581 research outputs found
Computing the distribution of the maximum in balls-and-boxes problems, with application to clusters of disease cases
We present a rapid method for the exact calculation of the cumulative
distribution function of the maximum of multinomially distributed random
variables. The method runs in time , where is the desired maximum
and is the number of variables. We apply the method to the analysis of two
situations where an apparent clustering of cases of a disease in some locality
has raised the possibility that the disease might be communicable, and this
possibility has been discussed in the recent literature. We conclude that one
of these clusters may be explained on purely random grounds, whereas the other
may not
Metastability and anomalous fixation in evolutionary games on scale-free networks
We study the influence of complex graphs on the metastability and fixation
properties of a set of evolutionary processes. In the framework of evolutionary
game theory, where the fitness and selection are frequency-dependent and vary
with the population composition, we analyze the dynamics of snowdrift games
(characterized by a metastable coexistence state) on scale-free networks. Using
an effective diffusion theory in the weak selection limit, we demonstrate how
the scale-free structure affects the system's metastable state and leads to
anomalous fixation. In particular, we analytically and numerically show that
the probability and mean time of fixation are characterized by stretched
exponential behaviors with exponents depending on the network's degree
distribution.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Physical Review Letter
An exactly solvable coarse-grained model for species diversity
We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that
stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death
processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding
and synthesizing both theoretical results of ecological neutral theory and
empirical evidence on species diversity preservation. Neutral model of
biodiversity deals with ecosystems in the same trophic level where per-capita
vital rates are assumed to be species-independent. Close-form analytical
solutions for neutral theory are obtained within a coarse-grained model, where
the only input is the species persistence time distribution. Our results
pertain: the probability distribution function of the number of species in the
ecosystem both in transient and stationary states; the n-points connected time
correlation function; and the survival probability, definned as the
distribution of time-spans to local extinction for a species randomly sampled
from the community. Analytical predictions are also tested on empirical data
from a estuarine fish ecosystem. We find that emerging properties of the
ecosystem are very robust and do not depend on specific details of the model,
with implications on biodiversity and conservation biology.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Journal of Statistichal Mechanic
Stochastic differential equations for evolutionary dynamics with demographic noise and mutations
We present a general framework to describe the evolutionary dynamics of an
arbitrary number of types in finite populations based on stochastic
differential equations (SDE). For large, but finite populations this allows to
include demographic noise without requiring explicit simulations. Instead, the
population size only rescales the amplitude of the noise. Moreover, this
framework admits the inclusion of mutations between different types, provided
that mutation rates, , are not too small compared to the inverse
population size 1/N. This ensures that all types are almost always represented
in the population and that the occasional extinction of one type does not
result in an extended absence of that type. For this limits the use
of SDE's, but in this case there are well established alternative
approximations based on time scale separation. We illustrate our approach by a
Rock-Scissors-Paper game with mutations, where we demonstrate excellent
agreement with simulation based results for sufficiently large populations. In
the absence of mutations the excellent agreement extends to small population
sizes.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review
Temporal and dimensional effects in evolutionary graph theory
The spread in time of a mutation through a population is studied analytically
and computationally in fully-connected networks and on spatial lattices. The
time, t_*, for a favourable mutation to dominate scales with population size N
as N^{(D+1)/D} in D-dimensional hypercubic lattices and as N ln N in
fully-connected graphs. It is shown that the surface of the interface between
mutants and non-mutants is crucial in predicting the dynamics of the system.
Network topology has a significant effect on the equilibrium fitness of a
simple population model incorporating multiple mutations and sexual
reproduction. Includes supplementary information.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures Replaced after final round of peer revie
Stochasticity and evolutionary stability
In stochastic dynamical systems, different concepts of stability can be
obtained in different limits. A particularly interesting example is
evolutionary game theory, which is traditionally based on infinite populations,
where strict Nash equilibria correspond to stable fixed points that are always
evolutionarily stable. However, in finite populations stochastic effects can
drive the system away from strict Nash equilibria, which gives rise to a new
concept for evolutionary stability. The conventional and the new stability
concepts may apparently contradict each other leading to conflicting
predictions in large yet finite populations. We show that the two concepts can
be derived from the frequency dependent Moran process in different limits. Our
results help to determine the appropriate stability concept in large finite
populations. The general validity of our findings is demonstrated showing that
the same results are valid employing vastly different co-evolutionary
processes
Stochastic slowdown in evolutionary processes
We examine birth--death processes with state dependent transition
probabilities and at least one absorbing boundary. In evolution, this describes
selection acting on two different types in a finite population where
reproductive events occur successively. If the two types have equal fitness the
system performs a random walk. If one type has a fitness advantage it is
favored by selection, which introduces a bias (asymmetry) in the transition
probabilities. How long does it take until advantageous mutants have invaded
and taken over? Surprisingly, we find that the average time of such a process
can increase, even if the mutant type always has a fitness advantage. We
discuss this finding for the Moran process and develop a simplified model which
allows a more intuitive understanding. We show that this effect can occur for
weak but non--vanishing bias (selection) in the state dependent transition
rates and infer the scaling with system size. We also address the Wright-Fisher
model commonly used in population genetics, which shows that this stochastic
slowdown is not restricted to birth-death processes.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publicatio
Preservation of information in a prebiotic package model
The coexistence between different informational molecules has been the
preferred mode to circumvent the limitation posed by imperfect replication on
the amount of information stored by each of these molecules. Here we reexamine
a classic package model in which distinct information carriers or templates are
forced to coexist within vesicles, which in turn can proliferate freely through
binary division. The combined dynamics of vesicles and templates is described
by a multitype branching process which allows us to write equations for the
average number of the different types of vesicles as well as for their
extinction probabilities. The threshold phenomenon associated to the extinction
of the vesicle population is studied quantitatively using finite-size scaling
techniques. We conclude that the resultant coexistence is too frail in the
presence of parasites and so confinement of templates in vesicles without an
explicit mechanism of cooperation does not resolve the information crisis of
prebiotic evolution.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, accepted version, to be published in PR
Mutation, selection, and ancestry in branching models: a variational approach
We consider the evolution of populations under the joint action of mutation
and differential reproduction, or selection. The population is modelled as a
finite-type Markov branching process in continuous time, and the associated
genealogical tree is viewed both in the forward and the backward direction of
time. The stationary type distribution of the reversed process, the so-called
ancestral distribution, turns out as a key for the study of mutation-selection
balance. This balance can be expressed in the form of a variational principle
that quantifies the respective roles of reproduction and mutation for any
possible type distribution. It shows that the mean growth rate of the
population results from a competition for a maximal long-term growth rate, as
given by the difference between the current mean reproduction rate, and an
asymptotic decay rate related to the mutation process; this tradeoff is won by
the ancestral distribution.
Our main application is the quasispecies model of sequence evolution with
mutation coupled to reproduction but independent across sites, and a fitness
function that is invariant under permutation of sites. Here, the variational
principle is worked out in detail and yields a simple, explicit result.Comment: 45 pages,8 figure
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