Modelling the spatial and seasonal distribution of suitable habitats of schistosomiasis intermediate host snails using Maxent in Ndumo area, KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

Abstract Background Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne disease endemic in sub-Saharan Africa transmitted by freshwater snails. The distribution of schistosomiasis coincides with that of the intermediate hosts as determined by climatic and environmental factors. The aim of this paper was to model the spatial and seasonal distribution of suitable habitats for Bulinus globosus and Biomphalaria pfeifferi snail species (intermediate hosts for Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni, respectively) in the Ndumo area of uMkhanyakude district, South Africa. Methods Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modelling technique was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi using presence-only datasets with ≥ 5 and ≤ 12 sampling points in different seasons. Precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), pH, slope and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were the background variables in the Maxent models. The models were validated using the area under the curve (AUC) and omission rate. Results The predicted suitable habitats for intermediate snail hosts varied with seasons. The AUC for models in all seasons ranged from 0.71 to 1 and the prediction rates were between 0.8 and 0.9. Although B. globosus was found at more localities in the Ndumo area, there was also evidence of cohabiting with B. pfiefferi at some of the locations. NDWI had significant contribution to the models in all seasons. Conclusion The Maxent model is robust in snail habitat suitability modelling even with small dataset of presence-only sampling sites. Application of the methods and design used in this study may be useful in developing a control and management programme for schistosomiasis in the Ndumo area

Modelling the distribution of the vector Aedes aegypti in a central Argentine city

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is an urban mosquito involved in the transmission of numerous viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In Argentina, Ae. aegypti is the main vector of dengue virus and has been involved in several outbreaks in regions ranging from northern to central Argentina since 2009. In order to evaluate areas of potential vector-borne disease transmission in the city of Córdoba, Argentina, the present study aimed to identify the environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors driving the distribution of Ae. aegypti larvae through spatial analysis in the form of species distribution models (SDMs). These models elucidate relationships between known occurrences of a species and environmental data in order to identify areas with suitable habitats for that species and the consequent risk for disease transmission. The maximum entropy species distribution model was able to fit the training data well, with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of \u3e 0.8, and produced models with fair extrapolation capacity (average test AUC: \u3e 0.75). Human population density, distance to vegetation and water channels were the main variables predictive of the vector suitability of an area. The results of this work will be used to target surveillance and prevention measures, as well as in mosquito management

Ecological characterization of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) at the southern coast of Mar Chiquita Lake, Argentina

In the southern coast of Mar Chiquita Lake, central Argentina, mosquitoes affect public health and community livelihood, since they transmit pathogens to human beings causing diseases such as malaria, filariasis, encephalitis, yellow fever, and dengue, among others, and have a negative effect on cattle farming as well. To characterize the structure of the mosquito assemblage of the region, we determined the species composition and diversity, the temporal distribution of different species, and the patterns of species richness, abundance and diversity across seasons. We collected adult mosquitoes over a two-year period (October 2004 ? September 2006) by means of CDC light traps baited with CO2 from 18:00 to 08:00 h during the warm season (October-April) and from 12:00 h to 18:00 h in the cold season (May-September). A total of 71,501 individuals from 30 species were collected, with Culex and Aedes genera representing more than 98% of collected specimens (61.5% and 37.3%, respectively). The higher values of richness and abundance of Culicidae were registered in warm seasons compared to cold seasons. Chao1 estimates suggested that more than 90% of the species were detected in all seasons. Mosquito abundance distribution fit the logarithmic series and log-normal models. Aedes albifasciatus (Macquart), Ae. scapularis (Rondani), Culex interfor Dyar, Cx. saltanensis Dyar and Cx. dolosus (Lynch Arribálzaga), vectors incriminated in arbovirus transmission, were abundant year-round, with Cx. saltanensis and Cx. dolosus most prevalent in cold seasons. Further studies are needed to assess the role of these species in arbovirus transmission in this region of central Argentina.Fil: Visintin, Andrés Mario. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Rioja; ArgentinaFil: Laurito, Magdalena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Grech, Marta Gladys. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagóica. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia "San Juan Bosco". Facultad de Ciencias Naturales - Sede Esquel. Centro de Investigación Esquel de Montaña y Estepa Patagónica; ArgentinaFil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Grillet, María E. Universidad Central de Venezuela. Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Zoología y Ecología Tropical; VenezuelaFil: Ludueña Almeida, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Almiron, Walter Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba; Argentin

Causas de muerte en pacientes con aneurisma de aorta abdominal quirúrgico no tratado de forma electiva

Resumen. Introducción. La evolución natural de los aneurismas de aorta abdominal (AAA) grandes es su rotura si no se resecan en el momento oportuno. Objetivo. Conocer las causas de muerte en los pacientes con un AAA quirúrgico que no han sido operados mediante reparación abierta. Pacientes y métodos. Se estudia de forma retrospectiva a 128 pacientes con un AAA a los que no se realizó reparación abierta de forma electiva, en 38 casos (29,7%) por negativa del paciente a ser intervenido, en 64 (50%) por tener diversos factores de riesgo que aumentaban la mortalidad hospitalaria de forma significativa y en 26 (20,3%) por estar contraindicada la cirugía. Resultados. La edad media de los pacientes fue de 78 años y 107 eran varones (83,6%) (53-96). Se llevó a cabo un seguimiento medio de 32,7 meses (rango: 0,1-146 meses). Fallecieron 107 pacientes (83,6%), de los cuales 27 (25,2%) lo hicieron por causa cardíaca y 19 (17,8%) por rotura del AAA. De los 38 pacientes que rechazaron la cirugía, fallecieron 30 (78,9%), 9 de ellos (30,0%) por rotura del AAA. De los 64 pacientes no operados por riesgo quirúrgico elevado, fallecieron 51 (79,7%), pero sólo en 6 de ellos (9,4%) la causa fue la rotura aórtica. Finalmente, todos los pacientes no operados por contraindicación fallecieron, el 15,4% por rotura del aneurisma. Conclusiones. En este trabajo, la principal causa de muerte en los pacientes que rechazaron la cirugía electiva fue la rotura del AAA, mientras que en el resto, su fallecimiento se debió a la patología de base