Moving from medical to health systems classifications of deaths : extending verbal autopsy to collect information on the circumstances of mortality

Acknowledgements The authors would also like to acknowledge the field staff at the MRC, SA/Wits Agincourt Unit, particularly Sizzy Ngobeni. The authors also acknowledge Drs Malin Eriksson and Edward Fottrell at Umeå Centre for Global Health Research *UCGHR) who contributed to the development of the SF-VA indicators, Dr Nawi Ng at UCGHR who advised on the cause of death categories, and Dr Kerstin Edin at UCGHR who provided comments on the manuscript categories, and Dr Kerstin Edin who provided comments on the manuscript. Funding A Health Systems Research Initiative Development Grant from the UK Department for International Development (DFID), Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Medical Research Council (MRC (and the Wellcome Trust (MR/N005597/1) funds the research presented in this paper. Support for the Agincourt HDSS including verbal autopsies was provided by The Wellcome Trust, UK (grants 058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z; 085477/B/08/Z), and the University of the Witwatersrand and Medical Research Council, South Africa.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Misreporting of Patient Outcomes in the South African National HIV Treatment Database: Consequences for Programme Planning, Monitoring, and Evaluation.

Background: Monitoring progress toward global treatment targets using HIV programme data in sub-Saharan Africa has proved challenging. Constraints in routine data collection and reporting can lead to biased estimates of treatment outcomes. In 2010, South Africa introduced an electronic patient monitoring system for HIV patient visits, TIER.Net. We compare treatment status and outcomes recorded in TIER.Net to outcomes ascertained through detailed record review and tracing in order to assess discrepancies and biases in retention and mortality rates. Methods: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in north-eastern South Africa is served by eight public primary healthcare facilities. Since 2014, HIV patient visits are logged electronically at these clinics, with patient records individually linked to their HDSS record. These data were used to generate a list of patients >90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit and deemed lost to follow-up (LTFU). Patient outcomes were ascertained through a review of the TIER.Net database, physical patient files, registers kept by two non-government organizations that assist with patient tracing, cross-referencing with the HDSS records and supplementary physical tracing. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patient outcomes reported in TIER.Net to their outcome ascertained in the study. Results: Of 1,074 patients that were eligible for this analysis, TIER.Net classified 533 (49.6%) as LTFU, 80 (7.4%) as deceased, and 186 (17.3%) as transferred out. TIER.Net misclassified 36% of patient outcomes, overestimating LTFU and underestimating mortality and transfers out. TIER.Net missed 40% of deaths and 43% of transfers out. Patients categorized as LTFU in TIER.Net were more likely to be misclassified than patients classified as deceased or transferred out. Discussion: Misclassification of patient outcomes in TIER.Net has consequences for programme forecasting, monitoring and evaluation. Undocumented transfers accounted for the majority of misclassification, suggesting that the transfer process between clinics should be improved for more accurate reporting of patient outcomes. Processes that lead to correct classification of patient status including patient tracing should be strengthened. Clinics could cross-check all available data sources before classifying patients as LTFU. Programme evaluators and modelers could consider using correction factors to improve estimates of outcomes from TIER.Net

Sexual Behaviors and HIV Status: A Population-Based Study Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa

Objective: To identify the unmet needs for HIV prevention among older adults in rural South Africa. Methods: We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 5059 men and women aged 40 years and older from the study Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities (HAALSI), which was carried out in the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. We estimated the prevalence of HIV (laboratory-confirmed and self-reported) and key sexual behaviors by age and sex. We compared sexual behavior profiles across HIV status categories with and without age–sex standardization. Results: HIV prevalence was very high among HAALSI participants (23%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21 to 24), with no sex differences. Recent sexual activity was common (56%, 95% CI: 55 to 58) across all HIV status categories. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%, 95% CI: 14 to 17), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%, 95% CI: 22 to 33), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%, 95% CI: 70 to 80). Casual sex and multiple partnerships were reported at moderate levels, with slightly higher estimates among HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative adults. Differences by HIV status remained after age–sex standardization. Conclusions: Older HIV-positive adults in an HIV hyperendemic community of rural South Africa report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV transmission risk. Older HIV-negative adults report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV acquisition risk. Prevention initiatives tailored to the particular prevention needs of older adults are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.The HAALSI study was funded by the NIA of the NIH (P01 AG041710). HAALSI is nested within the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, with funding from Wellcome Trust (058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z; 085477/B/08/Z), University of the Witwatersrand, and Medical Research Council, South Africa. T.W.B. received funding from the Wellcome Trust and NICHD of NIH (R01-HD084233) and NIAID of NIH (R01-AI124389 and R01-AI112339)

Performance of self-reported HIV status in determining true HIV status among older adults in rural South Africa: a validation study

Introduction: In South Africa, older adults make up a growing proportion of people living with HIV. HIV programmes are likely to reach older South Africans in home-based interventions where testing is not always feasible. We evaluate the accuracy of self-reported HIV status, which may provide useful information for targeting interventions or offer an alternative to biomarker testing. Methods: Data were taken from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) baseline survey, which was conducted in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. A total of 5059 participants aged ≥40 years were interviewed from 2014 to 2015. Self-reported HIV status and dried bloodspots for HIV biomarker testing were obtained during at-home interviews. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for self-reported status compared to “gold standard” biomarker results. Log-binomial regression explored associations between demographic characteristics, antiretroviral therapy (ART) status and sensitivity of self-report. Results: Most participants (93%) consented to biomarker testing. Of those with biomarker results, 50.9% reported knowing their HIV status and accurately reported it. PPV of self-report was 94.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 92.0–96.0), NPV was 87.2% (95% CI: 86.2–88.2), sensitivity was 51.2% (95% CI: 48.2–54.3) and specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.7–99.4). Participants on ART were more likely to report their HIV-positive status, and participants reporting false-negatives were more likely to have older HIV tests. Conclusions: The majority of participants were willing to share their HIV status. False-negative reports were largely explained by lack of testing, suggesting HIV stigma is retreating in this setting, and that expansion of HIV testing and retesting is still needed in this population. In HIV interventions where testing is not possible, self-reported status should be considered as a routine first step to establish HIV status.This study was funded by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) [P01-AG041710] and is nested within the MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt) and funded by Wellcome Trust [058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z; 085477/B/08/Z] with important contributions from the University of the Witwatersrand and the South African Medical Research Council. Till Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. He is also supported by the Wellcome Trust, the European Commission, the Clinton Health Access Initiative and NICHD of NIH [R01-HD084233], NIAID of NIH [R01-AI124389 and R01-AI112339] and FIC of NIH [D43-TW009775]

Depression and incident HIV in adolescent girls and young women in HPTN 068:Targets for prevention and mediating factors

Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2019. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa is a critical public health problem. We assessed whether depressive symptoms in AGYW were longitudinally associated with incident HIV, and identified potential social and behavioral mediators. Data came from a randomized trial of a cash transfer conditional on school attendance among AGYW (ages 13-21 years) in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, during 2011-2017. We estimated the relationship between depressive symptoms and cumulative HIV incidence using a linear probability model, and we assessed mediation using inverse odds ratio weighting. Inference was calculated using the nonparametric bootstrap. AGYW with depressive symptoms had higher cumulative incidence of HIV compared with those without (risk difference = 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 7.0). The strongest individual mediators of this association were parental monitoring and involvement (indirect effect = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.0, 3.3) and reporting a partner would hit her if she asked him to wear a condom (indirect effect = 1.5, 95% CI: -0.3, 3.3). All mediators jointly explained two-thirds (indirect effect = 2.4, 95% CI: 0.2, 4.5) of the association between depressive symptoms and HIV incidence. Interventions addressing mental health might reduce risk of acquiring HIV among AGYW

An investigation of factors associated with the health and well-being of HIV-infected or HIV-affected older people in rural South Africa

BackgroundDespite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people's health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. MethodsData were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. ResultsMedian age of the sample was 60 years (range 50-94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08-0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women's adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men's; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and Conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system. <br/

Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population:findings from the HAALSI cohort study

Background: Frailty is a key predictor of death and dependency, yet little is known about frailty in sub-Saharan Africa despite rapid population ageing. We describe the prevalence and correlates of phenotypic frailty using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community cohort. Methods: We analysed data from rural South Africans aged 40 and over. We used low grip strength, slow gait speed, low body mass index, and combinations of self-reported exhaustion, decline in health, low physical activity and high self-reported sedentariness to derive nine variants of a phenotypic frailty score. Each frailty category was compared with self-reported health, subjective wellbeing, impairment in activities of daily living and the presence of multimorbidity. Cox regression analyses were used to compare subsequent all-cause mortality for non-frail (score 0), pre-frail (score 1–2) and frail participants (score 3+). Results: Five thousand fifty nine individuals (mean age 61.7 years, 2714 female) were included in the analyses. The nine frailty score variants yielded a range of frailty prevalences (5.4% to 13.2%). For all variants, rates were higher in women than in men, and rose steeply with age. Frailty was associated with worse subjective wellbeing, and worse self-reported health. Both prefrailty and frailty were associated with a higher risk of death during a mean 17 month follow up for all score variants (hazard ratios 1.29 to 2.41 for pre-frail vs non-frail; hazard ratios 2.65 to 8.91 for frail vs non-frail). Conclusions: Phenotypic frailty could be measured in this older South African population, and was associated with worse health, wellbeing and earlier death

Burden of stroke attributable to selected lifestyle risk factors in rural South Africa

Background: Rural South Africa (SA) is undergoing a rapid health transition characterized by increases in non-communicable diseases; stroke in particular. Knowledge of the relative contribution of modifiable risk factors on disease occurrence is needed for public health prevention efforts and community-oriented health promotion. Our aim was to estimate the burden of stroke in rural SA that is attributable to high blood pressure, excess weight and high blood glucose using World Health Organization's comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework. Methods: We estimated current exposure distributions of the risk factors in rural SA using 2010 data from the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Relative risks of stroke per unit of exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used data from the Agincourt HDSS to estimate age-, sex-, and stroke specific deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). We estimated the proportion of the years of life lost (YLL) and DALY loss attributable to the risk factors and incorporate uncertainty intervals into these estimates. Results: Overall, 38 % of the documented stroke burden was due to high blood pressure (12 % males; 26 % females). This translated to 520 YLL per year (95 % CI: 325-678) and 540 DALYs (CI: 343-717). Excess Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as responsible for 20 % of the stroke burden (3.5 % males; 16 % females). This translated to 260 YLLs (CI: 199-330) and 277 DALYs (CI: 211-350). Burden was disproportionately higher in young females when BMI was assessed. Conclusions: High blood pressure and excess weight, which both have effective interventions, are responsible for a significant proportion of the stroke burden in rural SA; the burden varies across age and sex sub-groups. The most effective way forward to reduce the stroke burden requires both population wide policies that have an impact across the age spectra and targeted (health promotion/disease prevention) interventions on women and young people