Statistical evidence about human influence on the climate system

Working Paper No WP2012-012We use recent methods for the analysis of time series data, in particular related to breaks in trends, to establish that human factors are the main contributors to the secular movements in observed global and hemispheric temperatures series. The most important feature documented is a marked increase in the growth rates of temperatures (purged from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and anthropogenic greenhouse gases occurring for all series around 1955, which marks the start of sustained global warming. Also evidence shows that human interventions effectively slowed global warming in two occasions. The Montreal Protocol and the technological change in agricultural production in Asia are major drivers behind the slowdown of the warming since 1994, providing evidence about the effectiveness of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2 for mitigating climate change in the shorter term. The largest socioeconomic disruptions, the two World Wars and the Great Crash, are shown to have contributed to the cooling in the mid 20th century. While other radiative factors have modulated their effect, the greenhouse gases defined the secular movement in both the total radiative forcing and the global and hemispheric temperature series. Deviations from this anthropogenic trend are shown to have transitory effects

Stair Versus Elevator Use in a University Residence Hall Setting

Objective Determine the temporal and spatial characteristics of stairs versus elevator use in a university residence hall to inform future physical activity promotion efforts. Participants All residents and visitors for a single, four-story residence hall dormitory building located on a college campus in Orange, CA. Methods Smart mat systems capable of detecting pedestrian traffic were placed in front of the stairs and elevators on each floor plus a basement. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were used to compare stair versus elevator usage at different times of the day and on different floors. Results Stair versus elevator use varied much more throughout the day on floors nearest to the ground floor, with stair use most common in the morning. Overall, the elevator was used more frequently on higher floors, with less variation throughout the day. Conclusion To be most effective, future stair promotion interventions should target residents on higher floors and in the morning

CLEAR II: Evidence for Early Formation of the Most Compact Quiescent Galaxies at High Redshift

The origin of the correlations between mass, morphology, quenched fraction, and formation history in galaxies is difficult to define, primarily due to the uncertainties in galaxy star-formation histories. Star-formation histories are better constrained for higher redshift galaxies, observed closer to their formation and quenching epochs. Here we use "non-parametric" star-formation histories and a nested sampling method to derive constraints on the formation and quenching timescales of quiescent galaxies at $0.7<z<2.5$. We model deep HST grism spectroscopy and photometry from the CLEAR (CANDELS Lyman$-\alpha$ Emission at Reionization) survey. The galaxy formation redshifts, $z_{50}$ (defined as the point where they had formed 50\% of their stellar mass) range from $z_{50}\sim 2$ (shortly prior to the observed epoch) up to $z_{50} \simeq 5-8$. \editone{We find that early formation redshifts are correlated with high stellar-mass surface densities, $\log \Sigma_1 / (M_\odot\ \mathrm{kpc}^{-2}) >$10.25, where $\Sigma_1$ is the stellar mass within 1~pkpc (proper kpc). Quiescent galaxies with the highest stellar-mass surface density, $\log\Sigma_1 / (M_\odot\ \mathrm{kpc}^{-2}) > 10.25$, } show a \textit{minimum} formation redshift: all such objects in our sample have $z_{50} > 2.9$. Quiescent galaxies with lower surface density, $\log \Sigma_1 / (M_\odot\ \mathrm{kpc}^{-2}) = 9.5 - 10.25$, show a range of formation epochs ($z_{50} \simeq 1.5 - 8$), implying these galaxies experienced a range of formation and assembly histories. We argue that the surface density threshold$\log\Sigma_1/(M_\odot\ \mathrm{kpc}^{-2})>10.25$ uniquely identifies galaxies that formed in the first few Gyr after the Big Bang, and we discuss the implications this has for galaxy formation models.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. Includes an interactive online appendix (https://vince-ec.github.io/appendix/appendix

Activation of cytokines and NF-kappa B in corneal epithelial cells infected by respiratory syncytial virus: potential relevance in ocular inflammation and respiratory infection

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection, claiming millions of lives annually. The virus infects various cells of the respiratory tract as well as resident inflammatory cells such as macrophages. Infection activates a variety of cellular factors such as cytokines and the pro-inflammatory transcription factor, NF-kappa B, all of which are important players in the respiratory disease. However, the exact natural route of RSV infection and its etiology remain relatively unknown. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that human corneal epithelial cells, which constitute the outermost layer of the cornea, can be infected with RSV, and that the infection leads to the activation of proinflammatory macromolecules. RESULTS: Corneal swabs obtained from pediatric patients with acute respiratory disease were found to contain RSV at a high frequency (43 positive out of 72 samples, i.e., 60%). Primary corneal epithelial cells in tissue culture supported robust infection and productive growth of RSV. Infection resulted in the activation of TNF-α, IL-6 and sixteen chemokines as well as NF-κB. Three proinflammatory CXC chemokines (MIG, I-TAC, IP-10) underwent the greatest activation. CONCLUSIONS: The ocular epithelium is readily infected by RSV. The pro-inflammatory cytokines are likely to play critical roles in the etiology of inflammation and conjunctivitis commonly seen in pediatric patients with respiratory infections. RSV-eye interactions have important implications in RSV transmission, immunopathology of RSV disease, and in the management of conjunctivitis

CLEAR I: Ages and Metallicities of Quiescent Galaxies at 1.0<z<1.8\mathbf{1.0 < z < 1.8} Derived from Deep Hubble Space Telescope Grism Data

We use deep \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} spectroscopy to constrain the metallicities and (\editone{light-weighted}) ages of massive ($\log M_\ast/M_\odot\gtrsim10$) galaxies selected to have quiescent stellar populations at $1.0<z<1.8$. The data include 12--orbit depth coverage with the WFC3/G102 grism covering $\sim$ $8,000<\lambda<11,500$~\AA\, at a spectral resolution of $R\sim 210$ taken as part of the CANDELS Lyman-$\alpha$ Emission at Reionization (CLEAR) survey. At $1.0<z<1.8$, the spectra cover important stellar population features in the rest-frame optical. We simulate a suite of stellar population models at the grism resolution, fit these to the data for each galaxy, and derive posterior likelihood distributions for metallicity and age. We stack the posteriors for subgroups of galaxies in different redshift ranges that include different combinations of stellar absorption features. Our results give \editone{light-weighted ages of $t_{z \sim 1.1}= 3.2\pm 0.7$~Gyr, $t_{z \sim 1.2}= 2.2\pm 0.6$~Gyr, $t_{z\sim1.3}= 3.1\pm 0.6$~Gyr, and $t_{z\sim1.6}= 2.0 \pm 0.6$~Gyr, \editone{for galaxies at $z\sim 1.1$, 1.2, 1.3, and 1.6. This} implies that most of the massive quiescent galaxies at $168$\% of their stellar mass by a redshift of $z>2$}. The posteriors give metallicities of \editone{$Z_{z\sim1.1}=1.16 \pm 0.29$~$Z_\odot$, $Z_{z\sim1.2}=1.05 \pm 0.34$~$Z_\odot$, $Z_{z\sim1.3}=1.00 \pm 0.31$~$Z_\odot$, and $Z_{z\sim1.6}=0.95 \pm 0.39$~$Z_\odot$}. This is evidence that massive galaxies had enriched rapidly to approximately Solar metallicities as early as $z\sim3$.Comment: 32 pages, 23 figures, Resubmited to ApJ after revisions in response to referee repor

Do Lianas Shape Ant Communities in An Early Successional Tropical Forest?

Almost half of lowland tropical forests are at various stages of regeneration following deforestation or fragmentation. Changes in tree communities along successional gradients have predictable bottom‐up effects on consumers. Liana (woody vine) assemblages also change with succession, but their effects on animal succession remain unexplored. Here we used a large‐scale liana removal experiment across a forest successional chronosequence (7–31 years) to determine the importance of lianas to ant community structure. We conducted 1,088 surveys of ants foraging on and living in trees using tree trunk baiting and hand‐collecting techniques at 34 paired forest plots, half of which had all lianas removed. Ant species composition, β‐diversity, and species richness were not affected by liana removal; however, ant species co‐occurrence (the coexistence of two or more species in a single tree) was more frequent in control plots, where lianas were present, versus removal plots. Forest stand age had a larger effect on ant community structure than the presence of lianas. Mean ant species richness in a forest plot increased by ca. 10% with increasing forest age across the 31‐year chronosequence. Ant surveys from forest \u3e20 years old included more canopy specialists and fewer ground‐nesting ant species versus those from forestsConsequently, lianas had a minimal effect on arboreal ant communities in this early successional forest, where rapidly changing tree community structure was more important to ant species richness and composition

Anti-staphylococcal properties of Eichhornia crassipes, Pistacia vera, and Ziziphus amole leaf extracts: Isolates from cattle and rabbits

Eichhornia crassipes (Water hyacinth), belonging to the family Pontideriaceae is one of the most productive aquatic perennial herbs on earth, and it has been known for its unique medicinal importance. The phytoconstituents of this plant have vast biological properties including antiviral, antifungal, antitumor, and antibacterial activities [7]. Additionally, its secondary metabolites have been considered to be involved in the chemical defense of plants against plant pathogensThe desideratum aim of the present context was to assess the biopotency of methanolic extracts of Eichhornia crassipes (E. crassipes), Pistacia vera (P. vera), and Ziziphus amole (Z. amole) leaves against various staphylococcal strains, and to quantify the phenolics as well as saponin content in them. The antibacterial activity of various concentrations (62.5–1000 μg/mL) of plant extracts was tested against control clinical strains (Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923, S. aureus ATCC 29213, and S. aureus ATCC 43300), methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA1 and MRSA2), oxacillin sensitive S. aureus (SOSA1 and SOSA2), and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus epidermidis (CoNS1, CoNS2, and CoNS3) using disc diffusion assay. Leaf extracts of the three plants exhibited pronounced growth inhibitory characteristics against staphylococci in a dose dependent manner. E. crassipes extract depicted the highest relative percentage inhibition values against control clinical strains (68.6 ± 0.5%), while P. vera (68.6 ± 0.3%) and Z. amole (74.79 ± 0.3%) extracts showed pronounced relative inhibition values against staphylococcal strains isolated from cattle. Total phenols and saponin content of leaf extracts were investigated by standard in vitro methods. The methanolic extracts of these plants were found to comprise substantial content of phenolics and saponin at varying levels. The highest value of phenolics was estimated in P. vera extract (60.0 ± 1.3 mg gallic acid/g extract), followed by Z. amole (33.6 ± 1.4 mg gallic acid/g extract), and E. crassipes (23.0 ± 1.3 mg gallic acid/g extract). Saponin content for P. vera, Z. amole, and E. crassipes extracts were estimated as 41.0 ± 1.3, 35.8 ± 1.3, and 25.0 ± 1.2 mg diosgenin/g extract, respectively. The outcome of this study suggested the exploitation of methanolic extract of P. vera, Z. amole, and E. crassipes leaves for their possible application in ethnomedicine, particularly as drugs preparation against staphylococcal infections. In conclusion, the study indicates the biopotency of these plants against pathogenic MRSA present in cattle, and SOSA as well as CoNS bacteria present in rabbits, which could be a serious issue for livestock

Tropane and Granatane Alkaloid Biosynthesis: A Systematic Analysis

The tropane and granatane alkaloids belong to the larger pyrroline and piperidine classes of plant alkaloids, respectively. Their core structures share common moieties and their scattered distribution among angiosperms suggest that their biosynthesis may share common ancestry in some orders, while they may be independently derived in others. Tropane and granatane alkaloid diversity arises from the myriad modifications occurring to their core ring structures. Throughout much of human history, humans have cultivated tropane- and granatane-producing plants for their medicinal properties. This manuscript will discuss the diversity of their biological and ecological roles as well as what is known about the structural genes and enzymes responsible for their biosynthesis. In addition, modern approaches to producing some pharmaceutically important tropanes via metabolic engineering endeavors are discussed

The role of magnetic islands in modifying long range temporal correlations of density fluctuations and local heat transport

This work explores the relation between magnetic islands, long range temporal correlations and heat transport. A low order rational surface (t = 3/2) was purposely scanned outward through an electron cyclotron resonance heated (ECRH) plasma in the TJ-II stellarator. Density turbulence and the poloidal flow velocity were characterized using a two channel Doppler reflectometer. Simultaneously, the ECRH power was modulated to characterize heat transport, using measurements from a 12 channel electron cyclotron emission diagnostic. A systematic variation of the poloidal velocity was found to be associated with the t = 3/2 rational surface. Near the rational surface, the Hurst exponent, quantifying the nature of long-range correlations, was reduced below 0.5 (indicating subdiffusion), while at radii smaller than that of the rational surface, it was found to be significantly enhanced (superdiffusion). In the latter region, heat transport was enhanced as well, thus establishing a link between density fluctuations and anomalous heat transport. The observed variation of the Hurst exponent was consistent with a magnetohydrodynamic turbulence simulation

Electronic Prototype of Autonomous Learning for the Crossing of Pedestrians with Visual Disabilities in Lima

Difficulties related to vehicular chaos and obstacles in public spaces hinder the orientation of visually impaired individuals, limiting their autonomy and exposing them to potential accidents. Considering these factors, the objective was to develop a prototype that facilitates autonomous learning by utilizing different electronic components. The aim is to ensure the safe movement of blind pedestrians, promote self-reliance, and minimize the risk of accidents. The proposed prototype is based on the concept of implementing intelligent traffic lights that detect the presence of pedestrians, allowing for safe crossing for both pedestrians and vehicles. The proposed circuit utilizes two ESP32 modules. One module is placed in the traffic light and configured as a Bluetooth master to transmit signals. It is also equipped with an ultrasonic sensor. The other module is located in the user’s wristband and configured as a Bluetooth slave to receive signals. It is also equipped with a horn. The communication between the modules has been developed using the C programming language for microcontrollers in the Arduino IDE development environment. A master-slave communication system was implemented, resulting in the constant reporting of the distance between the pedestrian and the sidewalk within the pedestrian crossing by the ultrasonic sensor. This system controls the safe crossing by regulating the traffic lights. The HC-SR04 ultrasonic sensor can detect distances ranging from 2 cm to 450 cm. Therefore, the prototype can be used as a foundation for future advancements in various cities and contexts, ultimately benefiting blind pedestrians by improving their mobility