Estimating risk premia in money market rates

This paper empirically tests the expectations hypothesis on both daily EONIA swap rates and monthly EURIBOR rates extended backwards with German LIBOR rates. In addition, we quantify the size of the risk premia in the money market at maturities of one, three, six and nine months. Using implied forward and spot rates in a cointegrated VAR model, we find that the data support the expectations hypothesis in the euro area and in Germany prior to 1999. We find that risk premia are relatively limited at the shorter maturities but more significant at maturities of six and nine months. Furthermore, the results on LIBOR/EURIBOR rates tentatively indicate a downward shift in the structure of the risk premia after the introduction of the euro. JEL Classification: E43, C32

Achieving progress in maternal and neonatal health through integrated and comprehensive healthcare services – experiences from a programme in northern Tanzania

An integrated and comprehensive hospital/community based health programme is presented, aimed at reducing maternal and child mortality and morbidity. It is run as part of a general programme of health care at a rural hospital situated in northern Tanzania. The purpose was through using research and statistics from the programme area, to illustrate how a hospital-based programme with a vision of integrated healthcare may have contributed to the lower figures on mortality found in the area. Such an approach may be of interest to policy makers, in relation to the global strategy that is now developed in order to meet the MDGs 4 and 5. The hospital provides reproductive and child health services, PMTCT-plus, comprehensive emergency obstetric care, ambulance, radio and transport services, paediatric care, an HIV/AIDS programme, and a generalised healthcare service to a population of approximately 500 000. We describe these services and their potential contribution to the reduction of the maternal and neonatal mortality ratios in the study area. Several studies from this area have showed a lower maternal mortality and neonatal mortality ratio compared to other studies from Tanzania and the national estimates. Many donor-funded programmes focusing on maternal and child health are vertical in their framework. However, the hospital, being the dominant supplier of health services in its catchment area, has maintained a horizontal approach through a comprehensive care programme. The total cost of the comprehensive hospital programme described is 3.2 million USD per year, corresponding to 6.4 USD per capita. Considering the relatively low cost of a comprehensive hospital programme including outreach services and the lower mortality ratios found in the catchment area of the hospital, we argue that donor funds should be used for supporting horizontal programmes aimed at comprehensive healthcare services. Through a strengthening of the collaboration between government and voluntary agency facilities, with clinical, preventive and managerial capabilities of the health facilities, the programmes will have a more sustainable impact and will achieve greater progress in the reduction of maternal and neonatal mortality, as opposed to vertical and segregated programmes that currently are commonly adopted for averting maternal and child deaths. Thus, we conclude that horizontal and comprehensive services of the type described in this article should be considered as a prerequisite for sustainable health care delivery at all policy and decision-making levels of the local, national and international health care delivery pyramid

Lithares: An Early Bronze Age Settlement in Boeotia

Series: Occasional Paper 1

Custodial reindeer and custodial goats - part of reindeer herding and animal husbandry

The Sami husbandry has traditionally incorporated reindeer, which did not belong to the nomadic household. According to the national census from 1875, this system was found in many parts of Norway. Among the counties, Nordland stood out having the highest number of households owing custodial reindeer. Most of the households were non-Sami, and most of them having less than ten reindeer. Especially in Nordland and Troms, a system with custodial goats also served as the transaction. There were eventually, with an exception of Finnmark, rules in place trying to prevent settled people from keeping reindeer, only followed in part. The system went on till after the Second World War, mainly because it was an important part of the household economy of the settled people. The great changes and rationalization within the agricultural sector, the growth of industrial society, and the modernisation of society in general undermined the use of reindeer as a part of the household livestock. Abstract in Norwegian / Sammendrag: Sytingsrein og sytingsgeiter, del av det samme husdyrholdet Systemet med sytingsrein har trolig foregått så lenge det har eksistert reindrift, det vil si at en del av reinflokken har bestått av dyr som tilhørte de bofaste, men som ble passet på av reindriftssamer. Kilder viser at systemet fantes over hele Norge der det ble drevet reindrift, men i størst utstrekning i Troms og Nordland. Sytingsgeiter kunne være en gjenytelse der reindriftssamenes geiter ble passet av de bofaste gjennom vinteren. Fra myndighetenes side ble det fra ca. 1900, med unntak av for Finnmarks del, satt inn restriksjoner for å begrense sytingsreinholdet. Det ble ikke uten videre fulgt, da systemet hadde stor betydning for både nomader og de bosatte. Moderniseringen av samfunnet etter andre verdenskrig førte imidlertid til at dette utbyttet mistet sin betydning, og sytingsreininstitusjonen ble tilsynelatende borte, men er nå delvis lovlig igjen fra 2007

Research on and by "the Other": Focusing on the Researcher's Encounter with the Lule sami in a Historically Changing Context

Vitenskapelig artikkel. Omhandler samer og kveners aktive deltakelse i forskning og kunnskapsproduksjon.A century and half ago, the encounter between the researcher and those (s)he researched were described and seen from the vantage point of the researcher. ‘The others’ participated in the encounters, but were seldom asked for advice regarding the approach or to provide their own perspectives. But this has changed. Originally playing the passive role of the objects of research, today the Sami and Kven of northern Norway have taken on the role of the active participant. These changes are apparent when examining research on the Lule Sami in Norway over the last 150 years. Several dimensions must be considered. First, the researcher and their research must be placed and understood within the contemporary ideological context, implying that the situation of the researcher will reflect the social and political conditions of the time. Analysis of research from the Lule Sami area demonstrates how the researcher’s perspective on the Sami people and culture has changed over time, how the Sami role in history, and thus cultural diversity, has been revealed in greater detail, and how the Sami part of the population has increasingly participated by taking on the role of the researcher. Finally, the encounter is analysed in an international context, which shows how the local and national changes are also part of an international development

Barriers to Implementing Emergency Obstetric Care in Northern Tanzania: Balancing Quality and Quantity

Background: Improving obstetric care is one key factor for the achievement of the millennium development goals concerning maternal and child mortality. Earlier studies of barriers to implementation of health policies, including plans to improve obstetric care, show that there is a major shortfall in the provision and utilization of services in a developing country such as Tanzania. Only scattered evidence exists on how these findings relate to the health system itself and the ability of the system to provide minimum quality care. Aims: The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate health system barriers to facility utilization and facility deliveries of adequate quality through the use of EmOC as a monitoring tool in a resource poor environment such as northern Tanzania. The thesis attempts to contribute to increased understanding of the importance of quality in balance with quantity of health services to improve utilization of services in the community. Material and methods: The study was conducted in six districts in northern Tanzania, and included all facilities in each district (n=129). Each facility in the study districts was assessed in terms of its supply of Emergency Obstetric Care (EmOC) services using pretested and validated assessment guidelines developed by UNICEF/WHO/UNFPA. Data were collected using a facility survey tool including information relevant specifically to the EmOC indicators. Other data sources were the national health management information systems, official planning documents, population surveys and administrative records. Results: Overall there is a very low availability of Basic Emergency Obstetric Care (BEmOC) units in the study area (1.6/500,000 people). Comparatively there is a high availability of Comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care (CEmOC) units (4.6/500,000 people). There is a large urban / rural variation. The overall provision of Caesarian sections was 4.6%, also lower than the UN guidelines stipulate (5% – 15 %). On average 1.7 BEmOC qualified staff were available at dispensary level and 7.3 BEmOC qualified staff available at health center level. There were on average only 2.5 CEmOC qualified staff at first referral levels. Compared to global figures the availability of staff per population in Tanzania is very low. There is considerable bypassing of services. Delivering mothers seek perceived quality services, often provided only in urban areas, or by voluntary agencies in rural areas. Discussion: Using the EmOC tool was useful to assess availability and utilization of health services. Our data suggest that one of the most important determinants of access to quality care is not the knowledge of the mother or her ability to get to a facility, but the lack of quality care provided at the facility. Of concern is the total provision of good-quality services, accessible to all but not necessarily with the same overall coverage, given the severe resource constraints. The issue at stake is not coverage, but health care quality, accessibility and trust. A high coverage of inadequate quality is not pro-poor

Analysis of the probability of default in peer-to-peer lending. Application of different classification techniques.

In this thesis, peer-to-peer lending is explored and analyzed with the objective of fitting a model to accurately predict if borrowers default on their loans or not. The foundation for the thesis is a dataset from LendingClub, a peer-to-peer lending platform based in San Francisco, USA. Detailed information of borrowers’ financial history, personal characteristics and the specifics of each loan is used to predict the probability of default for the various loans in the portfolio. Methods used include elastic net regularization of logistic regression, boosting of decision trees, and bagging with random forests. The results are compared using accuracy metrics and a profitability measure, before a final model selection is carried out.Masteroppgave i statistikkMAMN-STATSTAT39