC classified according to the above three categories, and, second, on a comprehensive description of the methodology required for a correct comparison between different systems in terms of prognostic performance. In this second section the main studies in the literature comparing different prognostic systems are described in detail. Lastly, a formal comparison between the last prognostic systems proposed for each of the above three categories is performed using a large Italian database including 6882 HCC patients in order to concretely apply the comparison rules previously described