Predicting Fed Forecasts

Monetary policy decisions by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee have attracted considerable attention in recent years, especially with quantitative easing through large-scale asset purchases, the introduction of forward guidance, and increases in the federal funds rate. The FOMC's decisions are based in part on the Greenbook forecasts, which are economic forecasts produced by the Federal Reserve Board's staff and which are presented to the FOMC prior to their policy meetings. Drawing on Stekler and Symington's (2016) textual analysis of the minutes of the FOMC meetings, the current paper shows that those minutes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff's Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook's public release. The FOMC minutes are thus highly informative about a key input to monetary policymaking

A retrospective on J.D. Sargan and his contribution to Econometrics

This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised - students were a substantive facet of his profesional life. Finally, two of Denis' previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print. Keywords; dynamic specification, econometrics, error correction model, finite sample distributions, identification, instrumental variables, model building, numerical computation, prices, production function, specification searches, wages

Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration

This paper provides cumulative distribution functions, densities, and finite sample critical values for the single-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo simulations and highlight simple dependencies of the statistic's quantiles on the number of variables in the error correction model, the choice of deterministic components, and the estimation sample size. The response surfaces provide a convenient way for calculating finite sample critical values at standard levels; and a computer program, freely available over the Internet, can be used to calculate both critical values and p-values. Three empirical examples illustrate these tools.

The role of guidelines and the patient's life-style in GPs' management of hypercholesterolaemia

BACKGROUND: Recent Swedish and joint European guidelines on hyperlipidaemia stress the high coronary risk for patients with already established arterio-sclerotic disease (secondary prevention) or diabetes. For the remaining group, calculation of the ten-year risk for coronary events using the Framingham equation is suggested. There is evidence that use of and adherence to guidelines is incomplete and that tools for risk estimations are seldom used. Intuitive risk estimates are difficult and systematically biased. The purpose of the study was to examine how GPs use knowledge of guidelines in their decisions to recommend or not recommend a cholesterol-lowering drug and the reasons for their decisions. METHODS: Twenty GPs were exposed to six case vignettes presented on a computer. In the course of six screens, successively more information was added to the case. The doctors were instructed to think aloud while processing the cases (Think-Aloud Protocols) and finally to decide for or against drug treatment. After the six cases they were asked to describe how they usually reason when they meet patients with high cholesterol values (Free-Report Protocols). The two sets of protocols were coded for cause-effect relations that were supposed to reflect the doctors' knowledge of guidelines. The Think-Aloud Protocols were also searched for reasons for the decisions to prescribe or not to prescribe. RESULTS: According to the protocols, the GPs were well aware of the importance of previous coronary heart disease and diabetes in their decisions. On the other hand, only a few doctors mentioned other arterio-sclerotic diseases like stroke and peripheral artery disease as variables affecting their decisions. There were several instances when the doctors' decisions apparently deviated from their knowledge of the guidelines. The arguments for the decisions in these cases often concerned aspects of the patient's life-style like smoking or overweight- either as risk-increasing factors or as alternative strategies for intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Coding verbal protocols for knowledge and for decision arguments seems to be a valuable tool for increasing our understanding of how guidelines are used in the on treatment of hypercholesterolaemia. By analysing arguments for treatment decisions it was often possible to understand why departures from the guidelines were made. While the need for decision support is obvious, the current guidelines may be too simple in some respects

In vivo monitoring of neuronal loss in traumatic brain injury: a microdialysis study

Traumatic brain injury causes diffuse axonal injury and loss of cortical neurons. These features are well recognized histologically, but their in vivo monitoring remains challenging. In vivo cortical microdialysis samples the extracellular fluid adjacent to neurons and axons. Here, we describe a novel neuronal proteolytic pathway and demonstrate the exclusive neuro-axonal expression of Pavlov’s enterokinase. Enterokinase is membrane bound and cleaves the neurofilament heavy chain at positions 476 and 986. Using a 100 kDa microdialysis cut-off membrane the two proteolytic breakdown products, extracellular fluid neurofilament heavy chains NfH476−986 and NfH476−1026, can be quantified with a relative recovery of 20%. In a prospective clinical in vivo study, we included 10 patients with traumatic brain injury with a median Glasgow Coma Score of 9, providing 640 cortical extracellular fluid samples for longitudinal data analysis. Following high-velocity impact traumatic brain injury, microdialysate extracellular fluid neurofilament heavy chain levels were significantly higher (6.18 ± 2.94 ng/ml) and detectable for longer (>4 days) compared with traumatic brain injury secondary to falls (0.84 ± 1.77 ng/ml, <2 days). During the initial 16 h following traumatic brain injury, strong correlations were found between extracellular fluid neurofilament heavy chain levels and physiological parameters (systemic blood pressure, anaerobic cerebral metabolism, excessive brain tissue oxygenation, elevated brain temperature). Finally, extracellular fluid neurofilament heavy chain levels were of prognostic value, predicting mortality with an odds ratio of 7.68 (confidence interval 2.15–27.46, P = 0.001). In conclusion, this study describes the discovery of Pavlov’s enterokinase in the human brain, a novel neuronal proteolytic pathway that gives rise to specific protein biomarkers (NfH476−986 and NfH476−1026) applicable to in vivo monitoring of diffuse axonal injury and neuronal loss in traumatic brain injury

Biochemical characterization and low-resolution SAXS shape of a novel GH11 exo-1,4-β-xylanase identified in a microbial consortium

Biotechnologies that aim to produce renewable fuels, chemicals, and bioproducts from residual ligno(hemi)cellulosic biomass mostly rely on enzymatic depolymerization of plant cell walls (PCW). This process requires an arsenal of diverse enzymes, including xylanases, which synergistically act on the hemicellulose, reducing the long and complex xylan chains to oligomers and simple sugars. Thus, xylanases play a crucial role in PCW depolymerization. Until recently, the largest xylanase family, glycoside hydrolase family 11 (GH11) has been exclusively represented by endo-catalytic β-1,4- and β-1,3-xylanases. Analysis of a metatranscriptome library from a microbial lignocellulose community resulted in the identification of an unusual exo-acting GH11 β-1,4-xylanase (MetXyn11). Detailed characterization has been performed on recombinant MetXyn11 including determination of its low-resolution small angle Xray scattering (SAXS) molecular envelope in solution. Our results reveal that MetXyn11 is a monomeric globular enzyme that liberates xylobiose from heteroxylans as the only product. MetXyn11 has an optimal activity in a pH range from 6 to 9 and an optimal temperature of 50 oC. The enzyme maintained above 65% of its original activity in the pH range 5 to 6 after being incubated for 72 h at 50 oC. Addition of the enzyme to a commercial enzymatic cocktail (CelicCtec3) promoted a significant increase of enzymatic hydrolysis yields of hydrothermally pretreated sugarcane bagasse (16% after 24 h of hydrolysis)

A retrospective on J.D. Sargan and his contribution to Econometrics

This retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised - students were a substantive facet of his profesional life. Finally, two of Denis' previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print