Tsunami risk management for crustal earthquakes and non-seismic sources in Italy

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Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019

The Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to reduce disaster risk

A New Approximate Method for Quantifying Tsunami Maximum Inundation Height Probability

Regional and global tsunami hazard analysis requires simplified and efficient methods for estimating the tsunami inundation height and its related uncertainty. One such approach is the amplification factor (AF) method. Amplification factors describe the relation between offshore wave height and the maximum inundation height, as predicted by linearized plane wave models employed for incident waves with different wave characteristics. In this study, a new amplification factor method is developed that takes into account the offshore bathymetry proximal to the coastal site. The present AFs cover the North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean (NEAM) region. The model is the first general approximate model that quantifies inundation height uncertainty. Uncertainty quantification is carried out by analyzing the inundation height variability in more than 500 high-resolution inundation simulations at six different coastal sites. The inundation simulations are undertaken with different earthquake sources in order to produce different wave period and polarity. We show that the probability density of the maximum inundation height can be modeled with a log-normal distribution, whose median is quite well predicted by the AF. It is further demonstrated that the associated maximum inundation height uncertainties are significant and must be accounted for in tsunami hazard analysis. The application to the recently developed TSUMAPS-NEAM probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is presented as a use case

The Global Risk Analysis for the 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

In May 2009, the UNISDR system published the 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2009). One component of this report consisted in a global risk analysis. This task was performed by several institutions which join their efforts during two years to achieve a global modelling of hazards. This includes new hazard models for floods, tropical cyclones, landslides, drought and tsunamis as well as re-interpretation of earthquakes hazard. It allowed for the computation of human and economical exposure. A totally new methodology was used to calibrate vulnerability by using a so- called "event per event" analysis. This allowed determining what are the socio-economical and contextual parameters that are associated with human and economical vulnerability. This new methodology allows considering the intensity of each event as well as contextual parameters in order to compute the risk for different natural hazards. Risk maps were produced for four natural hazards (i.e. floods, earthquakes, landslides and tropical cyclones). This was provided at a resolution of 1 x 1 km. This also allow for the computation of an index for comparing the risk level of different countries. Trend in risk were also studied

Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models

The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k(-2) stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model similar to 150,000 earthquakes with M-w from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world