AN ECONOMIC MODELLING APPROACH FOR VULNERABILITY ASSESMENT IN IRRIGATION FARMS IN SPAIN

Farm Management,

An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources

Perspectives on climate change and human development in the Mediterranean agriculture

The Mediterranean region is one of the world's climate change hotspots. Future climate projections envisage dramatic implications for the agricultural and water sectors that will endanger economic development and lead to natural resources degradation and social instability

The role of non-Saccharomyces yeasts in industrial winemaking

The fermentation of grape juice into wine is a complex microbiological process, in which yeasts play a central role. Traditionally, identification and characterization of yeast species have been based on morphological and physiological characteristics. However, the application of molecular biology techniques represents an alternative to the traditional methods of yeast identification and are becoming an important tool in solving industrial problems. Although Saccharomyces cerevisiae is responsible for the alcoholic fermentation, the presence of non-Saccharomyces species could be important since they produce secondary metabolites, which can contribute to the final taste and flavor of wines

Analysing trade-offs between food production and ecosystem services in tropical forests of lowland Bolivia

The expansion of agricultural land is responsible for most tropical deforestation. Historically, smallholder farming and shifting cultivation has been reported as the main agent of deforestation. However, the increasing global demand for food in recent years has greatly boosted the development of medium and large-scale commercial agriculture which is nowadays causing the majority of tropical forest cover loss, particularly in Latin America

Water, agriculture and ecosystem services in climate change vulnerable agricultural regions of Spain and Jordan

Irrigated agricultural landscapes generate a valuable set of ecosystem services, which are threatened by water scarcity in many aridand semi‐arid regions of the world. In the Mediterranean region, climate change is expected to decrease water availability through reduced precipitation and more frequent drought spells. At the same time, climate change, demographic and economic development and an agricultural sector highly dependent on irrigation, will raise water demand, increasing experienced water scarcity and affecting the provision of ecosystem services from water resources and agro-ecosystems. In this context, policy makers face the challenge of balancing the provision of different ecosystem services, including agricultural income and production and also water ecosystem protection

A methodological approach for prioritizing water reuse projects in agricultural irrigation: a case study in Spain

Water reuse is a strategic priority for Water Authorities in Europe to reduce the pressure on water resources. However, its implementation is lagging behind expectations largely due to financial concerns. In this context, there is a special interest to identify in which specific Wastewater Treatment Plants it would be interesting to add a Water Regeneration Plant, taking account of potential existing clients in the vicinity and the implied costs and benefits. This paper proposes a methodology to quantify the infrastructure and operation costs of project implementation, and the benefits generated by the additional water offer. An algorithm designs the distribution network, allowing for a quick infrastructure cost analysis. The methodology is applied to the Upper Guadiana in Central Spain, where irrigation led to the overexploitation of the local aquifers and the subsequent restrictions on water use. Taking account of the existing Wastewater Treatment Plants, candidate reuse projects are classified according to their benefit/cost ratio, showing large differences according to the location and potential use of the regenerated water. The methodology allows for a quick assessment of the costs and benefits implied in different reuse projects and scenarios, providing science-based evidence to support water policy decisions

Analysis of current patterns of deforestation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change is a major threat to human and natural systems, and particularly to the functionality of ecosystems and the services they provide (IPCC, 2014). Tropical deforestation contributes to 12?14% of global greenhouse gas emissions (Harris et al., 2014). Deforestation also reduces the capacity of forests as key above ground sinks of carbon, and has considerable effects upon biodiversity (Peres et al., 2010 and Pereira et al., 2012). Forest conservation and management offers a strategy for climate change mitigation through restoration of the capacity of forest carbon sequestration