Loss Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (Dose)

We introduce DOSE - Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation - and use it to estimate individual-level loss aversion in a representative sample of the U.S. population (N = 2;000). DOSE elicitations are more accurate, more stable across time, and faster to administer than standard methods. We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant. This is counter to earlier findings, which mostly come from lab/student samples, that a strong majority of participants are loss averse. Loss attitudes are correlated with cognitive ability: loss aversion is more prevalent in people with high cognitive ability, and loss tolerance is more common in those with low cognitive ability. We also use DOSE to document facts about risk and time preferences, indicating a high potential for DOSE in future research

Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated than You Think

An enormous literature documents that willingness to pay (WTP) is less than willingness to accept (WTA) a monetary amount for an object, a phenomenon called the endowment effect. Using data from an incentivized survey of a representative sample of 3,000 U.S. adults, we add one (probably) surprising additional finding: WTA and WTP for a lottery are, at best, slightly correlated. Across all respondents, the correlation is slightly negative. A meta-study of published experiments with university students shows a correlation of around 0.15--0.2, consistent with the correlation in our data for high-IQ respondents. While poorly related to each other, WTA and WTP are closely related to different measures of risk aversion, and relatively stable across time. We show that the endowment effect is not related to individual-level measures of loss aversion, counter to Prospect Theory or Stochastic Reference Dependence

Econographics

We study the pattern of correlations across a large number of behavioral regularities, with the goal of creating an empirical basis for more comprehensive theories of decision-making. We elicit 21 behaviors using an incentivized survey on a representative sample (n = 1;000) of the U.S. population. Our data show a clear and relatively simple structure underlying the correlations between these measures. Using principal components analysis, we reduce the 21 variables to six components corresponding to clear clusters of high correlations. We examine the relationship between these components, cognitive ability, and demographics, and discuss the theoretical implications of the structure we uncover

Using inertial measurement units to quantify shoulder elevation after reverse total shoulder arthroplasty: a pilot study comparing goniometric measures captured clinically to inertial measures captured ‘in-the-wild’

Background: Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA) is utilized for a variety of indications, but most commonly for patients with rotator cuff arthropathy. This procedure reduces pain, improves satisfaction, and increases clinically measured range of motion (ROM). However, traditional clinical ROM measurements captured via goniometer may not accurately represent ‘real-world’ utilization of ROM. In contrast, inertial measurement units (IMUs) are useful for establishing ROM outside the clinical setting. We sought to measure ‘real-world’ ROM after rTSA using IMUs. Methods: A previously validated IMU-based method for continuously capturing shoulder elevation was used to assess 10 individuals receiving rTSA (1M, 82 ± 5 years) and compared to a previously captured 10 healthy individuals (4M, 69 ± 20 years) without shoulder dysfunction. Control subject data were previously collected over 1 week of continuous use. Patients undergoing rTSA donned sensors for 1 week pre-rTSA, 6 weeks at 3 months post-rTSA following clearance to perform active-independent ROM, and 1 week at 1 year and 2 years post-rTSA. Shoulder elevation was computed continuously each day. Daily continuous elevation was broken into 5° angle ‘bins’ (eg, 0-5°, 5-10°, etc.) and converted to percentage of the total day. IMU-based outcome measures were ROM binned percent (as described previously) and maximum/average elevation each week. Clinical goniometric ROM and patient-reported outcome measures were also captured. Results: No differences existed between patient and healthy control demographics. While patients showed improvement in American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeon (ASES) score, pain score, and goniometric ROM, IMU-based average and maximum elevation were equal between control subjects and patients both pre- and post-rTSA. The percent of time spent above 90° was equal between cohorts pre-rTSA, rose significantly at 3 months post-rTSA, and returned to preoperative levels thereafter. Discussion: Although pain, satisfaction, and ROM measured clinically may improve following rTSA, real-world utilization of improved ROM was not seen herein. Improvements during the acute rehabilitation phase may be transient, indicating longer or more specific rehabilitation protocols are necessary to see chronic improvements in post-rTSA movement patterns

Pharmacometabolomics reveals racial differences in response to atenolol treatment.

Antihypertensive drugs are among the most commonly prescribed drugs for chronic disease worldwide. The response to antihypertensive drugs varies substantially between individuals and important factors such as race that contribute to this heterogeneity are poorly understood. In this study we use metabolomics, a global biochemical approach to investigate biochemical changes induced by the beta-adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol in Caucasians and African Americans. Plasma from individuals treated with atenolol was collected at baseline (untreated) and after a 9 week treatment period and analyzed using a GC-TOF metabolomics platform. The metabolomic signature of atenolol exposure included saturated (palmitic), monounsaturated (oleic, palmitoleic) and polyunsaturated (arachidonic, linoleic) free fatty acids, which decreased in Caucasians after treatment but were not different in African Americans (p<0.0005, q<0.03). Similarly, the ketone body 3-hydroxybutyrate was significantly decreased in Caucasians by 33% (p<0.0001, q<0.0001) but was unchanged in African Americans. The contribution of genetic variation in genes that encode lipases to the racial differences in atenolol-induced changes in fatty acids was examined. SNP rs9652472 in LIPC was found to be associated with the change in oleic acid in Caucasians (p<0.0005) but not African Americans, whereas the PLA2G4C SNP rs7250148 associated with oleic acid change in African Americans (p<0.0001) but not Caucasians. Together, these data indicate that atenolol-induced changes in the metabolome are dependent on race and genotype. This study represents a first step of a pharmacometabolomic approach to phenotype patients with hypertension and gain mechanistic insights into racial variability in changes that occur with atenolol treatment, which may influence response to the drug

Planes of satellites around Milky Way/M31-mass galaxies in the FIRE simulations and comparisons with the Local Group

We examine the prevalence, longevity, and causes of planes of satellite dwarf galaxies, as observed in the Local Group. We use 14 Milky Way/Andromeda-(MW/M31) mass host galaxies from the FIRE-2 simulations. We select the 14 most massive satellites by stellar mass within 300 kpc of each host and correct for incompleteness from the foreground galactic disc when comparing to the MW. We find that MW-like planes as spatially thin and/or kinematically coherent as observed are uncommon, but they do exist in our simulations. Spatially thin planes occur in 1-2 per cent of snapshots during $z=0-0.2$, and kinematically coherent planes occur in 5 per cent of snapshots. These planes are generally transient, surviving for less than 500 Myr. However, if we select hosts with an LMC-like satellite near first pericentre, the fraction of snapshots with MW-like planes increases dramatically to 7-16 per cent, with lifetimes of 0.7-1 Gyr, likely because of group accretion of satellites. We find that M31's satellite distribution is much more common: M31's satellites lie within about 1 sigma of the simulation median for every plane metric we consider. We find no significant difference in average satellite planarity for isolated hosts versus hosts in LG-like pairs. Baryonic and dark matter-only simulations exhibit similar levels of planarity, even though baryonic subhaloes are less centrally concentrated within their host haloes. We conclude that planes of satellites are not a strong challenge to LCDM cosmology.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures. Main results in Figures 2 and 7. Accepted by MNRA

Modeling and Control Design for a Turboelectric Single Aisle Aircraft Propulsion System

A nonlinear dynamic model with full flight envelope controller is developed for the propulsion system of a partially turboelectric single-aisle aircraft. The propulsion system model consists of two turbofan engines with a large percentage of power extraction, feeding an electric tail fan for boundary layer ingestion. The dynamic model is compared against an existing steady state design model. An electrical system model using a simple power flow approach is integrated into existing modeling tools used for dynamic simulation of the turbomachinery of the vehicle. In addition to the simple power flow model of the electrical system, a more detailed model is used for comparison at a key vehicle transient flight condition. The controller is a gain scheduled proportional-integral type that is examined throughout the flight envelope for performance metrics such as rise time and operability margins. Potential improvements in efficiency for the vehicle are explored by adjusting the power split between the energy used for thrust by the turbofans and that extracted to supply power to the tail fan. Finally, an operability study of the vehicle is conducted using a 900 nautical mile mission profile for a nominal vehicle configuration, a deteriorated propulsion system at the end of its operating life, and an optimized power schedule with improved efficiency