Merger failures

This paper proposes an explanation as to why some mergers fail, based on the interaction between the pre- and post-merger processes. We argue that failure may stem from informational asymmetries arising from the pre-merger period, and problems of cooperation and coordination within recently merged firms. We show that a partner may optimally agree to merge and abstain from putting forth any post-merger effort, counting on the other partner to make the necessary efforts. If both follow the same course of action, the merger goes ahead but fails. Our unique equilibrium allows us to make predictions on which mergers are more likely to fail.Mergers, Synergies, Asymmetric Information, Complementarities

Financial Incentives in Academia: Research versus Development

This paper investigates the effects of monetary rewards on the pattern of research. We build a simple repeated model of a researcher capable to obtain innovative ideas. We analyse how the legal environment affects the allocation of researcher?s time between research and development. Although technology transfer objectives reduce the time spent in research, they might also induce  researchers to conduct research that is more basic in nature, contrary to what the ?skewing problem? would presage. We also show that our results hold even if development delays publication.Faculty behaviour, basic vs. applied research

Conglomeration with bankruptcy costs: Separate or joint financing?

The paper analyzes the determinants of the optimal scope of incorporation in the presence of bankruptcy costs. Bankruptcy costs alone generate a non-trivial tradeoff between the benefit of coinsurance and the cost of risk contamination associated to joint financing corporate projects through debt. This tradeoff is characterized for projects with binary returns, depending on the distributional characteristics of returns (mean, variability, skewness, heterogeneity, correlation, and number of projects), the bankruptcy recovery rate, and the tax rate advantage of debt relative to equity. Our testable predictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence on conglomerate mergers, spin-offs, project finance, and securitization.Bankruptcy, conglomeration, mergers, spin-offs, project finance

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfolios influences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.Electricity, market power, simulations, technology diversification

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paper explores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailing wholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include several behavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theory predictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not under fictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.Agent-based computational economics, electricity, market design, experience-weighted attraction (EWA), learning, supply functions, demand aggregation, initial beliefs.

Artifact-centric business process models in UML : specification and reasoning

Business processes are directly involved in the achievement of an organization's goals, and for this reason they should be performed in the best possible way. Modeling business processes can help to achieve this as, for instance, models can facilitate the communication between the people involved in the process, they provide a basis for process improvement and they can help perform process management. Processes can be modeled from many different perspectives. Traditional process modeling has followed the process-centric (or activity-centric) perspective, where the focus is on the sequencing of activities (i.e. the control flow), largely ignoring or underspecifying the data required by these tasks. In contrast, the artifact-centric (or data-centric) approach to process modeling focuses on defining the data required by the tasks and the details of the tasks themselves in terms of the changes they make to the data. The BALSA framework defines four dimensions which should be represented in any artifact-centric business process model: business artifacts, lifecycle, services (i.e. tasks) and associations. Using different types of models to represent these dimensions will result in distinct representations, whose differing characteristics (e.g. the degree of formality or understandability) will make them more appropriate for one purpose or another. Considering this, in the first part of this thesis we propose a framework, BAUML, for modeling business processes following an artifact-centric perspective. This framework is based on using a combination of UML and OCL models, and its goal is to have a final representation of the process which is both understandable and formal, to avoid ambiguities and errors. However, once a process model has been defined, it is important to ensure its quality. This will avoid the propagation of errors to the process's implementation. Although there are many different quality criteria, we focus on the semantic correctness of the model, answering questions such as "does it represent reality correctly?" or "are there any errors and contradictions in it?". Therefore, the second part of this thesis is concerned with finding a way to determine the semantic correctness of our BAUML models. We are interested in considering the BAUML model as a whole, including the meaning of the tasks. To do so, we first translate our models into a well-known framework, a DCDS (Data-centric Dynamic System) to which then modelchecking techniques can be applied. However, DCDSs have been defined theoretically and there is no tool that implements them. For this reason, we also created a prototype tool, AuRUS-BAUML, which is able to translate our BAUML models into logic and to reason on their semantic correctness using an existing tool, SVTe. The integration between AuRUS-BAUML and SVTe is transparent to the user. Logically, the thesis also presents the logic translation which is performed by the tool.Els processos de negoci estan directament relacionats amb els objectius de negoci, i per tant és important que aquests processos es duguin a terme de la millor manera possible. Optar per modelar-los pot ajudar a aconseguir-ho, ja que els models proporcionen nombrosos avantatges. Per exemple: faciliten la comunicació entre les parts involucrades en el procés, proporcionen una base a partir del qual millorar-lo, i poden ajudar a gestionar-lo. Els processos es poden modelar des de diferents perspectives. El modelat tradicional de processos s'ha basat molt en la perspectiva anomenada "process-centric" (centrada en processos) o "activity-centric" (centrada en activitats), que posa l'èmfasi en la seqüència d'activitats o tasques que s'han d'executar, ignorant en gran mesura les dades necessàries per dur a terme aquestes tasques. Per altra banda, la perspectiva "artifact-centric" (centrada en artefactes) o "data-centric" es basa en definir les dades que necessiten les tasques i els detalls de les tasques en si, representant els canvis que aquestes fan a les dades. El framework BALSA defineix quatre dimensions que haurien de representar-se en qualsevol model artifact-centric: els artefactes de negoci (business artifacts), els cicles de vida (lifecycles), els serveis (services) i les associacions (associations). Utilitzant diferents tipus de models per representar aquestes dimensions porta a obtenir diverses representacions amb característiques diferents. Aquesta varietat de característiques farà que els models resultants siguin més apropiats per un propòsit o per un altre. Considerant això, en la primera part d'aquesta tesi proposem un framework, BAUML, per modelar processos de negoci seguint una perspectiva artifact-centric. El framework es basa en utilitzar una combinació de models UML i OCL, i el seu objectiu és obtenir una representació final del procés que sigui a la vegada comprensible i formal, per tal d'evitar ambigüitats i errors. Un cop definit el procés, és important assegurar-ne la qualitat. Això evitarà la propagació d'errors a la implementació final del procés. Malgrat que hi ha molts criteris de qualitat diferents, ens centrarem en la correctesa semàntica del model, per respondre a preguntes com ara "representa la realitat correctament?" o "conté errors o contradiccions?". En conseqüència, la segona part d'aquesta tesi se centra en buscar una manera per determinar la correctesa semàntica d'un model BAUML. Ens interessa considerar el model com un tot, incloent el significat de les tasques (és a dir, el detall del que fan). Per aconseguir-ho, primer traduïm les tasques a un framework reconegut, DCDSs (Data-centric Dynamic Systems). Un cop obtingut, s'hi poden aplicar tècniques de model-checking per determinar si compleix certes propietats. Malauradament, els DCDSs s'han definit a nivell teòric i no hi ha cap eina que els implementi. Per aquest motiu, hem creat un prototip d'eina, AuRUS-BAUML, que és capaç de traduir els nostres models BAUML a lògica i aplicar-hi tècniques de raonament per determinar-ne la correctesa semàntica. Per la part de raonament, l'AuRUS-BAUML fa servir una eina existent, l'SVTe. La integració entre l'AuRUS-BAUML i l'SVTe és transparent de cara a l'usuari. Lògicament, la tesi també presenta la traducció a lògica que porta a terme l'eina

TV or not TV? Subtitling and English skills

We study the influence of television translation techniques on the quality of the English spoken across the EU and OCDE. We identify a large positive effect for subtitled original version as opposed to dubbed television, which loosely corresponds to between four and twenty years of compulsory English education at school. We also show that the importance of subtitled television is robust to a wide array of specifications. We then find that subtitling and better English skills have an influence on high-tech exports, international student mobility, and other economic and social outcomes.I21 i N00

Artifact-centric business process models in UML : specification and reasoning

Business processes are directly involved in the achievement of an organization's goals, and for this reason they should be performed in the best possible way. Modeling business processes can help to achieve this as, for instance, models can facilitate the communication between the people involved in the process, they provide a basis for process improvement and they can help perform process management. Processes can be modeled from many different perspectives. Traditional process modeling has followed the process-centric (or activity-centric) perspective, where the focus is on the sequencing of activities (i.e. the control flow), largely ignoring or underspecifying the data required by these tasks. In contrast, the artifact-centric (or data-centric) approach to process modeling focuses on defining the data required by the tasks and the details of the tasks themselves in terms of the changes they make to the data. The BALSA framework defines four dimensions which should be represented in any artifact-centric business process model: business artifacts, lifecycle, services (i.e. tasks) and associations. Using different types of models to represent these dimensions will result in distinct representations, whose differing characteristics (e.g. the degree of formality or understandability) will make them more appropriate for one purpose or another. Considering this, in the first part of this thesis we propose a framework, BAUML, for modeling business processes following an artifact-centric perspective. This framework is based on using a combination of UML and OCL models, and its goal is to have a final representation of the process which is both understandable and formal, to avoid ambiguities and errors. However, once a process model has been defined, it is important to ensure its quality. This will avoid the propagation of errors to the process's implementation. Although there are many different quality criteria, we focus on the semantic correctness of the model, answering questions such as "does it represent reality correctly?" or "are there any errors and contradictions in it?". Therefore, the second part of this thesis is concerned with finding a way to determine the semantic correctness of our BAUML models. We are interested in considering the BAUML model as a whole, including the meaning of the tasks. To do so, we first translate our models into a well-known framework, a DCDS (Data-centric Dynamic System) to which then modelchecking techniques can be applied. However, DCDSs have been defined theoretically and there is no tool that implements them. For this reason, we also created a prototype tool, AuRUS-BAUML, which is able to translate our BAUML models into logic and to reason on their semantic correctness using an existing tool, SVTe. The integration between AuRUS-BAUML and SVTe is transparent to the user. Logically, the thesis also presents the logic translation which is performed by the tool.Els processos de negoci estan directament relacionats amb els objectius de negoci, i per tant és important que aquests processos es duguin a terme de la millor manera possible. Optar per modelar-los pot ajudar a aconseguir-ho, ja que els models proporcionen nombrosos avantatges. Per exemple: faciliten la comunicació entre les parts involucrades en el procés, proporcionen una base a partir del qual millorar-lo, i poden ajudar a gestionar-lo. Els processos es poden modelar des de diferents perspectives. El modelat tradicional de processos s'ha basat molt en la perspectiva anomenada "process-centric" (centrada en processos) o "activity-centric" (centrada en activitats), que posa l'èmfasi en la seqüència d'activitats o tasques que s'han d'executar, ignorant en gran mesura les dades necessàries per dur a terme aquestes tasques. Per altra banda, la perspectiva "artifact-centric" (centrada en artefactes) o "data-centric" es basa en definir les dades que necessiten les tasques i els detalls de les tasques en si, representant els canvis que aquestes fan a les dades. El framework BALSA defineix quatre dimensions que haurien de representar-se en qualsevol model artifact-centric: els artefactes de negoci (business artifacts), els cicles de vida (lifecycles), els serveis (services) i les associacions (associations). Utilitzant diferents tipus de models per representar aquestes dimensions porta a obtenir diverses representacions amb característiques diferents. Aquesta varietat de característiques farà que els models resultants siguin més apropiats per un propòsit o per un altre. Considerant això, en la primera part d'aquesta tesi proposem un framework, BAUML, per modelar processos de negoci seguint una perspectiva artifact-centric. El framework es basa en utilitzar una combinació de models UML i OCL, i el seu objectiu és obtenir una representació final del procés que sigui a la vegada comprensible i formal, per tal d'evitar ambigüitats i errors. Un cop definit el procés, és important assegurar-ne la qualitat. Això evitarà la propagació d'errors a la implementació final del procés. Malgrat que hi ha molts criteris de qualitat diferents, ens centrarem en la correctesa semàntica del model, per respondre a preguntes com ara "representa la realitat correctament?" o "conté errors o contradiccions?". En conseqüència, la segona part d'aquesta tesi se centra en buscar una manera per determinar la correctesa semàntica d'un model BAUML. Ens interessa considerar el model com un tot, incloent el significat de les tasques (és a dir, el detall del que fan). Per aconseguir-ho, primer traduïm les tasques a un framework reconegut, DCDSs (Data-centric Dynamic Systems). Un cop obtingut, s'hi poden aplicar tècniques de model-checking per determinar si compleix certes propietats. Malauradament, els DCDSs s'han definit a nivell teòric i no hi ha cap eina que els implementi. Per aquest motiu, hem creat un prototip d'eina, AuRUS-BAUML, que és capaç de traduir els nostres models BAUML a lògica i aplicar-hi tècniques de raonament per determinar-ne la correctesa semàntica. Per la part de raonament, l'AuRUS-BAUML fa servir una eina existent, l'SVTe. La integració entre l'AuRUS-BAUML i l'SVTe és transparent de cara a l'usuari. Lògicament, la tesi també presenta la traducció a lògica que porta a terme l'eina.Postprint (published version

Theimpact of industry collaboration on research: Evidence from engineering academics in the UK

We study the impact of university-industry research collaborations on academic output, in terms of productivity and direction of research. We report findings from a longitudinal dataset on all the researchers from the engineering departments in the UK in the last 20 years. We control for the endogeneity caused by the dynamic nature of research and the existence of reverse causality. Our results indicate that researchers with industrial links publish significantly more. Productivity, though, is higher for low levels of industry involvement. Moreover, growing ties with the industry skew research towards a more applied approach.industry-science links, research collaborations, basic vs. applied research.

Merger Clusters during Economic Booms

Merger activity is intense during economic booms and subdued during recessions. This paper provides a non-financial explanation for this observable pattern. We construct a model in which the target-by setting the takeover price-screens the acquirer on his (expected) ability to realize synergy gains when merging. In an economic boom, it is less profitable to sort out relatively "bad fit" acquirers, leading to a hike in merger activity. Although positive economic shocks produce expected gains at the time of merging, these mergers turn out to be less efficient in the long term-a finding that is broadly consistent with the existing empirical evidence. Furthermore, again because of the absence of boom-time screening, the more efficient acquirers earn higher merger profits during "merger waves" than outside of waves, which is also in line with empirical evidence. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Fusionscluster in Boomphasen) In Zeiten wirtschaftlicher Hochkonjunktur ist die Zahl der Firmenzusammenschlüsse hoch, in Rezessionszeiten eher niedrig. Dieser Aufsatz gibt eine Erklärung für diese Beobachtung, die nicht auf rein finanzwirtschaftlichen Faktoren beruht. Im vorgestellten Modell ha das Unternehmen, welches übernommen wird, die Möglichkeit, den Übernahmepreis festzulegen und kann damit auch die übernehmende Firma auswählen. Das Auswahlkriterium sind die erwarteten Synergiegewinne im Falle einer Fusion, die für eine gute Passung der beiden fusionierenden Unternehmen sprechen. In Phasen der Hochkonjunktur ist es allerdings für Unternehmen generell interessant, zu fusionieren, und es wird relativ weniger profitabel, großen Auswahlaufwand zu treiben, um schlecht passende Fusionspartner auszusortieren und eventuell gar keinen Fusionspartner zu finden. Daher kommt es in diesen Zeiten zu mehr Fusionen als in anderen Konjunkturphasen, die als Fusionswellen bezeichnet werden. Zum Zeitpunkt der Fusion lassen sich auch die erwarteten Gewinne durch die günstige ökonomische Gesamtsituation realisieren. Im weiteren Verlauf stellen sich jedoch solche Fusionen mit schlecht passenden Partnern als wenig effizient heraus-was auch empirische Analysen bestätigt haben. Darüber hinaus zeigt das Modell, dass-wiederum wegen der fehlenden Auswahlprozedur in Boomphasen-die effizienteren Fusionspartner während Fusionswellen höhere Gewinne machen als außerhalb von Fusionswellen. Dies ist zuvor bereits empirisch beobachtet worden.Mergers, Merger Waves, Screening