Exploiting road traffic data for very short term load forecasting in smart grids

If accurate short term prediction of electricity consumption is available, the Smart Grid infrastructure can rapidly and reliably react to changing conditions. The economic importance of accurate predictions justifies research for more complex forecasting algorithms. This paper proposes road traffic data as a new input dimension that can help improve very short term load forecasting. We explore the dependencies between power demand and road traffic data and evaluate the predictive power of the added dimension compared with other common features, such as historical load and temperature profiles

Socio‐economic impact classification of alien taxa (SEICAT)

1 Many alien taxa are known to cause socio‐economic impacts by affecting the different constituents of human well‐being (security; material and non‐material assets; health; social, spiritual and cultural relations; freedom of choice and action). Attempts to quantify socio‐economic impacts in monetary terms are unlikely to provide a useful basis for evaluating and comparing impacts of alien taxa because they are notoriously difficult to measure and important aspects of human well‐being are ignored. 2 Here, we propose a novel standardised method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their impacts on human well‐being, based on the capability approach from welfare economics. The core characteristic of this approach is that it uses changes in peoples' activities as a common metric for evaluating impacts on well‐being. 2 Impacts are assigned to one of five levels, from Minimal Concern to Massive, according to semi‐quantitative scenarios that describe the severity of the impacts. Taxa are then classified according to the highest level of deleterious impact that they have been recorded to cause on any constituent of human well‐being. The scheme also includes categories for taxa that are not evaluated, have no alien population, or are data deficient, and a method for assigning uncertainty to all the classifications. To demonstrate the utility of the system, we classified impacts of amphibians globally. These showed a variety of impacts on human well‐being, with the cane toad (Rhinella marina) scoring Major impacts. For most species, however, no studies reporting impacts on human well‐being were found, i.e. these species were data deficient. 2 The classification provides a consistent procedure for translating the broad range of measures and types of impact into ranked levels of socio‐economic impact, assigns alien taxa on the basis of the best available evidence of their documented deleterious impacts, and is applicable across taxa and at a range of spatial scales. The system was designed to align closely with the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) and the Red List, both of which have been adopted by the International Union of Nature Conservation (IUCN), and could therefore be readily integrated into international practices and policies

Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept

Boom‐bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom‐bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom‐bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom‐bust concept. Boom‐bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom‐bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom‐bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom‐bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long‐term data sets that use clear definitions of boom‐bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations

Framework and guidelines for implementing the proposed IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT)

Recently, Blackburn et al. (2014) developed a simple, objective and transparent method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their detrimental environmental impacts in recipient areas. Here, we present a comprehensive framework and guidelines for implementing this method, which we term the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa, or EICAT. We detail criteria for applying the EICAT scheme in a consistent and comparable fashion, prescribe the supporting information that should be supplied along with classifications, and describe the process for implementing the method. This comment aims to draw the attention of interested parties to the framework and guidelines, and to present them in their entirety in a location where they are freely accessible to any potential users

The Economic Costs of Biological Invasions Around the World

Not applicabl

Distinct Biogeographic Phenomena Require a Specific Terminology: A Reply to Wilson and Sagoff

In a recent publication, we proposed that the increasing number of range-expanding species that track human induced environmental change warrant specific recognition in science and biodiversity management, and we proposed the term ‘neonative’ for these taxa. Here, we reply to two letters (Wilson 2019, Sagoff 2019) that criticised specific, yet different aspects presented in our publication. While we disagree on several points with both authors, we agree that a broader discourse is needed for developing robust and widely accepted definitions and terms for the ever more important phenomenon of neonative species

A proposed unified framework to describe the management of biological invasions

Managing the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) is a great societal challenge. A wide variety of terms have been used to describe the management of invasive alien species and the sequence in which they might be applied. This variety and lack of consistency creates uncertainty in the presentation and description of management in policy, science and practice. Here we expand on the existing description of the invasion process to develop an IAS management framework. We define the different forms of active management using a novel approach based on changes in species status, avoiding the need for stand-alone descriptions of management types, and provide a complete set of potential management activities. We propose a standardised set of management terminology as an emergent feature of this framework. We identified eight key forms of management: (1) pathway management, (2) interception, (3) limits to keeping, (4) secure keeping, (5) eradication, (6) complete reproductive removal, (7) containment and (8) suppression. We recognise four associated terms: prevention; captive management; rapid eradication; and long-term management, and note the use of impact mitigation and restoration as associated forms of management. We discuss the wider use of this framework and the supporting activities required to ensure management is well-targeted, cost-effective and makes best use of limited resources

European scenarios for future biological invasions

1. Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. 2. Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). 3. We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. 4. We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. 5. Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions