Inter-Individual Differences in Multivariate Time-Series:Latent Class Vector-Autoregressive Modeling

Theories of emotion regulation posit the existence of individual differences in emotion dynamics. Current multi-subject time-series models account for differences in dynamics across individuals only to a very limited extent. This results in an aggregation that may poorly apply at the individual level. We present the exploratory method of latent class vector-autoregressive modeling (LCVAR), which extends the timeseries models to include clustering of individuals with similar dynamic processes. LCVAR can identify individuals with similar emotion dynamics in intensive time-series, which may be of unequal length. The method performs excellently under a range of simulated conditions. The value of identifying clusters in time-series is illustrated using affect measures of 410 individuals, assessed at over 70 time points per individual. LCVAR discerned six clusters of distinct emotion dynamics with regard to diurnal patterns and augmentation and blunting processes between eight emotions

Insight Into Individual Differences in Emotion Dynamics With Clustering

Studying emotion dynamics through time series models is becoming increasingly popular in the social sciences. Across individuals, dynamics can be rather heterogeneous. To enable comparisons and generalizations of dynamics across groups of individuals, one needs sophisticated tools that express the essential similarities and differences. A way to proceed is to identify subgroups of people who are characterized by qualitatively similar emotion dynamics through dynamic clustering. So far, these methods assume equal generating processes for individuals per cluster. To avoid this overly restrictive assumption, we outline a probabilistic clustering approach based on a mixture model that clusters on individuals’ vector autoregressive coefficients. We evaluate the performance of the method and compare it with a nonprobabilistic method in a simulation study. The usefulness of the methods is illustrated using 366 ecological momentary assessment time series with external measures of depression and anxiety

Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice—a systematic review of common misconceptions

Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking

The Effect of Preregistration on Trust in Empirical Research Findings:Results of a Registered Report

The crisis of confidence has undermined the trust that researchers place in the findings of their peers. In order to increase trust in research, initiatives such as preregistration have been suggested, which aim to prevent various questionable research practices. As it stands, however, no empirical evidence exists that preregistration does increase perceptions of trust. The picture may be complicated by a researcher's familiarity with the author of the study, regardless of the preregistration status of the research. This registered report presents an empirical assessment of the extent to which preregistration increases the trust of 209 active academics in the reported outcomes, and how familiarity with another researcher influences that trust. Contrary to our expectations, we report ambiguous Bayes factors and conclude that we do not have strong evidence towards answering our research questions. Our findings are presented along with evidence that our manipulations were ineffective for many participants, leading to the exclusion of 68% of complete datasets, and an underpowered design as a consequence. We discuss other limitations and confounds which may explain why the findings of the study deviate from a previously conducted pilot study. We reflect on the benefits of using the registered report submission format in light of our results. The OSF page for this registered report and its pilot can be found here: http://dx.doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/B3K75

Do Researchers Anchor their Beliefs on the Outcome of an Initial Study? Testing the Time-Reversal Heuristic

As a research field expands, scientists have to update their knowledge and integrate the outcomes of a sequence of studies. However, such integrative judgments are generally known to fall victim to a primacy bias where people anchor their judgments on the initial information. In this preregistered study we tested the hypothesis that people anchor on the outcome of a small initial study, reducing the impact of a larger subsequent study that contradicts the initial result. Contrary to our expectation, undergraduates and academics displayed a recency bias, anchoring their judgment on the research outcome presented last. This recency bias is due to the fact that unsuccessful replications decreased trust in an effect more than did unsuccessful initial experiments. We recommend the time-reversal heuristic to account for temporal order effects during integration of research results

Deficiency of annexins A5 and A6 induces complex changes in the transcriptome of growth plate cartilage but does not inhibit the induction of mineralization

Initiation of mineralization during endochondral ossification is a multistep process and has been assumed to correlate with specific interactions of annexins A5 and A6 and collagens. However, skeletal development appears to be normal in mice deficient for either A5 or A6, and the highly conserved structures led to the assumption that A5 and A6 may fulfill redundant functions. We have now generated mice deficient of both proteins. These mice were viable and fertile and showed no obvious abnormalities. Assessment of skeletal elements using histologic, ultrastructural, and peripheral quantitative computed tomographic methods revealed that mineralization and development of the skeleton were not significantly affected in mutant mice. Otherwise, global gene expression analysis showed subtle changes at the transcriptome level of genes involved in cell growth and intermediate metabolism. These results indicate that annexins A5 and A6 may not represent the essential annexins that promote mineralization in vivo

Cancer risk in MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutation carriers; different risk profiles may influence clinical management

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is associated with a high risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) and extracolonic malignancies, such as endometrial carcinoma (EC). The risk is dependent of the affected mismatch repair gene. The aim of the present study was to calculate the cumulative risk of LS related cancers in proven MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutation carriers.Methods: The studypopulation consisted out of 67 proven LS families. Clinical information including mutation status and tumour diagnosis was collected. Cumulative risks were calculated and compared using Kaplan Meier survival analysis.Results: MSH6 mutation carriers, both males and females had the lowest risk for developing CRC at age 70 years, 54% and 30% respectively and the age of onset was delayed by 3-5 years in males. With respect to endometrial carcinoma, female MSH6 mutation carriers had the highest risk at age 70 years (61%) compared to MLH1 (25%) and MSH2 (49%). Also, the age of EC onset was delayed by 5-10 years in comparison with MLH1 and MSH2.Conclusions: Although the cumulative lifetime risk of LS related cancer is similar, MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutations seem to cause distinguishable cancer risk profiles. Female MSH6 mutation carriers have a lower CRC risk and a higher risk for developing endometrial carcinoma. As a consequence, surveillance colonoscopy starting at age 30 years instead of 20-25 years is more suitable. Also, prophylactic hysterectomy may be more indicated in female MSH6 mutation carriers compared to MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers

Structural constraints for the Crh protein from solid-state NMR experiments

We demonstrate that short, medium and long-range constraints can be extracted from proton mediated, rare-spin detected correlation solid-state NMR experiments for the microcrystalline 10.4 × 2 kDa dimeric model protein Crh. Magnetization build-up curves from cross signals in NHHC and CHHC spectra deliver detailed information on side chain conformers and secondary structure for interactions between spin pairs. A large number of medium and long-range correlations can be observed in the spectra, and an analysis of the resolved signals reveals that the constraints cover the entire sequence, also including inter-monomer contacts between the two molecules forming the domain-swapped Crh dimer. Dynamic behavior is shown to have an impact on cross signals intensities, as indicated for mobile residues or regions by contacts predicted from the crystal structure, but absent in the spectra. Our work validates strategies involving proton distance measurements for large and complex proteins as the Crh dimer, and confirms the magnetization transfer properties previously described for small molecules in solid protein samples