Hepatitis-B virus infection and the dental profession: a survey in the Witwatersrand area

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Additive Intensity Regression Models in Corporate Default Analysis

We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of model checking techniques to identify misspecifications. In our final model, we find evidence of time-variation in the effects of distance-to-default and short-to-long term debt. Also we identify interactions between distance-to-default and other covariates, and the quick ratio covariate is significant. None of our macroeconomic covariates are significant

The prevalence of human papillomavirus infections and associated risk factors in men-who-have-sex-with-men in Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract Background We investigated the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and associated behavioural risk factors in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) attending a clinical service in Cape Town, South Africa. Methods MSM were enrolled at the Ivan Toms Centre for Men’s Health in Cape Town. A psychosocial and sexual behavioral risk questionnaire was completed for each participant and urine, oro-pharyngeal and anal swabs were collected for HPV testing using the Linear Array HPV Genotyping Test. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine sexual risk factors associated with HPV infection at the three anatomical sites. Results The median age of all 200 participants was 32 years (IQR 26-39.5), of which 31.0 % were black, 31.5 % mixed race/coloured and 35.5 % white. The majority of the participants (73.0 %) had completed high school, 42.0 % had a tertiary level qualification and 69.0 % were employed. HPV genotypes were detected in 72.8 % [95 % CI: 65.9–79.0 %], 11.5 % [95 % CI: 7.4–16.8 %] and 15.3 % [95 % CI: 10.5–21.2 %] of anal, oro-pharyngeal and urine specimens, respectively. Prevalence of high-risk (HR)-HPV types was 57.6 % [95 % CI: 50.3–64.7 %] in anal samples, 7.5 % [95 % CI: 4.3–12.1 %] in oro-pharyngeal samples and 7.9 % [95 % CI: 4.5–12.7 %] in urine, with HPV-16 being the most common HR-HPV type detected at all sites. HPV-6/11/16/18 was detected in 40.3 % [95 % CI: 33.3–47.6 %], 4.5 % [95 % CI: 2.1–8.4 %] and 3.2 % [95 % CI: 1.2–6.8 %] of anal, oro-pharyngeal and urine samples, respectively. Multiple HPV types were more common in the anal canal of MSM while single HPV types constituted the majority of HPV infections in the oropharynx and urine. Among the 88 MSM (44.0 %) that were HIV positive, 91.8 % [95 % CI: 83.8–96.6 %] had an anal HPV infection, 81.2 % [95 % CI: 71.2–88.8 %] had anal HR-HPV and 85.9 % [95 % CI: 76.6–92.5 %] had multiple anal HPV types. Having sex with men only, engaging in group sex in lifetime, living with HIV and practising receptive anal intercourse were the only factors independently associated with having any anal HPV infection. Conclusions Anal HPV infections were common among MSM in Cape Town with the highest HPV burden among HIV co-infected MSM, men who have sex with men only and those that practiced receptive anal intercourse. Behavioural intervention strategies and the possible roll-out of HPV vaccines among all boys are urgently needed to address the high prevalence of HPV and HIV co-infections among MSM in South Africa

Seasonal and interannual variability in wind field and commercial catch rates of austroglossus pectoralis (soleidae)

The impact of deviations in the direction and strength of the wind field on the spatial, seasonal and interannual variability in catch rates of Agulhas sole Austroglossus pectoralis was investigated. Temporal variabilityin the wind cycle on the Agulhas Bank during the period 1981–1996 was deduced mainly from trends in the pressure gradient, measured from south of Cape Agulhas (35°S) to the region of westwind drift (40°S).Because interannual deviations in the catch rates differed between seasons, catch rates were assessed by season. Coastal catch rates of Agulhas sole between Cape Agulhas and Cape Infanta were high in autumn and winter, when offshore north-westerly winds prevailed, and low in spring and late summer, when onshore south-easterly winds dominated. There was often a secondary peak in catch rates in November–December,coincident with a midsummer change in the pressure gradient. Between the period 1982 and 1996, catch rates in autumn and early winter (April–July) were highest during years when the winter north-westerly winds were strongest (r2 = 0.62, p < 0.01). Catch rates usually peaked in May–June. This pattern changed in some years, depending on the timing and rate of change to winter wind conditions. Seasonal and interannual fluctuations in catch rate are associated with deviations in the wind field, but the  mechanism whereby this  effect is mediated remains unknown

Tayside Screening For Cardiac Events (TASCFORCE) study : a prospective cardiovascular risk screening study

This study was funded by Chest Heart and Stroke (Scotland) and the Souter Foundation.Purpose: Risk factor-based models struggle to accurately predict the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the level of the individual. Ways of identifying people with low predicted risk who will develop CVD would allow stratified advice and support informed treatment decisions about the initiation or adjustment of preventive medication, and this is the aim of this prospective cohort study. Participants: The Tayside Screening for Cardiac Events (TASCFORCE) study recruited men and women aged≥40 years, free from known CVD, with a predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease<20%. If B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was greater than their gender median, participants were offered a whole-body contrast-enhanced MRI (WBCE-MRI) scan (cardiac imaging, whole-body angiography to determine left ventricular parameters, delayed gadolinium enhancement, atheroma burden). Blood, including DNA, was stored for future biomarker assays. Participants are being followed up using electronic record-linkage cardiovascular outcomes. Findings to date: 4423 (1740, 39.3% men) were recruited. Mean age was 52.3 years with a median BNP of 7.50 ng/L and 15.30 ng/L for men and women, respectively. 602 had a predicted 10-year risk of 10%-19.9%, with the remainder<10%. Age, female sex, ex-smoking status, lower heart rate, higher high-density lipoprotein and lower total cholesterol were independently associated with higher log10 BNP levels. Mean left ventricular mass was 129.2 g and 87.0 g in men and women, respectively. Future plans: The TASCFORCE study is investigating the ability of a screening programme, using BNP and WBCE-MRI, at the time of enrolment, to evaluate prediction of CVD in a population at low/intermediate risk. Blood stored for future biomarker analyses will allow testing/development of novel biomarkers. We believe this could be a new UK Framingham study allowing study for many years to come. Clinical Trial Registration: ISRCTN38976321.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Whole body cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to stratify symptomatic and asymptomatic atherosclerotic burden in patients with isolated cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to use whole body cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (WB CVMR) to assess the heart and arterial network in a single examination, so as to describe the burden of atherosclerosis and subclinical disease in participants with symptomatic single site vascular disease. METHODS: 64 patients with a history of symptomatic single site vascular disease (38 coronary artery disease (CAD), 9 cerebrovascular disease, 17 peripheral arterial disease (PAD)) underwent whole body angiogram and cardiac MR in a 3 T scanner. The arterial tree was subdivided into 31 segments and each scored according to the degree of stenosis. From this a standardised atheroma score (SAS) was calculated. Cine and late gadolinium enhancement images of the left ventricle were obtained. RESULTS: Asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease with greater than 50 % stenosis in arteries other than that responsible for their presenting complain was detected in 37 % of CAD, 33 % of cerebrovascular and 47 % of PAD patients. Unrecognised myocardial infarcts were observed in 29 % of PAD patients. SAS was significantly higher in PAD patients 24 (17.5-30.5) compared to CAD 4 (2–11.25) or cerebrovascular disease patients 6 (2-10) (ANCOVA p < 0.001). Standardised atheroma score positively correlated with age (β 0.36 p = 0.002), smoking status (β 0.34 p = 0.002), and LV mass (β -0.61 p = 0.001) on multiple linear regression. CONCLUSION: WB CVMR is an effective method for the stratification of cardiovascular disease. The high prevalence of asymptomatic arterial disease, and silent myocardial infarctions, particularly in the peripheral arterial disease group, demonstrates the importance of a systematic approach to the assessment of cardiovascular disease

Whole body cardiovascular MRI for the comparison of atherosclerotic burden and cardiac remodelling in healthy South Asian and European adults

Objective: To determine the feasibility of using wholebody cardiovascular MRI (WB-CVMR) to compare South Asians (SAs)-a population known to have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but paradoxically lower prevalence of peripheral arterial disease-and Western Europeans (WEs). Methods: 19 SAs and 38 age-, gender- and body mass index-matched WEs were recruited. All were aged 40 years and over, free from CVD and with a 10-year risk of CV