La politique commerciale brésilienne, le MERCOSUR et le libre-échange dans les Amériques

Après avoir présenté la stratégie d'insertion multilatérale du Brésil, qui lui donne une certaine indépendance à l'égard des grandes puissances, l'article analyse les fondements de l'opposition brésilienne au projet de libre-échange continental proposé par les États-Unis. Le texte présente tout d'abord la stratégie régionale du Brésil, qui s'articule autour du MERCOSUR et qui vise à développer les bases de la sécurité économique du pays à partir du développement de relations privilégiées avec ses voisins, dans le cadre d'un projet visant à restreindre la présence des États-Unis en Amérique du Sud. Les réticences que formule le secteur privé local à l'égard d'une éventuelle ZLÉA sont ensuite abordées afin de préciser l'origine de l'opposition de Brasilia. Le texte se termine sur une discussion de l'évolution récente des rapports régionaux dans le Cône sud, question qui constitue la principale faiblesse de la stratégie brésilienne à l'égard du projet commercial des États-Unis.After having introduced Brazil's multilateral strategy of insertion in the world economy, this article explains the foundation of Brazil's opposition to the hemispheric free trade project proposed by the United States. First, this text introduces the brazilian regional strategy, which is built around the deepening of the Mercosur and aims at developing the bases of Brazil's economic security from the privileged relationships the country shares with Us neighbours; this, in turn, requires that the american influence in South America be weakened. Second, we find another source of opposition in the lukewarm attitude toward the FTAA expressed by the Brazilian private sector. We conclude with a discussion of the latest developments in the regional relationships within the Southern Cone, since those relationships constitute the main weakness in the Brazilian strategy toward the American free trade project

A renormalization group model for the stick-slip behavior of faults

A fault which is treated as an array of asperities with a prescribed statistical distribution of strengths is described. For a linear array the stress is transferred to a single adjacent asperity and for a two dimensional array to three ajacent asperities. It is shown that the solutions bifurcate at a critical applied stress. At stresses less than the critical stress virtually no asperities fail on a large scale and the fault is locked. At the critical stress the solution bifurcates and asperity failure cascades away from the nucleus of failure. It is found that the stick slip behavior of most faults can be attributed to the distribution of asperities on the fault. The observation of stick slip behavior on faults rather than stable sliding, why the observed level of seismicity on a locked fault is very small, and why the stress on a fault is less than that predicted by a standard value of the coefficient of friction are outlined

Earthquake forecasting and its verification

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. These forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI) forecast based on the hypothesis that future earthquakes will occur where earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.Comment: 10(+1) pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Nonlinearl Processes in Geophysics on 5 August 200

Maximizing Opportunity, Minimizing Risk: Aligning Law, Policy and Practice to Strengthen Work-Integrated Learning in Ontario

A broad consensus is emerging in Ontario and at the federal level in favour of expanding postsecondary students’ access to experiential or “work-integrated learning” (WIL) opportunities. One of the challenges in implementing this vision is navigating the complex legal status of students as they leave campus and enter workplaces in a wide range of industries and roles. This study aims to support these efforts by mapping the current legal landscape for WIL to identify both risks and opportunities for students, post-secondary institutions (PSIs) and placement hosts alike (referred to collectively in this study as “WIL participants”). It makes recommendations to streamline, clarify and strengthen key legal frameworks and improve institutional practices in managing WIL programs and their legal implications. WIL includes “a variety of applied and work-based experiences through which students are able both to contextualize their learning and gain relevant work experience” (PhillipsKPA, 2014), including co-op, internships and applied research projects. This study focuses on the law with respect to off-campus placements completed as part of a university or college program, as distinct from broader questions about the regulation of internships or training positions in the labour market as a whole. The potential benefits of WIL are often framed in terms of human capital development. WIL is identified as a means of building workforce capabilities, as well as the skills and individual prospects of students as members of the labour force (Australian Collaborative Education Network [ACEN], 2015). However, not all those who have studied WIL are equally convinced of its benefits, at least as it is currently delivered. The human capital perspective stands in contrast with a more critical stream of analysis that associates WIL with the rise of precarious employment. A further concern is that WIL opportunities are distributed unequally among students in ways that reflect and reinforce larger labour market inequities. This report keeps both perspectives in mind and analyzes the legal frameworks surrounding WIL in Ontario to identify ways of ameliorating these concerns and promoting WIL programs that deliver real benefits. The study examines two primary research questions: (1) How are legal issues currently impacting WIL programs in Ontario? (2) What steps could be taken to help legal frameworks and processes align more closely with the goal of expanding the availability of quality WIL programs and opportunities? We addressed these questions through a combination of in-depth qualitative interviews with WIL experts in both legal and non-legal roles and a review of relevant provincial and federal legislation and regulations, as well as legal cases dating back to 1990. We also reviewed secondary literature on WIL in Canada and in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. As well, the report analyzes Canadian tax expenditures designed to support WIL to assess the size and scope of tax-delivered investments in these programs

High-Speed Burring with and without the Use of Surgical Adjuvants in the Intralesional Management of Giant Cell Tumor of Bone: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Local control rates for Giant Cell Tumor of Bone (GCT) have been reported in a large number of retrospective series. However, there remains a lack of consensus with respect to the need for a surgical adjuvant when intralesional curettage is performed. We have systematically reviewed the literature and identified six studies in which two groups from the same patient cohort were treated with intralesional curettage and high-speed burring with or without a chemical or thermal adjuvant. Studies were evaluated for quality and pooled data was analyzed using the fixed effects model. Data from 387 patients did not indicate improved local control with the use of surgical adjuvants. Given the available data, we conclude that surgical adjuvants are not required when meticulous tumor removal is performed

Changes in Metallothionein Levels in Freshwater Mussels Exposed to Urban Wastewaters: Effects from Exposure to Heavy Metals?

Municipal effluents are complex mixtures of compounds such as heavy metals, aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, and micro-organisms and are released in aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to verify whether changes in metallothioneins (MT) were associated with the accumulation of labile metals in tissue of freshwater mussels exposed to the dispersion plume of a major municipal effluent. Mussels were placed in experimental cages deployed at sites 1.5 km upstream, 8 km downstream and 12 km downstream of the outfall of a major, primary-treated municipal effluent in the St. Lawrence River (Québec, Canada). Mussels were analysed for MT and labile zinc levels in their gonads, gills and digestive glands. Lipogenic enzyme (isocitrate and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase) and arachidonic acid cyclooxygenase (COX) activities were also measured in gonad and gill tissues. Although MT was induced in all the tissues examined, the results showed that labile zinc levels were significantly reduced in gill and gonad tissues, with an increase observed only at the 12 km downstream site in the digestive gland. COX activity was readily induced in gills and gonads. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity was reduced at both downstream sites, but isocitrate dehydrogenase activity was significantly induced at the farthest (12 km) site. Analysis of covariance revealed that MT levels in gills were more influenced by COX activity than with distance in the dispersion plume and was negatively correlated with labile zinc levels. In conclusion, MT induction was inversely related to the levels of labile zinc but positively so with the inflammation biomarker COX. Hence, the induction of MT in mussels exposed to the municipal effluent of a large city appears to be associated with either inflammatory processes or as compensation for the loss of labile essential metals. We propose that the simple and complimentary parameters of labile zinc and COX evaluations be used to link MT induction with divalent heavy metal exposure in environmental studies dealing with various type of contaminants in such complex contaminant mixture effluents