A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

BACKGROUND: Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change

Earth's oldest mantle fabrics indicate Eoarchaean subduction

The extension of subduction processes into the Eoarchaean era (4.0-3.6 Ga) is controversial. The oldest reported terrestrial olivine, from two dunite lenses within the ~3,720 Ma Isua supracrustal belt in Greenland, record a shape-preferred orientation of olivine crystals defining a weak foliation and a well-defined lattice-preferred orientation (LPO). [001] parallel to the maximum finite elongation direction and (010) perpendicular to the foliation plane define a B-type LPO. In the modern Earth such fabrics are associated with deformation of mantle rocks in the hanging wall of subduction systems; an interpretation supported by experiments. Here we show that the presence of B-type fabrics in the studied Isua dunites is consistent with a mantle origin and a supra-subduction mantle wedge setting, the latter supported by compositional data from nearby mafic rocks. Our results provide independent microstructural data consistent with the operation of Eoarchaean subduction and indicate that microstructural analyses of ancient ultramafic rocks provide a valuable record of Archaean geodynamics

Genetic Signature of Rapid IHHNV (Infectious Hypodermal and Hematopoietic Necrosis Virus) Expansion in Wild Penaeus Shrimp Populations

Infectious hypodermal and hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV) is a widely distributed single-stranded DNA parvovirus that has been responsible for major losses in wild and farmed penaeid shrimp populations on the northwestern Pacific coast of Mexico since the early 1990's. IHHNV has been considered a slow-evolving, stable virus because shrimp populations in this region have recovered to pre-epizootic levels, and limited nucleotide variation has been found in a small number of IHHNV isolates studied from this region. To gain insight into IHHNV evolutionary and population dynamics, we analyzed IHHNV capsid protein gene sequences from 89 Penaeus shrimp, along with 14 previously published sequences. Using Bayesian coalescent approaches, we calculated a mean rate of nucleotide substitution for IHHNV that was unexpectedly high (1.39×10−4 substitutions/site/year) and comparable to that reported for RNA viruses. We found more genetic diversity than previously reported for IHHNV isolates and highly significant subdivision among the viral populations in Mexican waters. Past changes in effective number of infections that we infer from Bayesian skyline plots closely correspond to IHHNV epizootiological historical records. Given the high evolutionary rate and the observed regional isolation of IHHNV in shrimp populations in the Gulf of California, we suggest regular monitoring of wild and farmed shrimp and restriction of shrimp movement as preventative measures for future viral outbreaks

Examining Landscape Factors Influencing Relative Distribution of Mosquito Genera and Frequency of Virus Infection

Mosquito-borne infections cause some of the most debilitating human diseases, including yellow fever and malaria, yet we lack an understanding of how disease risk scales with human-driven habitat changes. We present an approach to study variation in mosquito distribution and concomitant viral infections on the landscape level. In a pilot study we analyzed mosquito distribution along a 10-km transect of a West African rainforest area, which included primary forest, secondary forest, plantations, and human settlements. Variation was observed in the abundance of Anopheles, Aedes,Culex, and Uranotaenia mosquitoes between the different habitat types. Screening of trapped mosquitoes from the different habitats led to the isolation of five uncharacterized viruses of the families Bunyaviridae, Coronaviridae, Flaviviridae, and Rhabdoviridae, as well as an unclassified virus. Polymerase chain reaction screening for these five viruses in individual mosquitoes indicated a trend toward infection with specific viruses in specific mosquito genera that differed by habitat. Based on these initial analyses, we believe that further work is indicated to investigate the impact of anthropogenic landscape changes on mosquito distribution and accompanying arbovirus infection

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes

Factors and processes shaping the population structure and distribution of genetic variation across the species range of the freshwater snail radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Background: Factors and processes shaping the population structure and spatial distribution of genetic diversity across a species' distribution range are important in determining the range limits. We comprehensively analysed the influence of recurrent and historic factors and processes on the population genetic structure, mating system and the distribution of genetic variability of the pulmonate freshwater snail Radix balthica. This analysis was based on microsatellite variation and mitochondrial haplotypes using Generalised Linear Statistical Modelling in a Model Selection framework. Results: Populations of R. balthica were found throughout North-Western Europe with range margins marked either by dispersal barriers or the presence of other Radix taxa. Overall, the population structure was characterised by distance independent passive dispersal mainly along a Southwest-Northeast axis, the absence of isolation-by-distance together with rather isolated and genetically depauperated populations compared to the variation present in the entire species due to strong local drift. A recent, climate driven range expansion explained most of the variance in genetic variation, reducing at least temporarily the genetic variability in this area. Other factors such as geographic marginality and dispersal barriers play only a minor role. Conclusions: To our knowledge, such a population structure has rarely been reported before. It might nevertheless be typical for passively dispersed, patchily distributed taxa (e.g. freshwater invertebrates). The strong local drift implied in such a structure is expected to erode genetic variation at both neutral and coding loci and thus probably diminish evolutionary potential. This study shows that the analysis of multiple factors is crucial for the inference of the processes shaping the distribution of genetic variation throughout species ranges. Additional files Additional file 1: Distribution of Radix taxa. Spatial distribution of the Radix MOTU as defined in Pfenninger et al. 2006 plus an additional, newly discovered taxon. This map is the basis for the inference of the species range of R. balthica. Additional file 2: Sampling site table and spatial distribution of diversity indices, selfing estimates and inferred population bottlenecks for R. balthica. Table of sampling site code, geographical position in decimal degrees latitude and longitude, number of individuals analysed with microsatellites (Nnuc), expected heterozygosity (HE) and standard deviation across loci, mean rarefied number of alleles per microsatellite locus (A) and their standard deviation, number of individuals analysed for mitochondrial variation (Nmt), rarefied number of mitochondrial COI haplotypes (Hmt), number of individuals measured for body size (Nsize). Figures A1 - A3 show a graphical representation of the spatial distribution of He, Hmt and, s, respectively. Additional file 3: Assessment of environmental marginality. PCA (principle component analysis) on 35 climatic parameters for the period from 1960 - 2000 from publicly availableWorldClim data. Additional file 4: Inference of a recent climate driven range expansion in R. balthica. Analysis of the freshwater benthos long term monitoring data of the Swedish national monitoring databases at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences SLU with canonical correspondence analysis

Alpine Crossroads or Origin of Genetic Diversity? Comparative Phylogeography of Two Sympatric Microgastropod Species

The Alpine Region, constituting the Alps and the Dinaric Alps, has played a major role in the formation of current patterns of biodiversity either as a contact zone of postglacial expanding lineages or as the origin of genetic diversity. In our study, we tested these hypotheses for two widespread, sympatric microgastropod taxa – Carychium minimum O.F. Müller, 1774 and Carychium tridentatum (Risso, 1826) (Gastropoda, Eupulmonata, Carychiidae) – by using COI sequence data and species potential distribution models analyzed in a statistical phylogeographical framework. Additionally, we examined disjunct transatlantic populations of those taxa from the Azores and North America. In general, both Carychium taxa demonstrate a genetic structure composed of several differentiated haplotype lineages most likely resulting from allopatric diversification in isolated refugial areas during the Pleistocene glacial periods. However, the genetic structure of Carychium minimum is more pronounced, which can be attributed to ecological constraints relating to habitat proximity to permanent bodies of water. For most of the Carychium lineages, the broader Alpine Region was identified as the likely origin of genetic diversity. Several lineages are endemic to the broader Alpine Region whereas a single lineage per species underwent a postglacial expansion to (re)colonize previously unsuitable habitats, e.g. in Northern Europe. The source populations of those expanding lineages can be traced back to the Eastern and Western Alps. Consequently, we identify the Alpine Region as a significant ‘hot-spot’ for the formation of genetic diversity within European Carychium lineages. Passive dispersal via anthropogenic means best explains the presence of transatlantic European Carychium populations on the Azores and in North America. We conclude that passive (anthropogenic) transport could mislead the interpretation of observed phylogeographical patterns in general