Benchmarking HIV health care: from individual patient care to health care evaluation : An example from the EuroSIDA study

Peer reviewe

Regional and temporal changes in AIDS in Europe before HAART

In a prospective observational study 4485 patients from 46 clinical centres in 17 European countries were followed between April 1994 and November 1996. Information on AIDS-defining events (ADEs) were collected together with basic demographic data, treatment history and laboratory results. The centres were divided into four geographical regions (north, central, south-west and south-east) so that it was possible to identify any existing regional differences in ADEs. The regional differences that we observed included a higher risk of all forms of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections (Tb) and wasting disease in the south-west and an increased risk of infections with the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) in the north. In Cox multivariable analyses, where north was used as the reference group, we observed hazard ratios of 6.87, 7.77, 2.29 and 0.16 (P < 0.05 in all cases) for pulmonary Tb, extrapulmonary Tb, wasting disease and MAC respectively in the south-west. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) was less commonly diagnosed in the central region (RH = 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.79, P = 0.003) and most common in the south-east (RH = 1.04, 95% CI 0.71-1.51, P = 0.85). Comparisons with a similar 'AIDS in Europe' study that concentrated on the early phase of the epidemic reveal that most of the regional differences that were observed in the 1980s still persist in the mid-1990s

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HBV coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction tools for HCC have been validated in patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. Thus, we performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. METHODS: We included data on PLWH from four European cohorts who were positive for HBsAg and did not have HCC before starting tenofovir. We estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B for HCC occurrence over 15 years in patients receiving tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as a covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing our cumulative incidence with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: In total, 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10-17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 2.03-3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61-1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73-0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare unnecessary HCC screening in 27% of individuals. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Chronic HBV infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV. Valid risk prediction may enable better targeting of HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed to validate PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, sex, and platelets, in 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV

Uptake and effectiveness of two-drug compared with three-drug antiretroviral regimens among HIV-positive individuals in Europe

Objective: To assess the use of two-drug antiretroviral regimens (2DR) and virologic and immunologic outcomes compared with three-drug regimens (3DR) in the EuroSIDA cohort. Design: Multicentre, prospective cohort study. Methods: Logistic regression was used to analyse the uptake and outcomes among HIV-positive individuals who started or switched to a 2DR compared with those on a 3DR. Virologic outcomes were assessed on-treatment as the proportion of individuals with controlled viral load (Peer reviewe

Can Linear Regression Modeling Help Clinicians in the Interpretation of Genotypic Resistance Data? An Application to Derive a Lopinavir-Score

The question of whether a score for a specific antiretroviral (e.g. lopinavir/r in this analysis) that improves prediction of viral load response given by existing expert-based interpretation systems (IS) could be derived from analyzing the correlation between genotypic data and virological response using statistical methods remains largely unanswered.We used the data of the patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study for whom genotypic data were stored in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK HDRD) to construct a training/validation dataset of treatment change episodes (TCE). We used the average square error (ASE) on a 10-fold cross-validation and on a test dataset (the EuroSIDA TCE database) to compare the performance of a newly derived lopinavir/r score with that of the 3 most widely used expert-based interpretation rules (ANRS, HIVDB and Rega). Our analysis identified mutations V82A, I54V, K20I and I62V, which were associated with reduced viral response and mutations I15V and V91S which determined lopinavir/r hypersensitivity. All models performed equally well (ASE on test ranging between 1.1 and 1.3, p = 0.34).We fully explored the potential of linear regression to construct a simple predictive model for lopinavir/r-based TCE. Although, the performance of our proposed score was similar to that of already existing IS, previously unrecognized lopinavir/r-associated mutations were identified. The analysis illustrates an approach of validation of expert-based IS that could be used in the future for other antiretrovirals and in other settings outside HIV research

Regional differences in AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality in HIV-positive individuals across Europe and Argentina: the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND Differences in access to care and treatment have been reported in Eastern Europe, a region with one of the fastest growing HIV epidemics, compared to the rest of Europe. This analysis aimed to establish whether there are regional differences in the mortality rate of HIV-positive individuals across Europe, and Argentina. METHODS 13,310 individuals under follow-up were included in the analysis. Poisson regression investigated factors associated with the risk of death. FINDINGS During 82,212 person years of follow-up (PYFU) 1,147 individuals died (mortality rate 14.0 per 1,000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.1-14.8). Significant differences between regions were seen in the rate of all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality (global p<0.0001 for all three endpoints). Compared to South Europe, after adjusting for baseline demographics, laboratory measurements and treatment, a higher rate of AIDS related mortality was observed in East Europe (IRR 2.90, 95%CI 1.97-4.28, p<.0001), and a higher rate of non-AIDS related mortality in North Europe (IRR 1.51, 95%CI 1.24-1.82, p<.0001). The differences observed in North Europe decreased over calendar-time, in 2009-2011, the higher rate of non-AIDS related mortality was no longer significantly different to South Europe (IRR 1.07, 95%CI 0.66-1.75, p = 0.77). However, in 2009-2011, there remained a higher rate of AIDS-related mortality (IRR 2.41, 95%CI 1.11-5.25, p = 0.02) in East Europe compared to South Europe in adjusted analysis. INTERPRETATIONS There are significant differences in the rate of all-cause mortality among HIV-positive individuals across different regions of Europe and Argentina. Individuals in Eastern Europe had an increased risk of mortality from AIDS related causes and individuals in North Europe had the highest rate of non-AIDS related mortality. These findings are important for understanding and reviewing HIV treatment strategies and policies across the European region

Hyaluronic acid levels predict risk of hepatic encephalopathy and liver-related death in HIV/viral hepatitis coinfected patients

Background: Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid's (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study. Methods: Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0-75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls). Results: During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2-62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9-611.3), respectively (p,0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75-250 or $250 vs. ,75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86-9.26, p,0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95-46.00, p,0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR -5.1 to 8.2), (p,0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p,0.001). Conclusions: An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications

Low Risk of Failing Direct-Acting Antivirals in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus From Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeastern Asia: A European Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Several studies have reported suboptimal efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes endemic to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southeastern Asia (SEA). The extent of this issue in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV from SSA or SEA residing in Europe is unknown. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from several prospective European cohorts of people living with HIV. We included individuals with HIV/HCV who originated from SSA or SEA, were treated with interferon-free DAAs, and had an available HCV RNA result ≥12 weeks after the end of treatment. The primary outcome was sustained virological response at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Results: Of the 3293 individuals with HIV/HCV treated with DAA and with available SVR12 data, 142 were from SSA (n = 64) and SEA (n = 78). SVR12 was achieved by 60 (94% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 86%-98%]) individuals from SSA and 76 (97% [95% CI, 92%-99%]) from SEA. The genotypes of the 6 individuals failing DAA treatment were 2, 3a, 3h, 4a, 4c, and 6j. For 2 of the 4 unsuccessfully treated individuals with available sequence data at treatment failure, NS5A resistance-associated substitutions were present (30R/93S in an individual with genotype 4c and 31M in an individual with genotype 6j). Conclusions: SVR12 rates were high in individuals with HIV/HCV residing in Europe and originating from regions where intrinsically NS5A-resistant HCV strains are endemic. HCV elimination for this population in Europe is unlikely to be hampered by suboptimal DAA efficacy. Keywords: coinfection; elimination; hepatitis C virus; human immunodeficiency viru

Long-term effectiveness of unboosted atazanavir plus abacavir/lamivudine in subjects with virological suppression: A prospective cohort study

Effectiveness data of an unboosted atazanavir (ATV) with abacavir/lamivudine (ABC/3TC) switch strategy in clinical routine are scant.We evaluated treatment outcomes of ATV + ABC/3TC in pretreated subjects in the EuroSIDA cohort when started with undetectable plasma HIV-1 viral load (pVL), performing a time to loss of virological response (TLOVR 50 copies/mL.We included 285 subjects, 67% male, with median baseline CD4 530 cells, and 44 months with pVL ≤50 copies/mL. The third drug in the previous regimen was ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) in 79 (28%), and another ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in 29 (10%). Ninety (32%) had previously failed with a PI. Proportions of people with virological success at 48/96/144 weeks were 90%/87%/88% (TLOVR) and 74%/67%/59% (snapshot analysis), respectively. The rates of VF were 8%/8%/6%. Rates of adverse events leading to study discontinuation were 0.4%/1%/2%. The multivariable adjusted analysis showed an association between VF and nadir CD4+ (hazard ratio [HR] 0.63 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42-0.93] per 100 cells higher), time with pVL ≤50 copies/mL (HR 0.87 [95% CI: 0.79-0.96] per 6 months longer), and previous failure with a PI (HR 2.78 [95% CI: 1.28-6.04]). Resistance selection at failure was uncommon.A switch to ATV + ABC/3TC in selected subjects with suppressed viremia was associated with low rates of VF and discontinuation due to adverse events, even in subjects not receiving ATV/r. The strategy might be considered in those with long-term suppression and no prior PI failure