Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent heterogeneity of the agricultural systems existing by combining individual country models of 27 EU Member States and several accession countries into one single model while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from high communication and administration requirements to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings for avoiding inconsistencies.Linking Models, Policy Analysis, Partial Equilibrium Modelling, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Agricultural and Food Policy,

How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings to achieve consistency.linking models, policy analysis, partial equilibrium modelling, Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Inequality Decomposition Values

International audienceThis paper presents a general procedure inspired by the Shapley value for decomposing any inequality indices by factor components or by sub-populations. To do so we define an inequality game. Despite the fact that the characteristic function is not super-additive in general and that the linearity assumption of the space of inequality game does not hold, an axiomatization of the Shapley value is given in this context by using the Potential function pioneered by Hart and Mas-Colell [1989]. This result proves to be useful in illustrating a trade-off between the desirable properties of consistency and marginality. A comparison of such decomposition with the decomposition method investigated by SHORROCKS [1982] is provided in the case of factor component decomposition. Refinement of the Shapley decomposition is investigated when the set of income sources is nested. Furthermore, an application to the sub-population decomposition problem is also investigated

Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

Policy harmonized (PH) approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how common policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD models structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the papers penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.

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Conclusions and Future Work

In developing the AGMEMOD model of European agricultural commodity markets the AGMEMOD Partnership has shown that it is possible to establish an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model of European agriculture based on a “bottom up” approach. A total of 27 country level dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium models of agriculture have been developed and integrated to form a coherent partial equilibrium model of EU27 agriculture. This model is used to generate (baseline) agricultural commodity market outlook information and analysis and to conduct policy change impact (scenario) analysis